India at risk of becoming SCO outlier
TOWARDS the conclusion of his media briefing on the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Council of Foreign Ministers meeting, held in Goa on May 4-5, External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar was asked by an Indian journalist whether Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s ‘constant’ reference to Article 370 (in his media interactions in India) indicated that his country was “not able to digest the fact that Article 370 had been revoked”. Jaishankar responded in what has, by now, become his hallmark combative style so admired by his acolytes. He said, “…wake up and smell the coffee. 370 is history, the sooner people realise it the better.”
Iran’s SCO membership and Pakistan’s nexus with China would give India little comfort in this organisation.
Jaishankar is, of course, right about the constitutional changes in Jammu and Kashmir. He also correctly described the SCO as a “major Eurasian grouping” whose membership “serves our interests”. Significant developments are taking place in Eurasia which are undermining India’s interests. Indeed, it would not be out of place to suggest to our erudite and active EAM to take the advice he has himself given in the context of Article 370. He needs to “wake up and smell the coffee” on Chinese actions to integrate the region stretching from Iran to the Central Asian Republics. This integration would inevitably and adversely impact Indian interests even if some of the area’s individual states remain invested in the Indian relationship.
Jaishankar dismissed the notion that the SCO was moving in the direction of a military alliance, but emphasised that it was a regional organisation with the objective of promoting political, economic, technical and people-to-people cooperation. In his media briefing, he stressed the work undertaken by India to promote SCO objectives in line with the theme of the Indian presidency, as articulated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. That theme stood for a ‘SECURE’ SCO. It’s an acronym for ‘Security, Economic development, Connectivity, Unity, Respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity and Environmental protection’. To translate this theme into reality, India organised over 100 meetings or events, including 15 at the ministerial level, he said. Jaishankar noted that India had endeavoured to create new ‘verticals’ of cooperation in the SCO and specifically mentioned five: “in the field of startups and innovation, traditional medicine, science and technology, empowering youth and reviving Buddhist heritage among SCO member states.” Two of these areas will need careful nurturing, though. These are traditional medicines where both India and China have interests and strengths but there is a need for putting in internationally accepted standards and methodologies. Buddhist heritage would be of some interest to China, but there may be insufficient enthusiasm over it in the Islamic member states of the organisation.
India’s SCO presidency has occurred at a time when, as Jaishankar correctly noted, the world is ‘fluid’, ‘multipolar’ and “sometimes uncertain and volatile”. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s aggressive moves have added to global complexity and turbulence. Inevitably, the world is becoming divided into blocs and multilateral organisations such as the SCO cannot escape the impact of such divisions. The SCO cannot avoid bearing the imprint of China and by now its steadfast, if subordinate, ally Russia. The former is integrating the Eurasian landmass, a large part of which was either a part of Soviet Union or dominated by it. Iran will join the SCO at the New Delhi summit in early July and its current close relations with China and Russia will greatly forward the integration process. In the context of eastern Europe and Russian interests, Belarus’ desire to achieve membership status is noteworthy. At the last SCO summit in Samarkand, it was agreed to consider the accession of Belarus as a member of the organisation. While Iran’s joining the group is certain, it is unlikely that Belarus will be admitted as a full member in the Delhi summit. In view of its role in the Ukraine war, that will be a relief to India.
Iran’s SCO membership and Pakistan’s nexus with China and growing ties with Russia would give India little comfort in the organisation. Afghanistan has an observer status in the SCO, but as the Taliban’s ‘interim’ government does not have international recognition, the country has been excluded from SCO meetings and nor will it be present at the Delhi summit. But that has not prevented China from steadily building ties with the Taliban. From India, where he attended the SCO foreign ministers’ meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang travelled to Islamabad, where he not only held bilateral talks with his Pakistani counterpart Bilawal Bhutto Zardari but also took part in a Pakistan-Afghanistan-China trilateral meeting. Taliban ‘interim’ Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi represented his country at the trilateral. China and Pakistan decided to extend the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to Afghanistan. Amid terrible economic conditions — with Afghan financial assets frozen in the US and other Western countries — the Taliban have welcomed the BRI.
With Afghanistan ‘joining’ the BRI, the Chinese will proceed, although circumspectly, to integrate Afghanistan into the vast swathe of territory stretching from Iran to Pakistan to the Central Asian Republics with its western region. China has its eye on the mineral wealth in the Hindukush mountain range in Afghanistan. In time it will seek to build transport linkages to carry these to its factories in western China.
India’s danger of being shut out of the economies of the Eurasian region is now becoming greater with China moving in a determined manner for its pro-China integration. With Pakistan continuing as a barrier to India’s connectivity to the region, India sought to move to develop the Chabahar port in Iran to become a gateway to Afghanistan and beyond. China countered that with its Gwadar move. And Chabahar did not really make much headway because of US sanctions against Iran, Indian reluctance to buck that and Iranian double-dealing.
All this portends that India is in danger of becoming an outlier in the SCO and being marginalised in the Eurasian region, notwithstanding the grandstanding that may occur at the SCO summit in New Delhi.
