J&K leaders must have an ear to the ground
KASHMIR is crisscrossing multiple fault lines ahead of the three-phase Assembly polls scheduled to begin on September 18. Most of these lines have been created by the traditional regional parties that are unable to explain why they are fighting as rivals when their manifestoes focus on two key promises — restoration of Article 370 and reclaiming the identity and dignity for the masses.
Both the National Conference (NC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) claim to be anchors of Kashmir’s aspirations but have accused each other of wrecking the prospects of unity of thought and purpose in the most critical elections in the history of Jammu and Kashmir. The results of these elections will redefine J&K’s place and claim to statehood, the biggest concern among its people.
There are expectations that the polls will see the highest voter turnout ever. That is what makes the whole thing unpredictable. High voter participation will come with multiple claims and aspirations that have not been analysed so far. Nor can that be done until the votes are counted on October 8. The parties are also nervous, because it is difficult for them to decipher the trend. They know it through their recent experience during the Lok Sabha elections, in which both Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti lost to their rivals.
This time, the Assembly elections — a manifestation of the impatience of the people accumulated over the last 10 years (with greater intensity since the abrogation of Article 370) — rest on two basic factors. One, Kashmir has rediscovered normalcy, and the residents want it to pass through this transitory stage and arrive at long-term peace. The thrust is on peace with the recognition of their claims to jobs and no compromise on their land rights. This, in translation, means the restoration of the provisions of Article 35A, which was also scrapped along with Article 370 on August 5, 2019. They are willing to adapt to the idea of India on their own, and not through imposed narratives or optics.
The NC, after having declared that it would go solo, took a U-turn and entered into a pre-poll alliance with the Congress, conveniently forgetting the bitter experiences of past partnerships. The ghost of the alliance not passing the test of transferring votes to each other has already emerged, with former J&K Pradesh Congress Committee chief and party candidate from Banihal, Vikar Rasool Wani, hurling invectives at the NC and its leadership, causing embarrassment to Rahul Gandhi, who had campaigned for him on September 4. Rahul had promised a victory for the alliance and a defeat for the BJP, but Wani was bent on rocking the boat.
It was an alliance of compulsions for both parties. The NC wanted to silence a whispering campaign that it had a secret pact with the BJP. It chose to ally with the ‘secular’ Congress. Rahul wanted to showcase himself as the leader of the INDIA bloc and got the NC to his side. The idea of a friendly contest on five seats in itself is self-defeating, though.
The NC’s manifesto, which is similar to that of the PDP, People’s Conference and even the Awami Ittehad Party of Engineer Rashid, has landed the Congress in a catch-22 situation. It can neither support the demand for the restoration of Article 370 because of the nation’s mood overwhelmingly favouring its abrogation, nor can it oppose it because that will undermine the NC’s position in Kashmir. And the BJP will play it as an endorsement of its policies vis-à-vis J&K.
Home Minister Amit Shah was quick to ask Rahul to say ‘yes or no’ to the NC’s foremost agenda. For the Congress, ambiguity is the best shield. The BJP is striking hard at it, making the grand old party look vulnerable in the Hindu-dominated Jammu region. The party is also sowing seeds of suspicion among the Kashmiri Muslims who want straight answers.
The dominance of Article 370 in the political discourse helps both sides stoke emotions — regional parties in Kashmir are invoking the loss that the masses have suffered because of the August 5, 2019, decisions — it is not just that the symbolism of a separate flag and Constitution that is gone, but also their unquestioned right to land and jobs. These fears have been further aggravated by the narrative of ‘us versus them’ — Kashmiris versus outsiders. The NC, the PDP and the Apni Party leaders make pointed references to the non-natives occupying all the key positions and outsourcing of the natural resources and big contracts to others.
This resonates with the sentiment prevalent in Kashmir, and there is a spillover in the Jammu region as well. It is rooted in the fact that the people have lived with these protections since Maharaja Hari Singh’s time and the accession of the state to India in October 1947. These guarantees continued till August 5, 2019. There is not a single generation that has come of age in the post-abrogation period. The local BJP unit could not overcome its inertia to explain what benefits August 5 had delivered. Now, that inertia is haunting the party.
Two major events are playing out on the electoral terrain — the rigging in the 1987 elections, a fallout of the NC-Congress alliance stitched in November 1986, courtesy of the Rajiv-Farooq accord, and the disaster that struck the streets of Kashmir after the killing of militant commander Burhan Wani on July 8, 2016. The NC is on the back foot about the 1987 elections, as the narrative is heavily loaded against it. And the PDP and Mehbooba are deflecting the 2016 disaster by claiming that she, as the CM, had withdrawn 12,000 FIRs against youths at that time. But regional parties cannot shed their past, while the BJP is more keen than ever to form its government, no matter what it may take to do so.
Young voters in Kashmir are waiting to make a statement that needs real-time decoding to usher in sustained peace, beyond the select prisms and dazzling optics. The need of the hour is to have an ear to the ground and heed the calls for long-term stability in all its forms and manifestations.
