Exalted status will spur Xi’s adventurism

AS expected, the Sixth Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) meeting held in Beijing from November 7 to 11 exalted the status of its General Secretary Xi Jinping by including him in a historic resolution which features its two titans, former Chairman Mao Zedong and senior leader Deng Xiaoping. It eulogised Xi for propounding “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” which embodies the “essence of the Chinese culture and represents a new breakthrough in adapting Marxism to the Chinese context”.

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Xi was praised for his anti-corruption campaign, abolition of extreme poverty, attaining a “moderately prosperous society” and an improvement in China’s global status. He was described as a great leader who could solve China’s problems his predecessors could not such as ensuring that Hong Kong and Macau were governed by the “patriots” — a reference to the national security law imposed by him in June 2020 (abrogating the “one country two systems” principle under which Hong Kong had re-joined China in 1997).

Xi was applauded for “turning a crisis into opportunity”— a reference to China’s unprovoked aggression against India in Ladakh, occupation of the disputed territories claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam, Japan and others, and threatening Taiwan after April 2020 when these countries were busy fighting Covid-19, for whose origin and global spread many hold China responsible.

The party’s first historical resolution, passed in 1945, “examined the missteps during the first 34 years of the revolution, mainly by Mao’s former opponents, who it was believed were influenced by Moscow or were too radical”. The resolution was used to correct their mistakes and unify the thoughts among the party members.

The 1981 resolution tried to end the bitter debate about how to view Mao’s legacy and struck a balance by denouncing Mao’s Cultural Revolution as a “disaster” while appreciating his role as the founding father of modern China. The resolution extolled the process of reform and opening up initiated by Deng Xiaoping in 1979 that laid the foundation for much of China’s economic progress later.

The present resolution for Xi did not examine any of the party’s mistakes which, according to several critics in China and abroad, are many, such as large-scale violation of human rights in Xinjiang and Tibet, suppression of dissent and criticism within and outside the CCP, reversal of several political and economic reforms, and doing away with presidential term limits introduced under Deng Xiaoping.

The party’s claim of an improvement in China’s global status under Xi is also dubious. China may have boosted its relations with some countries by making large investments (which in many cases have turned unproductive, adding to their debt liability) but her global image today is at an all-time low following the aggressive and hostile posturing and unfair economic policies adopted by Xi.

Xi’s critics are saying that he has used his control of the party to build his personality cult and propagate his own rule indefinitely. He has usurped the powers of his colleagues in the Politburo Standing Committee and the State Council to control the entire security apparatus, i.e. the armed forces and the armed police. Nicknamed the ‘Chairman of Everything’, Xi has amassed all powers relating to decisions on economic and other important issues.

China is vying with the US to seek global dominance and refashion the present international order to its advantage. To realise this objective, Xi has embarked China on the biggest military build-up in peacetime in human history by building the largest navy of about 350 ships and submarines. Under his direction, China is sharply increasing its nuclear arsenal and could accumulate about 1,000 deliverable warheads by 2030, according to a US Defence Department report (2021).

China has assembled the third biggest air force with over 2,800 aircraft, including fighters, strategic bombers and multi-mission tactical and attack aircraft. It is building a large inventory of inter-continental ballistic missiles and road-mobile intermediate-range ballistic missiles capable of delivering both conventional and nuclear warheads. In 2020, it began fielding its first operational hypersonic weapons system, the DF-17 hypersonic glide vehicle capable of delivering medium-range ballistic missiles. China continues to develop counter-space capabilities, including direct ascent, co-orbital, electronic warfare and directed energy capabilities, which can contest and deny an adversary’s access to and operations in space during a conflict.

The asseveration of Xi’s political supremacy will give him added clout in placing his favourites in important echelons of power at the party congress in 2022 when he is expected to seek a third term as President. The historic resolution will make it more difficult for his critics to challenge his policies as that would amount to contesting the party’s narrative of history.

Since Xi’s ascent to power, China has taken an aggressive and expansionary turn, reasserting its claim on the disputed territories as “sovereignty issues” where “it would not concede an inch” (instead of negotiations earlier). Its confrontation with the US over Taiwan is escalating after the latter made it known that she and her allies would come to Taiwan’s defence. China has increased militarisation of its borders with India, ASEAN countries, Japan and Taiwan by constructing new airfields, missile silos, highways, railways, deploying latest weaponry, undertaking provocative military drills and setting up civilian villages to fortify and defend its claims.

Xi’s exalted status will make him more prone to undertaking adventurous initiatives to constantly prove at home that he is delivering on the commitments he had promised to the party. Given that the US, its allies and partners have started pushing back Xi’s aggressive policies, the rivalries, confrontation and arms build-up in South and East Asia would intensify. Past experience has shown that Chinese rulers are not averse to initiating an armed conflict to buttress their domestic standing; the latest resolution would push this region even more in that direction.