Ecological damage will take its toll on farming

Former Director, National Security Council Secretariat 

Even as the struggle to save lives continues, we can see a strong link between the Chamoli tragedy and the farmers’ agitation hundreds of kilometres away. That commonality lies up in the Himalayas, and it arises from a problem that few in India know much about, or even if they do, think that it’s something that can be set aside for another day.

Despite the overwhelming evidence of the destruction wrought by the flash floods, or the memories of the Kedarnath tragedy, few care to look at the problem head-on. Within the government, the ongoing pretence is that each problem can have cash thrown at it and passed on. It can’t.

The flash flood — a rather understated term for several thousand tonnes of snow, ice and debris rushing through a valley at about 20 metres per second — is now understood to have been caused by a hanging glacier breaking off, thereby creating a mass with a 20-25 metre head, that gathered further debris as it hit the under-construction Rishiganga power project and then the Tapovan power project further downstream.

These are the findings of the Defence Geo Informatics Research Establishment (DGIRE), an establishment created last year by merging two other institutions, both researching high-altitude mountain terrain. Both are focussed on defence, rather than the environment. Both are inextricably interlinked, but as their own experts admit, there is little ability for daily data gathering to be able to predict a disaster.

The thing is you don’t need a daily dose of data to be able to say that the whole glacier belt is in serious danger. The Himalayas, often called the ‘Third Pole’ for the quantity of ice and thereby water that it provides, has seen its glaciers retreating, with this worsening at least since 2005.

A startling example is of the Gangotri glacier retreating 850 metres between 1996 and 1999. In recent years, black carbon deposits due to stubble burning and forest fires have hastened that process. Gaumukh has already been pushed back several metres. The Rongbuk glacier, which feeds Tibet, is similarly placed, and Chinese glaciers are similarly affected. In sum, waters that feed the Ganga, the Indus, the Brahmaputra, the Salween, the Mekong, the Yangtze and the Yellow river are all going to face initially a huge rush of water, flash floods and avalanches, followed eventually by drought.

It is not just India, but also China, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar that are affected. And with some 25,000 glacial lakes, expect repeats of the Uttarakhand tragedy. Everyone is affected, and everyone will face disasters, China included. The presence of a large number of forces in the sensitive Ladakh area is not doing any good either. Expect an acceleration of decay and natural disasters.

There’s a second issue that worsens all of this. Few again have heard of the Asian Brown Cloud (ABC) which is not to be confused with your computer’s back-up plans. The ABC is a man- made cloud of carbon emissions, dust and other poisons released by ‘developed’ cities, trapping the air across continents, including China and Southeast Asia. That means less sunlight, less rain, and an inverse warming effect that also means glaciers will melt at a faster rate. It also causes unusual weather patterns, which means your farmers are going to have to deal with erratic weather.

And to sum that all up, farmers depending on water will find less rain, less river water, and polluted air that doesn’t allow crops to grow. So, the farmers protesting against the farm laws today could soon be in deep trouble, even as groundwater depletion continues to accelerate across Punjab in particular. It’s an entirely closed loop. The more the burning of agricultural waste and other pollutants, the less the chances of survival of present crop patterns, and down the road, any crops at all.

Now, consider the government’s plans. The Rishiganga power project was pushed through despite committee after committee warning against its building. Meanwhile, mega-dams are back with the Centre, the spending of about Rs 1.3 trillion planned for multipurpose dams such as the Etalin and Dibang in Arunachal Pradesh, Athirapally in Kerala, and Bodhghat in Chhattisgarh. Two are in ecologically sensitive zones, and the others will involve displacement of entire tribal villages.

In a twist, these large projects have been slotted as ‘alternative energy’ programmes, which means getting environmental clearance is easier. In addition, the Environment Ministry has decided to classify ‘small’ HP projects as ‘linear’ (like a road) which exempts it from Gram Sabha permission. Its Environmental Impact Assessment 2020 report tells its own tale, as it was attempted to be rushed through during a pandemic.

The ministry could argue the project delay due to multiple levels of decision- making, and it would be right. But those multiple levels were designed to prevent just such a disaster as the Chamoli tragedy. The answer is not to ride roughshod over the environment. It is to generate admittedly much-needed power by alternative means including solar, wind and even micro dams. It is all doable. What’s needed is an understanding of the utmost urgency at the top.

Finally, given the constant need to compare our own growth to that of China, remember that Beijing’s environmental policies plan to come down heavily on polluters, even as its own environmental problems multiply. With the initiation of disengagement in Ladakh, another confidence-building measure between the two sides can be a data-gathering exercise for the entire Himalayan area.

Sure, both are going to do it anyway for defence purposes. It simply requires an expansion of data collection and placing of ground and space assets to do so. Again, Beijing will do it anyway. Delhi might as well play catch-up.