No let-up in hostility
Covid-19 has exacted a heavy toll on both the US and Iran, but not diminished their mutual hostility and sharp rhetoric. President Trump and the Iranian leaders have continued to be publicly critical of each other. Tensions have, once again, risen in the last few days after Iran said it had succeeded in putting a military satellite—its first—into space. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander-in-chief Hossein Salami boasted that the step marked the ‘beginning of the formation of a world power’. Reacting to the launch, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stressed that it was not ‘consistent’ with UNSC resolutions on Iran and hence asked that Iran should be held to account.
President Trump also tweeted on Iran, but on the actions of Iranian gunboats, which he said harassed US navy vessels in the Gulf. He stated that he had ‘instructed’ the navy to ‘shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea’. In response, Salami asserted that Iran would take ‘decisive, effective and quick counteraction’ to any US attack.
It is true that small but armed Iranian naval boats occasionally buzz and circle large US navy ships. While these actions are provocative, they become dangerous if the US vessels determine that they threaten their safety. Then, exchanges of fire can ensue. Trump’s tweet does not mean that the US navy is changing its rules of engagement; indeed, as of now, it does not seem to be doing so, but the regional countries will closely monitor the situation.
Both the US and Iran have been severely impacted by Covid. Iran has admitted to over 89,000 cases and more than 5,600 deaths so far, but many observers believe that the actual figures may be much more. Its case load peaked in late March-early April, and since then, the curve has gone down. Consequently, it has opened up its economy, though not fully. While it is emphasising adherence to social distancing norms, there are fears that infections may now surge. The US, with over 9 lakh cases and more than 54,000 fatalities, is currently the country most severely hit by the virus. Some analysts feel that the US’s almost chaotic response to the pandemic and its current need to combat it is providing Iran opportunities to quietly make moves on the regional chess board and ‘provoke’ the US navy. It is unlikely, though, to seek an open confrontation, at this stage, with the US.
Ironically, both Trump and the Iranian leaders downplayed the potential impact of Covid as it entered the two countries and began spreading. The Iranian authorities asked the people not to worry about the virus, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei asserted that the country’s enemies were exaggerating the threat. Trump remained in denial about the dangers of Covid, despite the alarms sounded from concerned officials.
Iran has charged that its capabilities to contain the pandemic have been hit by US oil and financial sanctions. Iranian foreign minister claimed in late March that the US was undertaking ‘medical terror amidst Covid-19’ against Iran. On its part, the US has denied that the sanctions make an adverse impact on Iran’s medical response. The fact is that the sanctions make transactions difficult to get medical stocks. While Trump has said he is willing to help if the Iranians ask for assistance, the bitterness between the two countries is a barrier against any such appeal by the Iranian leaders. A suo motu suspension of sanctions for medical supplies would have been the humane step for Trump to take, but that would be expecting too much of him.
US sanctions reimposed by Trump in 2018, after he abrogated the nuclear deal, have disrupted Iran’s economy. Its oil exports have fallen to abysmally low levels, depriving it of much-needed revenues. International companies have been afraid to do business with Iran because of the fear of inviting US sanctions on themselves. The sanctions have also made international financial transactions difficult with Iran. All this is leading to economic contraction. This has tested the people’s patience and there were agitations in November, when the government increased petrol prices. The agitations continued to spread in many parts of the country. Reports indicated that in some cases, slogans were raised against the clerical leadership, too, but the vilayat-e-faqih system has deep roots with a strong array of support systems.
There are sections of the US establishment that have never reconciled to the Iranian revolution, despite the passage of over four decades. They have always wanted regime change, and Iranian nuclear ambitions also buttressed this desire. Thus, for 40 years the basic thrust of US policy in the region was to support the Sunni Arab peninsular states, promote Iran’s isolation and retard its nuclear programme. Despite their mutual differences in many areas, Israel and the Sunni Arab states were in agreement with this approach.
The then President Obama decided to change this policy by trading the containment of Iran’s nuclear programme for the end of its isolation. The Sunni Arab states and Israel strongly contested the policy change, but Obama persevered and the result was the nuclear deal which unshackled Iran. It soon spread its wings to consolidate its position in the contested areas of the region through working with Shia groups.
Trump reversed Obama’s approach and revived all instruments and objectives of the pre-Obama policy: sanctions, pressure, full support for the Sunni Arab countries and regime change.
Covid has not made any change in Trump’s Iran policy.
