Grand alliance fancies its chances in Assam

Assam’s three-phase polling took place on March 27,

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April 1 and 6, but for the Opposition parties in the state, three-leg elections imply voting dates, counting day and a tricky government formation process. In the Congress’ internal assessment, Assam is heading for a change. But there is a caveat. Even the most enthusiastic Congress leader in Assam is not sure of a clear or decisive mandate for the Mahajot, a 10-party alliance consisting of Maulana Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), Jimochayan (Deori) People’s Party (JDPP), Adivasi National Party (ANP), CPM, CPI, CPI (ML), Anchalik Gana Morcha, Bodoland People’s Party (BPF) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

In the 2016 Assembly polls, the Congress had won 19 while the AIUDF and BPF that had fought separately, had 14 and 11 seats respectively, in the House of 126. This time around, the Congress has a task of winning at least 40 seats in order to edge out the Sarbananda Sonowal government in Dispur. The task is daunting, but not impossible. The Congress and AIDUF, in 2016, had fought against each other, often finishing second and third. A post-poll analysis had revealed that had the two sides been together, they would have won 38 more seats. This realisation alone prompted the Congress to accommodate Ajmal in spite of vocal opposition from former Silchar MP Sushmita Dev, Barpeta MP Abdul Khaliq and several others. On his part, Ajmal too has refrained from making provocative or controversial remarks. He has openly been saying that in the event of Mahajot winning Assam, the AIUDF would let the Congress have its chief ministerial nominee.

Many Assam watchers think the Congress did well to get the tie-ups right. The 10-party alliance is broad-based, having a range of oufits such as the CPM, ANP and BPF that neutralise the ‘Ajmal factor’ from becoming communal. Unlike in West Bengal, the BJP has remained silent on the issue of CAA during campaigning in Assam, apparently to not annoy Assamese voters in the Brahmaputra Valley. The Congress and the AIUDF, have on the other hand, adopted an aggressive anti-CAA stand.

The Assam Congress is, however, extremely wary of Hemanta Biswa Sarma, a former Congress leader and now a senior minister in BJP-ruled Assam. Sarma’s cottage number 6 in Dispur’s Minister’s Colony stood out as a centre of political activity throughout the electioneering period in Assam. Sharing the boundary wall with Sarma in Dispur’s Minister’s Colony is Congress MP Gaurav Gogoi, two-time Lok Sabha MP from Kaliabor, and son of former CM Tarun Gogoi.

Interestingly, Sarma was Tarun’s protégé. Gogoi senior had mentored both Sarma and Rakibul Hussain, aka Rocky, with care and patience. It is said that Sarma wanted to take over from an ailing and aging Tarun Gogoi, but the Congress central leadership, i.e. Sonia and Rahul Gandhi, stonewalled it.

The Tarun Gogoi-Sarma rivalry may have become a thing of the past, but the grand old party in Assam is still suffering from lack of a chief ministerial face in Assam. There are several aspirants for the top post but each suffers from one drawback or the other. The most influential and deserving candidate in Assam Congress is Rakibul Hussain ‘Rocky’, who many consider as capable of checkmating Sarma by the rule of the square in the endgame. But the fear of polarisation on communal lines, has kept Rocky, a four-time MLA from Samaguri, out of contention. Assam is incidentally among very few Indian states (other than J&K) to have a Muslim as chief minister. In December 1980, Anwara Taimur had created history of sorts, becoming the first woman and Muslim chief minister of Assam.

The sharp Bengali-Assamese divide has put a question mark over Sushmita Dev’s prospects of bagging the coveted post. Congress insiders insist that in the event of a good showing, both Sushmita and Gaurav Gogoi will be in the race because Rahul Gandhi would want to present a youthful face of the party. However, there is near unanimity that the chances of Gogoi or Sushmita would brighten if the Congress-led alliance manages to cross the 70-seat mark, regarded as a challenging possibility by most analysts and pollsters.

Questions have also been raised about the manner in which the Congress ran its campaign in Assam. The party kept counting heavily on Priyanka and Rahul Gandhi to shore up its prospects. It remained inexplicit why former PM Manmohan Singh, who had been a Rajya Sabha MP from Assam, for several terms, was not invited to campaign or hold press conferences. The former prime minister held a video conference once. Senior party leaders think even P Chidambaram’s services could have been requisitioned in Assam. The former Union finance minister has a knack for delivering punches at public meetings.

On the positive side, the party’s reliance on Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel worked well in Assam. Baghel’s team of about 700-odd workers from Raipur set up camp offices in Dibrugarh, Tezpur, Tinsukia, Silchar, Jorhat, Nagaon and Bongaigaon. Baghel himself addressed 38 public meetings, unusual for a party leader who does not belong to the Nehru-Gandhi clan.