G20 nations must act fast to reduce carbon emissions

Ajay Shankar

Distinguished Fellow, TERI

EXTREME weather events across the world have been occurring so frequently and with such ferocity that there is no time any more for a leisurely debate on climate change. This is the most critical challenge for the world. We need to act with a sense of urgency that was witnessed during the development and distribution of Covid-19 vaccines. The goal is simple: the world needs to achieve the target of net-zero emissions at the earliest.

While the necessity of restricting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is widely acknowledged, most experts agree that this may no longer be achievable. Many countries and organisations have made commitments to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, but the detailed roadmap to reach that goal is hazy. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its latest report, says that the window for adaptation is beginning to close. In any case, the cost of adaptation rises exponentially as temperatures rise.

The G20 was set up in the wake of the Asian financial crisis on the understanding that if the members, which among them account for over 80 per cent of the global economy, can arrive at a consensus on key issues, the world would see purposeful action. The annual summits were meant to facilitate discussions among heads of governments, who could consider new ideas and possibilities. This did happen in the early years regarding measures considered necessary to remove the weaknesses in the global financial system. Now is the time for a similar G20 moment on climate change.

Even as India will be hosting the summit this week and steering the discussions, the declaration after the summit has to be a consensus document. And we have seen during the ministerial meetings how difficult it is to achieve a consensus. The US remains the preeminent global power; under Joe Biden, it has consolidated its leadership of the West. This is also Biden’s last G20 summit before the 2024 presidential race picks up pace. Biden has demonstrated a strong commitment to addressing climate change. He has succeeded in getting substantial funding for his climate change programmes through the Congress with skilful negotiations, the last package of funding being included under the Inflation Reduction Act. This summit could be his defining moment on climate change. Would the US and India be able to coordinate constructively and steer the process? What would be the elements of a declaration, going beyond platitudes calling for phasing down of the use of fossil fuels and provision of increased climate finance, that would convey resolve and hope?

The first would be getting to net-zero emissions at the earliest by front-loading the transition. The advanced industrial economies would endeavour to do so before 2050; preferably by 2040. The rest would endeavour to do so with a lag of 10 years. This would establish Biden’s legacy, with the US leading by example rather than rhetoric. It would also demonstrate India’s creative stewardship by rising above its entrenched rhetorical positions on climate justice and its right to development and continued use of coal. India is well set to achieve the 2030 goal of 500 GW of installed electricity capacity from non-fossil sources. This, along with the newly launched National Green Hydrogen Mission, has positioned India to achieve net-zero target much sooner. Since the operating word is ‘endeavour’ and not commitment under the Paris Agreement, no G20 country should have too much difficulty in agreeing to this. Fortunately, rapid technological innovation and declining costs make this both achievable and affordable.

Complete decarbonisation of electricity is relatively easy. Renewable wind and solar power, along with the storage of electricity, can provide affordable and round-the-clock carbon-free electricity. Biden, during his presidential campaign, has promised a zero-carbon electricity system by 2035. The speed at which EVs (electric vehicles) are gaining market share across the world, including in India, with new models giving a better performance at lower costs, inspires confidence that the era of the internal combustion engine using petrol, diesel or gas can end sooner than later. The UK has set 2030 (the European Union, 2035) as the year by which the sale of carbon-emitting vehicles would end. A complete switchover to EVs and carbon-free electricity would reduce carbon emissions by over 55 per cent. Transitioning from traditional heating sources to electric heating in colder countries can contribute to significant emissions reductions (around 10 per cent).

The declaration could call on the advanced industrial economies to endeavour to achieve decarbonisation targets for electricity, road transport and heating by 2035, and the rest by 2045.

Then, a call for greater cooperation and public funding to accelerate the transition to the use of green hydrogen for decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors would be seen positively. Hard-to-abate sectors are those in which fossil fuels cannot be substituted with electricity to achieve decarbonisation. These include sectors such as civil aviation, shipping, fertilisers and steel. Technologies for the use of hydrogen in the hard-to-abate sectors is at a nascent stage. Success in pushing these emerging technologies from the design phase to pilot projects and ultimately scalable deployment within this decade is crucial for making the net-zero goal achievable. Costs with volumes can then begin going down, as has been seen in the case of solar panels. The transition to net-zero emissions will become easier if it is also affordable across the world.

The world would be enthused by specifics which would convey that the G20 nations are going to act immediately to reduce carbon emissions.

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