India treads warily as Maldives bolsters ties with China

Yogesh Gupta

Former Ambassador

THE recent visit of Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu to China was grand in terms of expectations but low on outcome. Muizzu had to cool his heels in Fujian province for two days before he got to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on January 11.

China agreed to upgrade its relationship with the Maldives to a ‘Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership’, which it has with over 41 countries, and provide assistance under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which involves more than 155 countries. China decided to give a grant of $130 million to the Maldives for various projects, invest about $50 million on a tourism zone in Hulhumale and build 30,000 housing units at Rasmale. The two countries signed 20 agreements to promote cooperation in the BRI, tourism, digital economy, disaster risk reduction, blue economy and other sectors. However, no Chinese return visit at the highest level was agreed upon at this time.

China is interested in using the Maldives to collect intelligence on Western and Indian strategic and naval activities in the Indian Ocean through the use of its assets, including spy ship Xiang Yang Hong 3, which has obtained permission to berth at Male. Beijing has also been involved in conducting hydrographic surveys of the Indian Ocean, exploring the ocean beds for oil and gas deposits and mapping the activities of the submarines of its adversaries.

Chinese companies have invested about $1.37 billion in the Maldives since 2014 — after it joined the BRI — in expanding the Velana International Airport in Male and the cross-sea China-Maldives Friendship Bridge. China’s debt of $1.3 billion accounts for 20 per cent of Maldives’ total debt, as per an International Monetary Fund report. China’s trade with the Maldives in the first 11 months of 2023 was $700 million. India has given financial support of more than $2 billion to the Maldives, with bilateral trade amounting to $500 million in the fiscal year 2022-23.

The Maldives’ ties with India are comparatively historical, richer, deeper and dedicated to enhancing the domestic resilience of that country. India is in close proximity to the Maldives, unlike the relatively distant China. Traditionally, India has been the first responder in any Maldivian crisis. It responded positively during the 1988 coup attempt, the 2004 tsunami, the 2014 water crisis and the 2020-21 Covid-19 pandemic.

Tourism is the most important economic activity in the Maldives, contributing over 30 per cent to its GDP and 60 per cent to its foreign exchange earnings. India has been the lead source of tourist arrivals in the Maldives for many years, accounting for 22 per cent of the tourists last year. Calls within India for a boycott of the Maldives as a vacation destination could have a big impact on the Maldivian economy.

India has gifted two helicopters and one Dornier aircraft to the Maldives to conduct medical and rescue operations and monitor its vast Exclusive Economic Zone. Around 75 Indian Navy and Coast Guard personnel stationed in the Maldives are under the operational command of the Maldivian National Defence Force. They are operating and maintaining the equipment and training the Maldivians in their use. India has met about 70 per cent of the Maldives’ defence training requirements, gifted a coastal radar system, built the new Ministry of Defence headquarters, provided 24 utility vehicles and undertaken joint anti-narcotics missions and several military exercises.

It is important to understand the factors that led to Muizzu’s victory in the 2023 presidential elections. There has been a gradual shift in the Maldivian national identity — from its syncretic culture (a mix of Buddhism and Islam) to a more fundamentalist and doctrinal Salafism and from a progressive secular state to a rigid and Islamic one. The US Departments of State and Treasury have designated 20 operatives and 29 companies in the Maldives as terrorists and their supporters.

The poll victory was largely due to a split in the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). Former President Mohamed Nasheed resigned midway along with his 12 MPs, and his attempts to negotiate with incumbent President Ibrahim Solih proved unsuccessful. Furthermore, Nasheed’s supporters secured 7 per cent of the votes (Muizzu’s coalition bagged 46 per cent, whereas Solih’s MDP received 39 per cent) in the elections, ultimately contributing to Muizzu’s triumph.

Muizzu’s animus against India is based on his Salafist leanings, the propaganda about the alleged ill-treatment of Muslims in India, India’s close ties with the US and Israel and the moves by many Muslim conservative countries to diversify their ties with China for economic benefits.

Beijing has a habit of overpromising and under-delivering and there are misgivings about China’s debt trap diplomacy which has hurt many developing countries. It does not appear that China wishes to push India out of the Maldives and substitute its assistance programmes. The berthing of Chinese spy ships and warships at the Maldivian port will draw the adverse attention of not only India but also the US and other Western countries as the Maldives is near one of the densest trading routes in the world and over 80 per cent of the energy imports to the Indian subcontinent pass through these shipping lanes.

India has adopted a cautious approach in its dealings with the new government in Maldives. Prime Minister Narendra Modi met President Muizzu in Dubai in December last year and expressed India’s interest in continuing its multifaceted cooperation with the Maldives. Minister of Earth Sciences Kiren Rijiju was sent to represent India at Muizzu’s installation in November. Senior officials from India visited Male earlier this month to engage with the new government and work out parameters of future cooperation with them. India hopes that the new Maldivian government will abandon its strong views on India and agree to a new modus vivendi on working with her, understanding the country’s multifarious needs and limitations of the assistance from China.

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