India needs to get its strategy right amid global churn

Air Vice Marshal Manmohan Bahadur (Retd)

Former Addl Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies

MANY vital events are expected to unfold in the coming months. Statements such as “this is not an era of war” have been proven wrong many times over, exemplified by the Russia-Ukraine conflict that is in its third year. While Russia has held firm with its objective, backed by a robust military-industrial complex, the Western powers are finding it tough to continue pouring in billions of dollars — with no end in sight — to help Ukraine oppose Moscow’s sustained pressure. China is continuing with its expansionist acts off its Eastern Pacific coast, with l’affaire Taiwan being the subject of many conjectures about Beijing’s next step. There are the ‘forgotten’ conflicts in Africa, masked now by the Russia-Ukraine-China activities — and all have been overtaken by the Palestine-Israel conflagration that threatens to engulf the region by drawing in Iran, the US, West Asian and Gulf nations. Where does this volatile environment place India in the run-up to its General Election, with an unstable Pakistan on its west and an inimical China up north? It is vital that New Delhi gets its strategy right in the ongoing churn in the world order.

The cliché that there are no permanent friends or enemies in international relations, just permanent interests, could not be more apt in the present churn. Accordingly, we are utilising the Quad grouping as well as advancing friendships with South East Asian countries to send out a message to Beijing, while holding our own amid conflicting diplomatic pulls in the conflicts west of us. In these manoeuvrings, it is vital that Henry Kissinger be invoked for what he wrote in his book World Order. Commenting on international relationships, Kissinger opined: “... in international affairs a reputation for reliability is a more important asset than demonstration of tactical cleverness.”

These are wise words as India grapples with Chinese attempts at influencing its neighbours; the downturn in relations with Maldives (despite aid offered to it at critical times) is emblematic of the challenges before us. Do other neighbours, such as Bhutan and Nepal, see us as a reliable partner or is India viewed as a dominating big brother? In our attempt to buttress our sphere of influence, have we overassessed our capabilities and got a faux sense of power?

Power is the ability of a state to create outcomes and, more importantly, sustain them. National power has two major aspects. First, the possession of capability to process an aim and second, the ‘will’ to action it. Having the capability but not the will is a non-starter for any aspirational nation. However, this is less damaging than starting on a path without the capability to carry it through to fruition. The ‘will’ is an intangible that represents political ambition, while ‘capability’ is material in nature — call it having the ‘strategic depth’ in terms of economic strength, R&D, manufacturing capacity, military strength and qualified human resources to back the ‘capability.’ The possession of capability and a consistent demonstration of the will to use it bring in the reliability factor. The moot point is whether we have ‘arrived’ in the international arena with such credentials. World history, perhaps, has some pointers.

Nations and empires have risen to eminence and then faded away. Paul Kennedy’s seminal work, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, lays this bare. These cyclical episodes arise from rising aspirations of a country which feels that its time has come for pre-eminence in the pecking order; nothing wrong in improving one’s standing, except that its translation to attempted dominance has always resulted in conflict, as Kennedy’s work brings out. This fact cannot be wished away and in the realist world must be planned for so that one does not come across as being flippant in international interaction. To quote Kissinger again, “... history punishes strategic frivolity sooner than later.” So, strategic dependability and reliability are what India should be seen as offering its friends.

Strategic reliability flows from the economic and military strength of a nation. Certain events do not read too well vis-à-vis our dependability. India’s friend, former President Najibullah, was hung by the Taliban in Afghanistan in 1996 — we couldn’t help him; in August 2021, then President Ashraf Ghani couldn’t be propped up despite our attempts. Oil purchases from Iran, India’s major supplier of crude, were curtailed in mid-2019 following demarches by the US following the collapse of the Iran nuclear deal. Similarly, stopping the export of rice in July 2023 resulted in frantic and desperate calls worldwide for restoration, including from the IMF. During Covid times, after having offered help to poorer countries for vaccines, the exports were stopped due to internal requirements, which resulted in adverse reactions. Nepal, for example, had to suspend its vaccination programme. Then there is the issue of stoppage of Gorkha recruitment in the Indian Army (due to the Agnipath scheme), which was a vital employment outlet for Nepalese youth. Bhutan, critical for our security, now has a quarter of its trade with China, is directly discussing border problems with it and is substantially dependent on Beijing for telecom and road building. Does Thimphu feel that our capability vis-à-vis the Chinese is suspect? Bangladesh, like the Maldives, seems to be having a nascent ‘India Out’ political campaign, while Sri Lanka still blows hot and cold to India’s objections to increasing Chinese influence in its polity.

We certainly have many strong points working for us and need to build on them by enhancing R&D, manufacturing, per capita GDP, etc. — so that we enhance strategic dependability. There is no harm in learning from the Chinese, who for decades followed Deng Xiaoping’s dictum “hide your capability bide your time” before making their move with firm commitments. India is an aspirant to a place at the high table of international power politics; for that, a reputation for strategic dependability is a sine qua non. One hopes that India’s political leadership accepts this truism.

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