For integration, J-K needs a healing touch again

Lt Gen NPS Hira

Former Deputy Chief of Army Staff

Revocation of Article 370 on August 5, 2019, was a major landmark in the history of insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir. The opinion on the revocation was divided. A majority of the countrymen seemed to be in its favour though the residents of Kashmir valley were totally against it. It indeed opened some of the old wounds, leading to a very strong reaction which could only be controlled through a prolonged lockdown. The silver lining was that the security forces did well and avoided civilian casualties. In the meantime, another important development has been the revival of the agreement between the armies of India and Pakistan on cessation of firing on the line of control (LoC).

Since the revocation of Article 370 was anathema to most Kashmiris, the alienation levels in the valley continue to be as high as ever but some of the other parameters seemed to be moving in a positive direction. The spurt in incidents of killing innocent civilians by the militants in the past few days in the valley and the two major encounters on the line of control may have come as a surprise, but it is not something which cannot be explained.

It appears that the visible calm in the valley has unnerved the ISI and it is worried about the implications of revocation of Article 370 and 35A. The spurt in the killing of civilians which particularly includes three Hindus and a Sikh lady teacher are surely not an odd incident by some maverick militants. It is an attempt to defeat what the government has tried to achieve through the revocation of two articles, particularly Article 35A which defined the ‘permanent residents’of the state and provided special rights and privileges to them. It is part of a larger design executed under the guidance of the ISI, which seems to have succeeded to the extent that these killings have already revived fear among the minority communities. Some of the Hindu families have already moved out and it will not be easy to send them back. As compared to anything else, human beings fear for their life the most. This rekindled fear is unlikely to go away for a long time. This is a strategy of the ISI to neutralise the revocation of the two articles. It will perhaps remain a matter of discussion forever, if the revocation of these articles was really something, which the government could not do without. Regarding the unfortunate killing of the men belonging to the Muslim community, it is not new. The killing of informers and government supporters in Jammu and Kashmir has been going on since the insurgency started. It is a part of militants’ operations to demoralise them and keep the insurgency alive.

The second issue which needs an analysis is the two major encounters on the line of control, widely spaced out, one in Uri sector, north of Pir Panjal, and the other one near Surankot, south of Pir Panjal. The encounter in Uri is not unusual since Pakistan always ensures some infiltration in the valley before the winter snow sets in. The line of control may be calm, but the firing on the line of control and the infiltration of militants across the line of control are two different issues. Most of the infiltration takes place by stealth, helped by the local guides. The ISI’s efforts in sending the militants across the line of control has not stopped since it began in 1989, except that the ISI always keeps the number of militants crossing the line of control under its check. It keeps the pot boiling, yet not letting it boil over, drawing a strong reaction from India.

One of the major reasons behind infiltration, other than the fact that it has tied down a good part of the Indian Army on the line of control, has been that Kashmir is high on Pakistan’s domestic agenda. Being a small country, unless Pakistan keeps the infiltration pressure on, India may ignore Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir. This is a demonic leverage created by Pakistan on Kashmir and it seems to have worked for them, and with plausible deniability. Pakistan has also been able to whip up adequate sentiments to boost up local recruitment in Kashmir, which now stands at an average of about 200 militants every year. However, the local militants have been seen to be rather soft for the job. Therefore, the infiltration of some Pakistan-trained militants is old wine in old bottles. These two infiltrations attempts were designed to boost the number of Pakistani militants in Jammu and Kashmir before the onset of snow in winters. Since the infiltration south of Pir Panjal had almost dried up in the past, a major encounter south of Pir Panjal may be looked at differently. The ISI seems to have concluded that it is important for them to keep this area also active, as this area is equally affected by the revocation of the two articles. Pakistan also knows that due to Chinese trouble in Ladakh, India’s options to use force against Pakistan has been further limited.

Kashmir is an important domestic agenda for Pakistan. It is unlikely to give up on it soon. It is difficult for India to control Pakistan’s actions; therefore, India needs to deny Pakistan its options. Fighting an insurgency is a combination of winning the hearts and minds and neutralising the hardcore militants. The former is as important if not more, than the latter. It has been seen the world over that if people are alienated, then the government’s development agenda does not deliver. As per the reports coming from the valley, the security forces have reacted by arresting a large number of over-ground workers and supporters. It may be a tall order but we need to work to remove alienation from the Kashmiri minds to integrate them into the Indian mainstream. The security forces can keep it under the threshold, the situation calls for a political solution.

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