Navigating Bangladesh’s internal strife & external pressures

DESPITE facing a strange and virtual US-China alliance during its birth in 1971, Bangladesh has had a record of rapid economic growth in recent years. Also, notwithstanding the uncertainties and frequent natural disasters since its independence in 1971, it has witnessed a robust economic growth and poverty reduction. One of the world’s poorest nations at birth, it reached the lower-middle income status in 2015.

In the meantime, its former PM Sheikh Hasina has recently sought refuge in India after being threatened with arrest by the local “authorities”, headed by an interim administration led by a US-educated agriculturist and Nobel Prize recipient, Muhammad Yunus. Yunus and the Bangladesh Grameen Bank were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006, for their work to “create economic and social development from below.” Established in 1983, the bank’s objective has been to grant poor people small loans on easy terms, also known as ‘micro-credit’.

Sheikh Hasina, now living in exile in India, has seen her father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman killed in a bloody military coup in 1975. He had led his people to freedom and democratic rule in 1971. Both the US and China appear to have had a distrust and dislike for Sheikh Mujib and his daughter.

Hasina, who was naturally friendly to India, had faced the none-too-friendly feelings displayed by the then blossoming anti-Soviet alliance of the US and China. She was succeeded by regimes not exactly friendly to India. Things, however, changed with time. If Sheikh Mujib faced US and Chinese hostility in the 1970s, his daughter and successor appears to be facing a similar situation today. Today, the US and China are not exactly the best of friends, as they were in the early 1970s.

Despite facing a US-China opposition, Hasina has had a track record of commitment to her country’s strategic autonomy, economic growth and secularism. She has also not forgotten India’s role in the liberation of her country from Pakistani military excesses.

Bangladesh is now facing a situation where the US-backed Yunus has become a key player in the country’s leadership. It is no secret that Yunus has strong pro-American leanings, which have helped in him being appointed head of the Bangladesh government recently.

Interestingly, Hasina’s ouster evidently has the backing not only the Biden administration but also its rival China. What is also interesting is that both China and the US appear to share identical views on the appointment of Yunus as her successor. It needs to be borne in mind that Yunus has high political ambitions.

There is no doubt that a concerted effort has been made, including by the US and China, to discredit Hasina. This effort ignores the economic progress that Bangladesh achieved in the years when Hasina headed the government. Moreover, it is for the people of Bangladesh, and not foreign powers, to both determine its leadership or undermine an elected government.

Bangladesh is the largest development partner of India today. New Delhi has provided it three lines of credit, amounting to $8 billion, for the modernisation and development of such sectors as shipping, ports, roads and railways.

China and Pakistan are, by all accounts, determined to curb and limit India’s influence across the Indian Ocean, through which oil supplies flow from the Strait of Hormuz to the Strait of Malacca and beyond.

As the Trump administration assumes charge, India must hold a comprehensive dialogue with the US and other like-minded countries across the Indo-Pacific region. This is needed to ensure the security of its sea lines of communication. India is, meanwhile, developing its maritime capabilities in weapons systems, ranging from aircraft carriers and warships to missile power. This enables it to cooperate with the US, Japan and other like-minded countries, as also, most importantly, countries in the Persian Gulf.

Insecurity and instability across this region can have serious implications for global energy supplies. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s interest in this region is evident from his recent visit to Kuwait.

Looking back, it was the budding Nixon-Mao-General Yahya Khan alliance of the US, Pakistan and China in 1971 that led to a virtual genocide in Bangladesh and the flow of an estimated 10 million refugees from the then East Pakistan into India. It was Sheikh Mujibur Rahman who led the freedom struggle of Bangladesh. One also recalls that the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi had no interest in keeping the Indian forces deployed indefinitely in Bangladesh. She was, however, shocked at the brutal assassination of Sheikh Mujib.

Things have moved on significantly since then, but India would need to obtain US support to contain a possible Chinese thrust into Bangladesh. China has recently strengthened access to the Bay of Bengal at the Kyaukphyu deep sea port in Myanmar.

While India should not get involved in the internal affairs of Bangladesh, it should continue to provide Hasina asylum. It should work with the US and others to see that Bangladesh strengthens its democratic institutions and holds free and fair elections in which Hasina and her party men are also free to participate.