Geopolitics of Indo-Pacific

Lt Gen SL Narasimhan (Retd)

Distinguished Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies

THE Indo-Pacific is a vast geographical area extending from the East Coast of Africa to the western shores of the Americas. While the Indo-Pacific as a concept is still evolving, it has come a long way since its inception. The geopolitics in this area is in a state of flux. China abhors the term ‘Indo-Pacific’, preferring ‘Asia-Pacific’ instead.

The strained relations between the US and China have been an important phenomenon in the Indo-Pacific.

The East Coast of Africa is being contested for influence by China and other countries. China, which has been active in the African continent for the last two decades with a cumulative investment of $155 billion, seems to be slowing down in that effort with its investments reducing by 55 per cent in the last two years. This gives an opportunity to other countries to increase their influence in Africa. China has used the opportunity given by the anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden to gain experience in naval operations and this brought her into the Indian Ocean a few years earlier than expected. The establishment of a base in Djibouti by China in 2017 was an important development. This, and the acquisition of stakes in about 100 ports in many parts of the world, will give added leverage to China. While the increasing presence of the PLA navy in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is a concern, equally important are its other activities, such as fishing. Last year’s docking of the Yuan Wang 5 satellite tracking vessel at Hambantota Port brought in a new geopolitical dimension in South Asia. Earlier, berthing of Chinese submarines raised concerns in the region. China’s efforts to develop the Gwadar Port in Pakistan and the possibility of it being used as a naval base looms large in the geopolitical calculation in the northern Indian Ocean. The ‘research vessels’ of China sailing in IOR for gathering ‘vital information’ is also worrisome.

China’s efforts to bolster its influence in South Asian countries were clearly visible when at the height of Covid-19, it held meetings with Afghanistan, Nepal and Pakistan, and then also included Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. They established the China-South Asian Countries Emergency Supplies Reserve, China-South Asia Poverty Alleviation and Cooperative Development Centre and held a meeting of China-South Asia E-commerce Cooperation Forum on Poverty Alleviation in Rural Areas. However, none of these initiatives has progressed much. China also proposed a forum for the island nations of the Indian Ocean. In November 2022, it held a meeting of the China-Indian Ocean Region Forum (involving 19 nations), which may become a competitor to the Indian Ocean Rim Association and Indian Ocean Naval Symposium. China’s defence cooperation with South Asian nations has also been increasing. China’s efforts to overcome the Malacca Dilemma have resulted in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.

China-ASEAN relations are another important aspect in the Indo-Pacific. China has effectively managed to bilaterally engage the countries of ASEAN. The Declaration of the Conduct of Parties in South China Sea has been known more for its violations than adherence. The Code of Conduct for the South China Sea is still being negotiated between China and ASEAN. In the meanwhile, ASEAN, in its Indo-Pacific outlook, has clearly indicated that it would not like to be forced to choose between the US and China. Yet, ASEAN is central to the Indo-Pacific. Recent revelations about the Ream Base being developed in Cambodia by China have added another dimension to the security landscape in the Indo-Pacific. Countries like Indonesia have conveyed their support to the Global Security Initiative (GSI) proposed by China. This initiative, combined with the Global Initiative on Data Security, Global Development Initiative and Global Civilisation Initiative launched by China recently, will dominate the Indo-Pacific in the foreseeable future.

China’s growing clout in the South China Sea is a well-known fact. However, its recent efforts to promote GSI in the South Pacific gave the world a taste of what is to come. Pacific Island countries are one of the areas where the action will be in the near future. Combined patrols of Russia and China over the Sea of Japan and East China Sea are becoming more regular. The last one was in November 2022. A Chinese navy ship directing a laser beam at the Australian patrol aircraft over Arafura Sea near Australia and Chinese PLA aircraft using chaff on an Australian aircraft in the South China Sea are indicative of the things to come. China’s activities in the Taiwan Strait have been a cause for concern.

The strained relations between the US and China have been an important phenomenon in the Indo-Pacific. The spy balloon incident, Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and China’s reactions to the same have aggravated the already fragile geopolitical scene in the Indo-Pacific. The US administration has developed the policy to deal with China as the 3Cs Framework — ‘compete, collaborate, confront’. US-China relations seem to be more competitive in nature, and are likely to impact the Indo-Pacific significantly. Quad and AUKUS, combined with the Indo-Pacific, are anathema to China. Despite China thinking that Quad will fade away like sea foam, the latter has gathered momentum. China’s reactions to this development will have a bearing on the Indo-Pacific.

The above description of events in the Indo-Pacific clearly indicates the complexity of the evolving situation. The actions by the West in terms of the Blue Dot Network, Build Back Better World, Global Gateway and the Indo-Pacific Economic Forum are seen by China as efforts to contain it. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war has not yet fully manifested itself in the Indo-Pacific. China will, no doubt, be an important player in this region.

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