Looking beyond the desk-thumping
THUMPING their desks, the ruling party members resoundingly exhibited their confidence and turned the no-confidence motion into an opportunity to flex their muscles, announce their achievements and proclaim their impending victory in the 2024 polls. The Manipur conflict between Meiteis and Kukis was thus reduced to a sideshow. But across the country, it has had an impact much larger than what the BJP seems to have factored in. It has struck a chord far and wide with a group that has actually no reasons of identity to feel empathy for the victims. Or at least that is what one found out while interacting with about 20 young women recently.
It seemed these totally apolitical youngsters (they might even have voted for the BJP earlier) considered the assault on women during the conflict a gender issue, something that made them feel insecure in their own hometowns.
Though they were all exclusively from north India — Hindi and Punjabi-speaking people who have probably never visited the North-East — most of them were visibly upset about the goings-on. It seemed these totally apolitical youngsters (they might even have voted for the BJP earlier) considered the assault on women during the conflict a gender issue, something that made them feel insecure in their own hometowns. Many of them do not seem to have recovered from the shock of having watched the ghastly video.
A survey on the impact of the rape and parading of women in Manipur on the psyche of young Indian women voters will elicit more detailed answers on their electoral preferences, and one’s brief interaction with this group of youngsters should not be considered conclusive evidence of antipathy towards the BJP; yet, there are plenty of indications to presume that the BJP may not be the most preferred party for insecure young women.
And in this context, the Opposition’s no-confidence motion over the Manipur issue and the constant reminder of assault on women can only add to the anti-incumbency sentiment that seem to be growing in many states. Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka were good examples of anti-incumbency becoming an antidote to all the chest-thumping nationalist rhetoric. This growing sentiment can hurt the BJP badly this time around as it had maximised its electoral returns from its strongholds in 2019. And there are no signs of the BJP doing well in its electorally non-traditional states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
It had scored a perfect 10/10 in Haryana, 26/26 in Gujarat, 5/5 in Uttarakhand, 7/7 in Delhi, 4/4 in Himachal Pradesh, 28/29 in Madhya Pradesh, 24/25 in Rajasthan, 11/14 in Jharkhand, 9/11 in Chhattisgarh, 39/40 (with allies) in Bihar, 25/28 in Karnataka, 41/48 in Maharashtra (with its then ally Shiv Sena) and of course the sweep of 64/80 in Uttar Pradesh (with two seats for its ally). So, wherever the BJP succeeded, the strike rate was incredibly high — an almost perfect result — which is impossible to replicate. Over 250 of its 303 seats came from this near-maximum tally from states that fell in the Modi tsunami.
After two terrible elections in 2014 and 2019, top Congress leaders are confident of taking the party’s tally to 100-plus, which is a pretty conservative figure in case of a downward slide for the BJP. Many of its seats have to come from a one-on-one fight with the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and elsewhere. Unemployment, under-employment, price rise and women’s safety could all add up to a neat pile of grievances that may gain critical mass in the run-up to the polls. And every state has a separate set of reasons for voting the incumbent out.
The results of the 2018 Assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh had absolutely no bearing on the ensuing Lok Sabha polls, with the BJP sweeping these states. Sure, there was no credible Opposition leader in sight then. But now, the success of the Bharat Jodo Yatra, the election of Mallikarjun Kharge as Congress president, the formation of the Opposition alliance INDIA and the revival of his Lok Sabha membership have all contributed to the strengthening of Rahul Gandhi’s stature as a serious Opposition leader. He may still not be a match for PM Modi in public perception, but Rahul has surely shaken off his non-serious ‘Pappu’ image that was plaguing him all along, even robbing him of his seat in Amethi.
Of course, the leadership question will always trouble the Opposition. And the trump card that the Congress has up its sleeve can be played by the BJP as well — relinquishing the PM’s post in favour of one of the non-Congress parties to form a government. The BJP can offer the sun and the moon to non-Congress satraps to split and defeat the Opposition. But the political mood is one of possibilities and a strong contest between the BJP and the Opposition; sentiment that goes beyond the desk-thumping of the participants in a one-sided debate. And that could be the reason why another procession is going to be taken out in Nuh for yet another show of strength in a place battered by bulldozer justice.
It is important to remember that the violence in Nuh is not just about Haryana, but also neighbouring Rajasthan. Many of the Muslim mobsters who attacked the Hindu mob are supposed to have come from Rajasthan. In fact, the violence would be more about Rajasthan than Haryana, where religious polarisation and its electoral mobilisation may be required to defeat the Congress. A clean sweep for the BJP, as it had happened in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, looks difficult in all these states, except perhaps Uttar Pradesh. However, past poll results have proved that elections are not won or lost over riots. They can only worsen the incumbent’s credibility as an administrator.
Even while condemning bulldozer justice and upholding the High Court’s stay on demolitions, it has to be underscored that the use of the term ‘ethnic cleansing’ was indeed wrong. Ethnic cleansing of millions happened during the Partition and then during the Bangladesh liberation struggle in 1971. Not a single family of Nuh has moved even out of the district for good.
