Match ambition with action

Dinesh C. Sharma

Science Commentator

The annual meeting of world leaders, environment ministers and diplomats on climate change will begin at Sherm El-Sheikh in Egypt this week. The present round of talks among the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is taking place at a critical time. Climate talks in the past two years were overshadowed by the Covid pandemic. This year’s meeting comes against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine war which has led to an energy crisis and a spike in food prices. Countries are busy meeting immediate energy demands as supplies from Russia have been affected. On top of all this, the impacts of cascading climate change have become more pronounced with floods, droughts and cyclonic storms affecting countries across the globe. The interconnectedness of climate change, food and energy sectors has never been so pronounced.

This year’s meeting comes against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine war which has led to an energy crisis and a spike in food prices.

At the centre of all climate negotiations and talks is the challenge of reducing carbon emissions. Concrete action on this front is the only way the world can address climate change. The world has made little or no progress since the last meeting of UNFCCC parties in Glasgow. The Emission Gap Report released by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has pointed out that the gap between emission reductions promised to achieve the temperature goal set in the Paris Agreement and the national action plans for emission reduction submitted by countries is huge.

During the pandemic years, there was an unprecedented reduction in carbon emissions due to lockdowns, and the slowdown in economic activities and transport systems. Global emissions dropped 4.7% from 2019 to 2020. This was mainly due to a drop in burning fossil fuels and industrial emissions. But the drop was short-lived. The emissions bounced back to 2019 levels in 2021. The emissions have continued to rise if we look at decadal data, but there is a silver line — the rate of growth seems to be slowing down. Between 2010 and 2019, the average annual growth was 1.1% per year, compared to 2.6% per year for the period of the previous decade (2000 to 2009). The UNEP report notes that 35 countries that account for 10% of global emissions have peaked in carbon and other emissions. It means that the emissions have grown to a high point after which they will decline progressively. But these reductions have been outweighed by growth in emissions elsewhere. Nevertheless, it is a positive sign.

The top seven emitters in the world are — China, the EU, India, Indonesia, Brazil, the Russian Federation and the US. These emitters, along with international transport, caused about 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2020. If we take G20 nations as a block, they account for 75% of global emissions. This, however, does not represent the complete picture because countries are at different levels of development and the size of populations varies widely. Per capita emission data presents a different story. The world average per capita emissions in 2020 was 6.3 tonnes of ‘carbon dioxide equivalent’ gases. On this count, the US tops the chart with 14 tonnes, followed by 13 tonnes in the Russian Federation, 9.7 tonnes in China, 7.5 tonnes in Brazil and Indonesia, and 7.2 tonnes in the EU. India, with 2.4 tonnes, is much below the world average. The average emission in the least developed countries is 2.3 tonnes per capita annually.

If we want to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, as committed in Paris in 2015, the global annual emissions of greenhouse gases have to be slashed by 45% compared to 2030. Thereafter, it should decline rapidly, as projected in the report. The parties meeting in Sherm El-Sheikh is supposed to ‘revisit and strengthen’ the 2030 targets. Deeper emission cuts can be achieved only through stronger policy commitments and widespread transformation in four key sectors — electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings. In the power sector, a transition has begun from coal-based power generation to solar and wind systems. The cost of renewable sources is falling. Policies must ensure that the transition from coal has to be one with equity and justice — what is referred to as ‘just transition’.

For the transformation in the industrial sector, the focus areas identified in the emission report are supporting zero-carbon industrial processes, circular material flow, alternative carbon pricing mechanisms, research and innovation, and low-carbon products. Within the industrial sector, challenges differ from one specific industry to another. For the building sector, policies are needed to promote zero-carbon building stock and incentivising zero-carbon buildings. But the elephant in the room is the transport sector, particularly in a growing economy like India. The transition to low-carbon and zero-emission transport systems is going to be difficult and painful, given the diverse nature of modes of transport and fuel requirements. The policy push towards electric vehicles is great but such vehicles are not a completely carbon-neutral solution. There are hidden environmental costs and challenges, like safe battery disposal.

Along with emission reduction and decarbonisation needed to avoid catastrophic impacts of runaway climate change, UNFCC parties at Sher El-Sheikh also have to grapple with adaptation to climate change impacts already being felt. Both mitigation and adaptation bring us to the most vexing issues of climate talks — technology and finance. Developing countries need technology and finance for taking the low-carbon path to development. They want developed countries to foot the bill since it is the wealthy nations which have emitted most of the carbon historically. Another subject that will attract attention is compensation for ‘loss and damage’ in developing countries suffering from climate impacts like cyclones, floods and droughts. The 2009 promise of providing 100 billion dollar climate finance by 2020 to developing countries has remained on paper. It is time to deliver on ambitious goals.

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