Interesting week in politics

Julio Ribeiro

Politics is always in the air, but last week there was a perceptible flurry of political activity in preparation for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. As of now, the poll outcome looks pretty clear, but various opposition parties have shown interest in dethroning the BJP. And that dominating party, taking nothing for granted, has put its machinery in gear.

What happens if a united Opposition wins? Will the disparate elements keep their egos and aspirations aside, or will each of them insist on replacing Modi as PM?

Straight from Tokyo, after attending Japanese former PM Shinzo Abe’s funeral, our PM will descend on his home state of Gujarat, where the AAP has shown intent. The division of opposition votes between the AAP and the Congress will favour the BJP, yet nothing is being left to chance.

What is encouraging for the Congress is the public interest evinced in Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra. Rahul has picked on a relevant issue – the divisive nature of the current polity. That should strike a chord in every thinking Indian’s head and heart. In the final analysis, a divisive agenda is bound to lead this country to perdition. India will be ungovernable if its minorities are alienated, the Muslim minority most of all. About 13-14% population is too large to ignore.

A taste of what can happen was manifested last week after the nationwide raids on the Popular Front of India (PFI), a Muslim-centric organisation widely suspected of organising resistance against Hindutva assaults on the community’s beliefs and practices. The epicentre of PFI’s activities is the Muslim-dominated Mallapuram district of Kerala and the adjoining districts of Kozhikode and Kasaragod. But every state, rather most states, harbour concentration of Muslims. All are similarly affected by Hindutva’s unkind feeling towards them.

A hartal was called in Kerala and there was violence. This is bound to be the pattern of the future if adversarial positions are hardened. There was some easing of tensions after Nupur Sharma and her colleague were disciplined. But this sudden decision to organise raids and arrest the organisation’s main functionaries across the nation served hugely to terrorise.

Five Muslim elders met RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat to mend the beleaguered community’s fences with Hindutva’s undisputed leader. Among the five were SY Quraishi, a former Chief Election Commissioner, Najeeb Jung, a former Lt Governor of Delhi, and Lt Gen Zameeruddin Shah (retd), brother of actor Naseeruddin Shah. The Sangh Parivar should spell out what is in store for the minorities once the ‘Hindu rashtra’ flowers. The Muslim side should state what steps are afoot to educate their youth that Islam is ‘not’ the only true religion.

The five Muslim bigwigs probably cut no ice with the mass of the Muslim population, which is poor and uneducated. They are under the spell of the mullahs since they are in touch with them at the mosque and madrassa. Yet, the necessity of a new leadership emerging from the educated and better-heeled class in the community cannot be denied. Right-thinking compatriots should welcome this initiative.

Intelligence agencies must have gathered information about anti-national activities. But it could also be that Hindutva’s core constituency needed to be reassured of the regime’s determination to assert its supremacy.

Such raids would normally follow a big strike by Islamic extremists. But the raids were planned quietly. It took even hardened observers by surprise. It must obviously have been on the drawing board for quite some time. The fact that nothing leaked is a tribute to Ajit Doval and his boys in the IB and NIA. The IB will have to keep a hawk’s eye on the fallout of this exercise. The ordinary Muslim, already living in fear, has become further demoralised. But the community’s ‘lunatic fringe’ would need closer attention.

In the meantime, Rahul Gandhi, described by the BJP’s spin doctors as ‘Pappu’, has befuddled those very wise men! Suddenly, he has discarded his old clothes and emerged as a knight in shining armour. Kerala is comparatively a friendly state, where there are not many to convert. Rahul has reserved just two days for UP. He should have reserved much more time and energy for that ‘saffron’ state.

Perhaps if talks between his mother, Sonia Gandhi, and Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav succeed in a ‘mahagathbandhan’, Akhilesh could be persuaded to join. In which case, Rahul’s padyatra in UP could be redesigned with Samajwadi Party workers providing the bulk of the yatris and Akhilesh abandoning his cycle and using his feet instead.

Talking of the chimerical ‘mahagathbandhan’, it is doubtful if Mamata Banerjee would burn her boats when her nephew and two henchmen are in trouble with the ED. AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal has decided to go on his own with an eye on 2029. Without the AAP, a big slice of the Opposition is sliced away. To this ‘slice’ can be added those voters who opt for Modi at the Centre, even if they have backed a regional satrap in the Assembly polls. This segment’s size is considerable.

What happens if a united Opposition wins? Will the disparate elements keep their egos and aspirations in check, or will each of them insist on replacing Modi as PM? This last scenario seems more plausible! If these leaders cannot come to any conclusion on who should be propelled to the top job, the polity will suffer and it will lead to the death of the ‘mahagathbandhan’.

Meanwhile, the Congress First Family got the shock of their lives when Ashok Gehlot engineered a ‘revolt’ over Rahul’s chosen man being catapulted to the CM’s gaddi to replace Gehlot. If the prospect of a Congress president (Gehlot) concentrating his energies in his home state to keep ‘bête noir’ Sachin Pilot away from fame augured badly for the party, the revolt was even worse. The Gandhis now know that it is not merely the ‘Fab 23’ who can defy them. The old faithful can be equally troublesome when displeased.

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