India needs tactical advantage over China, Pak

Col Bimal Bhatia (Retd)

Why does the Siachen belt continue to remain a vexed issue eluding a clear strategic and operational perspective? Evaluating the entire spectrum from the adversary’s viewpoint throws up clear options for both sides. This has seldom been attempted. 

A fixity of purpose to remain one step ahead of the enemy will help avoid being in a reactive mode, often causing political embarrassment. Coupled with this is the need to change the concessionary approach, which hasn’t worked so far, into a no-nonsense approach.

Abhijit Bhattacharyya’s recent article (‘Siachen demilitarisation not worth the risk’), suggesting the continued occupation of Siachen, is well-meaning. However, vacating the icy wasteland does not ipso facto imply ‘cessation’, nor relinquishing sovereignty, and also not retaining domination or control.

In my opinion piece ‘Siachen: A new perspective’, published in The Tribune on July 11, 1989, I had given the example of a woman perturbed because her son would not eat spinach. “Why do you want him to eat spinach,” asked the counsellor. To make him strong, said the woman. Are there other ways to make him strong, she was asked. “Yes, by taking eggs and fruit, which he likes,” admitted the woman. Similarly, there are other ways to retain Siachen by avoiding the ‘spinach diet’ — continued occupation at an immense cost.

The Siachen glacial belt became contentious because the Line of Control was left undefined in 1949 and then again in 1972 beyond a certain point (NJ 9842). Pakistan cleverly construes the LoC to run northeast up to the Karakoram pass with the obvious intent of linking it with China to which it (Pak) ceded a chunk of Indian territory. India does not recognise the ‘Sino-Pak border’ agreement as neither has any locus standi over the Indian territory. 

Pre-empting Pakistan’s plans, India occupied the Soltoro range to establish control over Siachen in 1984. We have been holding this tract for 38 years. Spanning 80 km in length and 20 km in width, it abuts illegally occupied territory by Pakistan on the west and illegally ceded territory to China by Pakistan on the north.

Our concerns bordered on Pakistan and China colluding to act in concert through Siachen to threaten the Nubra valley, north of Leh. Strategists in India fear that such a collusive threat by Pakistan and China would turn disastrous and continued occupation of Siachen would prevent this. 

How possible is this collusive threat to Siachen? To wear the enemy’s hat and think through his perspective is a very interesting process, called ‘intelligence appreciation’ in military parlance. Factoring all aspects from the enemy’s point of view, it pays dividends beyond expectation. The terrain does not discriminate. It affects everyone equally. A comprehensive terrain analysis leads one to determine the enemy’s aims and options. How accurate this can be will be apparent presently. 

With heights ranging up to 24,000 feet, passes are at 18,000 feet. Sub-zero temperatures up to minus 70 degrees, apart from restricting human endurance, often result in medical emergencies. Restricted by weather and low visibility along with curtailed performance of helicopters, pilots employ extraordinary skills to fly in supplies and evacuate casualties. The possibility of a crevice opening under your feet devouring humans in sheer ice is a constant fear.

Siachen is thus clearly impassable on a scale required for a worthwhile offensive. To plan an offensive through this tract by Pakistan or China would require superhuman effort. To think about moving weapons, equipment and requisite logistics is militarily not possible. 

In my 1989 article, it was assessed: “That  the glacier is nothing more than a sore thumb is evident from the fact that any offensive by Pakistan in the Ladakh region can be better achieved by a direct thrust into the Kargil sector as it is more easily accessible.” Ten years later, the Kargil war happened.

“Should  Pakistan and China wish to act in concert, they do not need to traverse the Siachen area. They would wish to prick India at widely separated points in order to dissipate our forces and reaction capability,” the assessment said. We now see this happening in east Ladakh with China trying to consolidate its hold over Aksai Chin and the claim line in keeping with its strategy of salami slicing to occupy key features. From the Depsang  plains in the north down to Galwan and further to Pangong Tso, China is well ahead of its claim line. India was forced into inducting sizeable forces in a move requiring huge logistics, including airlift, a kind of ‘Siachenisation’ of Ladakh, to be maintained at phenomenal costs. This happened when we had a fully functional DMA under the CDS.

Over Rs 5 crore a day is estimated to be spent in Siachen, upgrading defence and losing men and material for almost 38 years. That our fears of Pakistan and China using this wasteland in a collusive threat are unfounded is apparent. An appreciation to obtain the bigger picture is thus imperative and invaluable to foresee likely enemy actions.

There exists another vulnerability of which our adversaries take advantage. A study conducted for the Faculty of Research and Doctrinal Studies in Command and Staff College, Quetta, is revealing. Two traits of Indians mentioned in the study are relevant. It says that Indians are patient to the point of absurdity. The second trait is ‘intellectualism’, described as the Indian inability to defend with the weapon because of which he is forced into a strategy for defence based on the idea and the word. China’s view of India is no different. 

Note our response to the Chinese army now building a bridge across the tactically significant Pangong Tso lake which will provide to it distinct advantages. The issue was raised in Parliament and ‘condemned’. Our recent statement on the Quad platform, though true, is indicative: “The tense situation at the LAC has arisen due to the disregard by China in 2020 of written agreements with India not to amass forces at the border.” It explains the Indian hesitation to use force until pushed into a corner.

To drastically change this ‘tolerant and reaction mode’ becomes a dire necessity. Aggressiveness we have displayed in ample measure responding to ingress, it must now turn proactive. 

Back to Siachen. Pakistan’s arteries feeding the glacier are vulnerable to interdiction should it embark on any mischief, including sending civil mountaineering expeditions to the area. Vacating it after an agreement to recognise the current position along the Soltoro ridge as the Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL) will help Pakistan also.  While it scrapes the bottom of the barrel, FATF rides its back. India should declare unequivocal sovereignty over the tract. Latest state-of the-art surveillance measures, combined with land and air-based stand-off weapons, will assist in retaining control and domination of the area. 

The mantra then is constant contemplation to stay ahead of the enemy in thought and proactive action, in a business-like approach. It will be cost-effective and give traction to the Indian Army like never before. It will, in turn, ease calls on the IAF considerably.  

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