Make climate change central to farm reforms

Dinesh C Sharma

Science Commentator

Punjab, the ‘poster boy’ of the Green Revolution, has been the leading food producer of the country for a long time. Taking advantage of the favourable agro-climatic conditions, the state was selected for introducing intensified wheat and rice cropping systems. This boosted grain production and helped India quickly ramp up foodgrain output to achieve self-sufficiency in the late 1960s and the 1970s.

The period was marked by technology dissemination, large-scale chemicalisation and mechanisation of farm operations. Over the years, over-exploitation of groundwater resources posed a challenge.

In recent decades, the problem of stubble burning has added to concerns around air pollution locally and in the region. Though Punjab remains a leading producer of food in the country, ecological, health and social costs appear to be the rise.

Around the turn of the century, evidence started appearing about climate change and its impact on various sectors globally and in India. Politicians and governments were slow to recognise climate change.

It was only after 2008 when the country had to prepare a national climate action in pursuance of its obligations under the UN climate negotiations that climate change appeared on the policy radar. Subsequently, all states were asked to work out state climate action plans. Punjab came up with its State Action Plan for Climate Change (SAPCC) in 2014.

Though not much action has followed since then, trends and warnings issued in the plan remain valid and have great implications for the future of farming in Punjab.

The ongoing agitation of farmers is mainly focused on marketing of farm produce, minimum support price and impending entry of private companies in agricultural markets. It is necessary to bring climate change implications into the public discourse.

Scientific evidence shows that climate change is indeed occurring and the stage of living in denial mode is over. The temperature data collated by the India Meteorological Department points to a rise in the maximum and minimum temperatures in Punjab — an increase of 0.5 to 1°C and of 0.5 to 1.5°C, respectively, in 2010 over the baseline figure of 1971-2000. Projections show an increase of 1 degree to 1.8°C in the annual mean maximum temperature by 2021-50. It is projected to rise to 4°C by the end of the century.

In the same way, rainfall patterns have started changing in Punjab and will see further variations by the end of the century. An overall increase of 13.3 to 21.5 per cent has been projected in the annual precipitation by the mid-century with respect to baseline 1961-90. The increase is likely to be greater in the post-monsoon period, while there will be a decrease in the winter months. Within the state, there will be variations.

Water availability in the state’s rivers which are fed by glacial melt will also be affected. Up to the mid-century, water availability is projected to increase due to increased glacial melt and precipitation, according to the studies quoted in the state plan.

After the 2050s, however, the flows will decrease as there will be reduced precipitation of snow and, consequently, lesser glacial melt flow. In the Sutlej basin, increased air temperature will result in the shifting of the snowmelt season, leading to a significant decrease of snowmelt runoff in June and July. Over 900 small and large glaciers feed into the Sutlej, and glacier decline has been reported in the lower catchments. Data from the Beas basin has shown an increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures with a corresponding decreasing trend in snowfall between 1976 and 2011.

All the observed and projected changes in temperature, rainfall and water availability have a direct bearing on the future of agriculture in the state. If one considers only the increase in the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, it may appear to be beneficial for certain crops up to a point.

But the impact of increased carbon is negative when it is taken together with other factors, like temperature rise. Studies have shown that productivity of rice could decline by up to 9.6 per cent with a temperature rise between 0.5 to 2°C, while wheat yields could dip by 4.6 per cent to 32 per cent with a rise in temperature. In the Doaba region, which is known as the wheat bowl, yields are reported to be either stagnating or declining with the increase in winter temperatures. Changes will also be seen in milk, vegetable, poultry, fisheries, and horticulture production with varying degrees.

Though broad implications of climate change are clear for food security and water availability, not much is being done to address the same in terms of adaptation. Sector-specific strategies are needed for this: new climate-resilient varieties, crop diversification, better water management systems, market intelligence systems, local weather monitoring dissemination, climate insurance and so on.

At the centre of all such strategies should be farmers and their needs, along with the need to maintain the ecological balance. Punjab needs agricultural practices that are sustainable, competitive as well as remunerative to farmers. Certainly, this can’t be achieved through a set of new laws or a diktat from Delhi.

A broad-based commission should be established to examine in a holistic manner all issues related to food security in the light of climate change and ecological imperatives. Punjab, with institutions like Punjab Agricultural University, IIT Ropar and the Indian School of Business, has the necessary knowledge infrastructure to initiate such an exercise. Farmers’ problems need a long-term solution beyond partisan politics and corporate interests.

Such an exercise has been long overdue not only for Punjab but also for the whole country. The current agitation is an opportunity to take this up. It can be done either by repealing the laws as demanded by agitating farmers or by keeping in abeyance their implementation. If farm sector reform is the intention, as stated by the government, then it needs a fuller discussion, covering all issues, including climate adaptation. 

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