Myanmar in for heightened phases of uncertainty
On March 30, 2012, there was a beeline of people visiting the picturesque residence of National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi as she gave a press conference to mark the entry of her party into the electoral fold after a hiatus marked by imprisonment and long period of house arrest after the 1990 elections.
Among the attendees were diplomats, including Major Gen Anup Kumar, Bangladesh’s Ambassador to Myanmar of Chakma origin and other ASEAN countries. While the diplomats were in the listening mode, Suu Kyi replied with her uncanny wit and charm to the varied questions of the media.
The next nine years’ journey — from 2012 to February 1, 2021 — was an eventful one for Suu Kyi and her party. The party contested and won the byelections held on April 1, 2012, and then two consecutive general elections in 2015 and 2020. On February 1, 2021, a military coup reversed the democratic progress in Myanmar which contravened the prevailing analysis among international observers that reforms in the country were irreversible.
After a gap of nearly two years of military trial that was de facto initiated to keep her away, Suu Kyi has been found guilty of inciting public unrest and breaching Covid-19 restrictions. She was initially given a four-year term and her sentence was reportedly reduced after a partial pardon from coup leader and army chief Min Aung Hlaing.
At least 1,000 people have been killed in the protests against the military coup across the country. A series of domestic and international factors have converged that indicate Myanmar may experience continued instability and heightened phases of uncertainty.
First, Suu Kyi’s arrest and the fact that she is 76 indicate that her fire power and ability to lead the country to a long period of democratic struggle has a limited shelf life now. Her health was in progressive decline even when she was in power. For over three decades, internationally, Myanmar’s democratic struggle was synonymous with Suu Kyi and there was little even on her part to groom the next generation of leaders.
Second, during Suu Kyi’s tenure, there was no aim to tackle the racial animosity and Burmese majoritarianism that is quite embedded in the country’s body politic. There are deep-seated ethnic prejudices within the army about the minority ethnic groups and even a cursory informal discussion with senior army officers will validate that. This is not just with respect to Rohingyas who were driven out of Rakhine in large numbers by the military. One of the prejudices prevalent among the Burmese-dominated Myanmar military with regard to Rakhine Buddhists is that they are incapable of defending themselves.
Third, China has remained consistently wary of Myanmar’s reforms. While it played along in the initial years of reforms, little noticed outside Myanmar was China’s repeated displeasure over the western diplomatic hyperactivity in border areas like Kachin in the north that was repeatedly relayed to Myanmar interlocutors.
For China, Myanmar is an important file and each event in the country is tracked with a microscopic lens. Even before China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) made international headlines, the China-Myanmar oil and natural gas pipelines became operational. By July 2019, China imported more than 19 million tonnes of crude oil and more than 20 billion cubic metres of natural gas through the pipelines.
On the BRI alone, several rounds of discussions have taken place between Myanmar and China. Even Suu Kyi participated in the two rounds of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing. And, with China as one of the main destination points for its natural resources, the ability of smart sanctions by the western countries to impact the interests of the current Myanmar military leadership is considerably blunted.
Moreover, Myanmar’s army as an institution has internalised the lesson of capitalising on the geopolitical rivalry between great powers to advance its goals and objectives. The biggest geopolitical rivalry of the US is with China, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, and China is unlikely to cede an inch in its neighbourhood.
Obviously, all is not lost. Myanmar witnessed a surfeit of international activity as many notable non-profit organisations functioned in the country from 2010 to 2021. In a country marked by poverty, real estate value in Yangon was soaring as expatriates competed to get proper housing at astronomical rents. While some of the programmes may have been marked by design flaws, the exposure to the outside world has made Generation Z particularly anxious about its future in a military-controlled country.
Like ASEAN, being a neighbour and with ethnic overlaps, India has a vast corpus of institutional knowledge of the country’s complexity and challenges. It should continue to effectively use its channels with various levels of military leadership to sensitise them on issues of international concern.
The current developments seem to be more of a consequence of ambitions of the present military chief, Min Aung Hlaing, to hold on to the reins of power even after retirement. It is yet not clear whether the middle-level officers, exposed to the decade-long reform process, are fully on board with the idiosyncrasies of the chief.
Suu Kyi was convicted by a court in August 2009 for violating the terms of her house arrest. She has earlier intermittently served house arrest since the 1991 election and has survived an assassination attempt in 2003.
The military’s attitude towards her dramatically changed as President Thein Sein, a former military general, took a series of noteworthy steps after 2010. In phases, he released hundreds of political prisoners, including Suu Kyi, in November 2010.
He invited her to his office in August 2011. He even gave a personal touch to the meeting by taking her to his nearby residence to meet his wife. The NLD gained formal recognition as a political party and was registered by the Election Commission. Keeping in mind the recent history of Myanmar, one can say that even the military control of the country is quite reversible.
