Facing the 'aftermath'

Gurbachan Jagat

A s the world transits out of the pandemic and its more immediate medical and health fallout, we all stand to face the ‘aftermath’ — which appears to take on economic, political and social facets. The pandemic, by virtue of the many lockdowns, phased closings and re-openings, work from home, furloughs, etc, created disruptions which had deep repercussions for the economic, social and psychological aspects of human life. We were brought face to face with our mortality, our limitations — physical, scientific, mental and financial. These disruptions, coupled with the limitations of resources and ability, resulted in stressing pre-existing faultlines, which always exist in the political, economic and social spheres of human civilisation. The collective impact of both fiscal and monetary policies by the governments and central banks of USA, Europe and other developed and developing economies flooded the financial system with liquidity, which has resulted in severely high inflation rates. The war between Ukraine and Russia has only added to this problem. Consequently, the tightening actions by these central banks (increasing lending rates) is leading to severe stress in developing economies and we already have defaults in Sri Lanka, Russia and Belarus (though war sanctions led to the latter two defaults). According to a recent article in The Guardian, already about 60 per cent of low-income countries and about 25 per cent of emerging markets are either in debt distress or at high risk of it. The dollar has soared on the world’s currency markets. Since 90 per cent of the emerging market debt is denominated in dollars, a stronger US currency makes repayments punitively expensive. Borrowing costs for highly indebted countries have shot up with bond yields going up sharply.

This brings me to our country, which is all set to become the most populated. A nation which has just celebrated its 75th year of Independence and in this short span has found its place in the top five or six economies of the world, yet a nation which sadly remains a low-income country with a vast majority of its population living at mere subsistence levels. As per government records, 80 crore people were given handouts of rice and pulses for survival. How will we deal with the ‘aftermath’? Even if we were to ignore the statistics by international agencies about our hunger index or economic disparity, the stark reality stares us in the face daily. The pandemic has only increased it, both unemployment and inflation. In the last few days, I’ve been seeing photographs of thousands of young men camping on railway platforms across UP presumably heading for Lucknow or other cities to compete for jobs advertised by the UP government. I do not know about the number of vacancies announced, but the response of those seeking jobs is overwhelming. The photographs remind you of those taken a couple of years back after the lockdown when lakhs of migrant labourers left the cities for their villages... on foot, cycle, truck, train. The present scenes look like a reverse migration to cities in search of employment. Where were all these youth in the last few years, obviously unemployed or employed on manual labour under MNREGA. The race for government jobs amongst the rural youth proves that the agriculture sector cannot absorb them. Even otherwise, it has been hit hard over the decades as landholdings have shrunk to negligible levels and government policy at best has been indifferent.

Unemployment on such a large scale, a sliding rupee, high inflation, increasing disparity and overall havoc wrought by Covid have all resulted in threatening the internal and external security situation of our country. Internally, we are seeing an uptick in normal crimes viz. murders, robberies, kidnappings, rape, etc. I’m not going to quote any figures. I’ve served in the police and other administrative positions and learnt how misleading these can be. For a judgment on the law and order situation, the correct index is the question: do the people of the area feel secure or not? Going by this yardstick, people in urban areas, especially in metropolitan cities in North and North-East India, do not feel secure at all. Kidnappings, rape, snatchings leave a deep psychological impact. We never get to know how many of the accused were convicted — a miserably low percentile, I’m sure.

Another recent phenomenon is the rise of gangs in rural and urban areas. One read of the gangs in New York, Chicago and Soho and those of Paris, even Mumbai, but gangs operating in rural and urban India? They move about openly armed with automatic weapons and communication systems. They announce their kills on the Internet and also issue threats from abroad and from here. Arrests are regularly announced, arms recovered, but a fresh lot appears. It seems that the vast recruiting grounds of the unemployed are the source and added to it is the glamour being attached. Folk singers sing paens to their achievements and a new culture of a violent cult has evolved. Additionally, the drug culture has evolved, regarding both users and smugglers. Where there used to be liquor, opium, marijuana, now coke, heroin, pharmaceutical drugs of a certain kind reign supreme. The rural areas, the urban poor and the gentry are all users.

The smuggling syndicates are huge and indulge in humongous operations. Containers of drugs are routinely found on the Gujarat and Maharashtra coasts — who are the shadowy figures behind this? Earlier, we used to know the names of the important smugglers, financiers, couriers, etc; now, nothing is there in the public sphere. The harm they are doing to the health of the youth, our economy and internal security is immense. These gangs and smugglers are intricately involved with those operating against our internal security. They have the contacts and the conduits — foreign agencies supply them with drugs and in return get help in creating unrest in India. This is the reason why we have to be vigilant at our borders and now with drones, the skies have to be watched also.

We have had separatist movements in the North-East, Punjab and J&K. Although the North-East states are quiet for now, but below the surface there is restlessness. Against the Centre’s wishes, the Mizoram government has allowed thousands of Rohingya refugees to come into the state. Smuggling is rife in most of the states bordering Myanmar and Bangladesh. Because of various constraints, our border forces are not as effective as they can be. Efforts are on to create disturbance in Punjab again and the instigators seem to be coming from abroad… both masterminds and money. Foreign governments do not appear to be in a hurry to help. It requires urgent action at the highest political and diplomatic levels. In J&K, the Valley and the contiguous areas of Rajouri, Poonch and Doda continue to be restive. Targeted killings of Pandits, non-locals and police and security forces are taking place even in Srinagar. The inflexible policy of only the stick does not seem to be yielding full results. In the meantime, armed forces, PMF and police resources remain committed to this work. I remember during Kargil, all the Army battalions were withdrawn from the Valley overnight to help the war effort and were gradually replaced by RR. This is why I’m on the side of those who advocate that the Army be freed from internal security duties. As it is, things are in a flux with changes visualised in the structure of the armed forces and also in the recruitment of jawans. In the face of danger looming at the LoC and LAC, it would be prudent to plan first for these problems.

The land border and coastal forces need to be strengthened, especially in the areas where we are very vulnerable. In light of the fresh commitment to aggressive behaviour by China and the impetus to Pakistan-US ties, we have to be alert to anticipate events even as the Russian-Ukraine war continues, along with its impact on world economies, energy and oil prices. We will have to watch our flanks. To sum up, Covid has left a trail of a battered economy, high inflation, rising unemployment and increasing inequality. It is time to put aside our petty vote-bank politics and unite to face these major challenges.

— The writer is ex-chairman of UPSC, former Manipur Governor and served as J&K DGP

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