India, Japan deepen their partnership in a turbulent world

PRIME MINISTER Narendra Modi's visit to Japan from August 29-30 reaffirmed the depth and dynamism of India-Japan relations. This was his first standalone visit to Tokyo in seven years, underscoring a push to further strengthen the special strategic and global partnership between the two countries.Though the visit was bilateral, its context was geopolitical since it came in the wake of India's difficulties with its Indo-Pacific partner, the US, as well as being juxtaposed with Modi's first trip to China in seven years.Curiously, Shehbaz Sharif will be visiting Japan in early October — the first visit in 20 years by a serving Pakistani Prime Minister. Sharif's goal is to secure an economic and trade package from Tokyo. Japan's ties with Pakistan are thin, based primarily on the loans and grants the former provides to the latter. Japanese private investment in Pakistan is negligible.There is little doubt that the message that has come out of Modi's Japan visit is one of calm purpose amid geopolitical turbulence. This is especially significant given that the US seems to be turning away from its leadership role in the Indo-Pacific. It is not yet clear if the fifth Quad leaders' summit scheduled to take place in New Delhi will happen and, if it does, whether President Trump will attend it.Along with this development is the disquieting news that the draft of the new US National Defense Strategy prioritises the defence of the homeland and western hemisphere over the Indo-Pacific. This is a significant departure from the Trump Administration’s Defense Strategy of 2018 that focused on deterring China.There have been growing doubts across Asia as to whether the Trump Administration can be relied upon. Countries of the region have the daunting task of organising resistance to the growing Chinese hegemonic actions without US help. Both India and Japan have border disputes with China and have experienced the brunt of Chinese assertiveness, one in the Senkaku islands and the other in eastern Ladakh.The two countries face the challenge, therefore, of giving shape to an Indo-Pacific strategy in which the US may play a more restrained role. Both have separately indicated their determination to take up the Chinese challenge.India has redoubled efforts to build its infrastructure and military presence along the LAC. Japan has decided to alter its defensive strategy by acquiring long-range missiles capable of striking adversary targets. It has removed the1 per cent GDP cap on its defence budget and the National Security Strategy of 2022 has announced the doubling of its defence spending to 2 per cent of the GDP by 2027. It has also decided to enable it to fight alongside an ally under attack.While its alliance with the US has been strengthened, Japan is also reaching out to Australia and India. It is partnering with the UK and Italy to develop a sixth-generation fighter and has loosened its arms export regulations.At last month's 15th India-Japan Annual Summit, Modi and Japan PM Shigeru Ishiba (who announced his resignation on Sunday) unveiled a comprehensive ‘India-Japan Joint Vision for the Next Decade’. It focuses on eight collaborative areas —economic partnership, security, mobility, sustainability, technology and innovation, health, people-to-people exchanges and sub-national/ state-prefecture cooperation.The warmth in the relationship was revealed in the joint ride taken by the two leaders in a Shinkansen train from Tokyo to Sendai and their visit there to a semiconductor plant, signalling their intention to jointly promote chip-manufacturing to help India emerge as a major semiconductor centre.Japan has pledged 10 trillion yen (over $60 billion) in private sector investments in the coming decades. A huge number of agreements and MoUs were signed to enhance cooperation in such critical sectors as AI, semiconductors, clean energy, telecom, pharma, critical minerals and digital technologies.The two countries also signed the pivotal Economic Security Initiative to provide for supply chain resilience and ensure collaboration in emerging technologies. A Japan-India AI Initiative was launched to promote development in AI, data centres and governance. The decision to promote prefecture-state networking will go into the nitty-gritty of India-Japan ties.A far-reaching agreement between ISRO and JAXA was formalised to promote collaboration in the Chandrayaan mission and enhance space-science collaboration. A next-gen mobility partnership was signed to boost cooperation in railways, civil aviation, roadways and ports and to expand the Shinkansen network in India.Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to a free, open and rules-based Indo-Pacific, highlighting their shared strategic concerns about regional security, cybersecurity and defence amid shifting global dynamics.Convergence of relations between India and Japan goes back to the beginning of this century. Earlier, Japan was focussed on China, but the rising anti-Japanese sentiment in the early 2000s pushed it to look at India as a potential partner. So far, India has received over 3.5 trillion yen for various infrastructure projects. This shift also marked the beginning of the arrival of Japanese private sector investment in India.The notion of the Indo-Pacific was first articulated by Japanese premier Shinzo Abe in a speech in New Delhi in 2007. Over the years, the two countries have come together in the Quadrilateral Grouping (Quad) and Japan began to participate in the Indo-US Malabar naval exercises.Because of the vast potential that this visit has unlocked in Indo-Japanese relations, it cannot be seen as just a ceremonial visit. This visit is helping chart a path towards a more meaningful, resilient and innovation-led relationship, which will have a transformative impact in the years ahead and help stabilise the turbulence in global politics.Manoj Joshi is Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation.

India, Japan deepen their partnership in a turbulent world

Manoj Joshi

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