Indian diplomacy not overcome by Ukraine crisis

Gurjit Singh

Former Ambassador

The Ides of March have brought a vigorous period for Indian diplomacy. Despite the Ukraine crisis in Europe, and efforts to show it as a global crisis, Indian diplomacy is holding steady. The inopportune timing and impact of the crisis could detract from several of India’s core interests.

In order to put the focus clearly on India’s interests, several diplomatic efforts outside the direct Ukraine-Russia crisis occurred. The annual India-Japan summit was restored with PM Kishida visiting Delhi on March 19-20. Immediately thereafter was a virtual bilateral India-Australia summit, the second within a year. So far, India has annual bilateral summits with Russia and Japan. Now another with Australia has been introduced. The Israeli Prime Minister will visit India in early April.

Interaction with the visiting foreign ministers of Greece and Austria, who despite the Ukraine crisis, found the time to make their maiden visits to India, took place between March 19 and 23. The Oman FM was here as well, which is important for our Indo-Pacific policy.

The leaders of Japan and Australia appreciated the increasing strategic convergence with India as fellow democracies with shared values and interests, including a free, open, inclusive and prosperous Indo-Pacific.

They are seriously concerned with the conflict and humanitarian crisis in Ukraine. They sought an immediate cessation of hostilities, emphasising that the contemporary global order is constructed on the UN Charter, international law and respect for sovereignty and the territorial integrity of states. They agreed to remain engaged on the broader implications for the Indo-Pacific.

Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla and US Under-Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland co-chaired India-US Foreign Office Consultations (FOC) on March 21. The FOC discussed contemporary regional issues pertaining to South Asia, the Indo-Pacific, West Asia and Ukraine, among others. The US would like India to be vocal against Russia but India keeps its counsel.

This completed the Quad engagement bilaterally in March and prepared for the next Quad summit soon.

There are four important outcomes of these diplomatic efforts. The first is that India along with its Quad partners is keen not to lose focus on the Indo-Pacific. The joint statements with Japan and Australia have robust sections dealing with the Indo-Pacific and the Quad decisions taken to deal with the situation.

India’s clear focus is on China. For that reason, the Indo-Pacific is important. India made it amply clear to Japan and Australia at the summit level and to the US at the FOC, that China was the primary problem and we should not lose sight of it. There is some doubt that the US is pushing Japan and Australia to be loud on Russia and is taking its eyes off China. India is wary of a growing Russia-China axis which the US pressure may solidify, to India’s detriment.

Secondly, there is speculation that India is under pressure to alter its position on the Ukraine crisis. However, there were no apparent difficulties in negotiating the paragraphs on Ukraine with either Japan or Australia, both of whom understood the Indian position and engagement with Russia. In the US establishment, there is a dichotomy and some speak loudly about India’s position while others show an understanding.

From the Japanese and Australian sides, both have made outspoken remarks criticising Russia for its action in Ukraine in their summits with India. The Indian response was mainly in the joint statements or in responses to media questions. Essentially, what India says is the same as what Japan and Australia say except that our manner of saying it is different.

In the past, Japan has been anxious not to criticise China too much because of its own interests there. The previous Australian government, which could return to power in Canberra, was ambivalent about China. India has clarity about its relationship with Russia. It is not happy with the way Russia has dealt with Ukraine, but is not going to be loudly critical. Indian pronouncements show adequate appreciation of the common values which bind India, the Quad and the EU. The repeated votes in the UN do stretch Indian efforts but they are managed well.

A third outcome is that dealing with post-Covid phenomena is not to be lost sight of. India, Japan and Australia agreed to continue to implement the decisions taken at the last Quad summit, which will be reviewed when the summit meets again soon.

The fourth important outcome is the tremendous outreach by Japan and Australia for strategic economic cooperation with India. Japan’s high ODA (Official Development Assistance) of almost $3 billion and investments projected at $42 billion over the next five years, manifest steady and incremental economic engagement with India.

Similarly, Australia which finds it difficult to conclude an FTA (Free Trade Agreement) with India due to lack of appropriate complementarities, is nevertheless increasing its economic interest, investment and market access for India. These all point in the right direction. Sooner rather than later, the India-Australia FTA will come about and India and Japan are committed to review the CEPA as well. Japan and Australia believe that India should join the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) but this is not going to happen in a hurry. Therefore, their commitment to supply chain development and resilience effectively means that China +1 policies are emanating in the economic arena.

In a period of intense diplomatic activity, where Europe tried to snatch the baton of attention from the Indo-Pacific, India’s steady course is now bearing fruit. Japan looked to India to talk to Russia about Ukraine. All those who were loud in their criticism of Russia are not often in a position to do so.

It is notable that NATO members like Germany, Turkey and France are in touch with Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, the balanced approach to diplomacy is now better recognised, at least in national capitals. Indian diplomacy is showing an able dexterity in a situation where it could be impacted adversely. Having successfully conducted Operation Ganga and extricated over 20,000 Indians from Ukraine, India is now looking at diplomatic reassertion to ensure that its view of the regional and international order is not overwhelmed by the Ukraine crisis.

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