Old guard faces litmus test in Nepal elections
THE Nepal elections held on November 20 were like none other after the introduction of multi-party democracy in the country. The final results are unlikely before November 30, maybe later. As of now, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s Nepali Congress (NC)-led ruling coalition is on course to win a majority.
The voter turnout of 61 per cent was the lowest since 1991 due to disenchantment and frustration of the electorate with old-guard Prime Ministers like Deuba, Krishna Prasad Oli of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist or UML) and Maoists’ Prachanda.
The social media campaign of #nonotagain has resulted in youth leaders like Balen Shah and Harka Rai being elected as Mayors of Kathmandu and Dharan, respectively, overwhelming the NC and UML candidates in the recent local elections. Former TV anchor Rabi Lamichhane’s Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) has trounced veteran leaders and is likely to be the fourth largest party after the NC, UML and Prachanda Maoists.
In this very complex contest between two alliances — NC Gathbandhan and UML coalition — Lamichhane is emerging as a likely kingmaker, a card held by Madhesi leader Upendra Yadav (Janata Samajwadi Party) and Prachanda. The Deuba alliance has the NC, Maoists (Centre), Maoists (Socialists), Loktantrik JSP and Rastriya Janamorcha. Yadav jumped ship and joined the Oli alliance with the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP).
Monarchist RPP has risen from the ashes. Independents too have beaten traditional party candidates. Fifteen to 20 heavyweights have been defeated and more are trailing. Nepal’s mixed electoral system is throwing up an outcome full of surprises and heartbreaks.
Oli is the PM candidate of the UML alliance. This is the first election where parties have contested in a pre-poll alliance. Transfer of votes did not occur, especially with NC supporters not voting for Maoists due to their excesses during the Civil War. Rebel candidates popped up to upset the apple cart. Each voter had to put four slips into the ballot box: one each for the post for federal and provincial assemblies and similarly for proportional representation. This is not simple even after coaching in remote areas.
National list candidates and party recognition are determined by aggregate votes for a party which must cross the 3 lakh threshold. Some glitches occurred on the election day, but no serious breach of the election code or violence was reported, even though two former Maoist parties — one led by Mohan Baidya and another spearheaded by Netra Bikram Chand — boycotted the elections and asked people in vain to do the same.
Terrible is the fate of the Maoists who swept to power after the Civil War in 2008, bagging 229 of 601 seats in constituent Assembly elections. Having used both the bullet and the ballot to win the elections, they sought to capture ‘power’ unconstitutionally. Prachanda was punished in the next Constituent Assembly elections — his party’s tally was reduced to 83 seats.
The picture from Madhes has changed again. The Madhesi parties that had ousted the NC, UML and Maoists after Yadav’s 2007 andolan have fared badly, including Mahanta Thakur’s LJSP. Surprisingly, the exception is formerly US-based computer scientist, author and political leader Dr CK Raut, who routed Yadav. His Janamat Party will make its debut in Parliament. Resham Lal Chaudhary, the indomitable Tharu leader from Tikapur who has been languishing in jail for five years, is making a comeback. Bijay Kumar Gachhadar, who is also a Tharu leader and sways with the wind, has won his seat.
This election featured catchy slogans coined by new parties like the RSP and Independents, with their election symbols — walking stick and bell — being showcased ‘to beat the corrupt and ring warning bells’. In 2008, the Maoist election slogan was vote-winning: “Aru lai heryo patak patak; hami lai heryo es patak (you have tried other parties earlier; try us now).” Oli visited Kathmandu’s Lord of Drinks in Thamel, the trendiest watering hole in Nepal, and got a rapper to encapsulate his ‘achievements’. Raja Gyanendra, the monarch dismissed in the 2006 revolution, has also shaken a leg in this discotheque to revive his fortunes.
I have been observing the electoral process since November 8, like I did in the local elections in 2017 from Pokhara and Kathmandu valleys, visiting several voting booths in Pokhara, the land of the Gorkhas, mainly Gurungs. Agnipath was not made an election issue, but it is a highly unpopular scheme here. Craftily, Oli launched his campaign from Dharchul near Kalapani, saying: “I will not allow a single inch of land to be encroached upon.” In Pokhara, I met Purna Bahadur Vishwakarma, who had worked as guard in a Chennai bank. He told me: “When you go back, tell Modi to ‘return our land’”. Kalapani has become a hugely emotional issue. India has kept its hands off these elections, while a Chinese contingent parked in Yak and Yeti hotel is trying to reunite all communists — Prachanda and Madhav Nepal — into Oli’s alliance.
It is hard to say which alliance will cross the 138-mark for a simple majority. Prediction pundits in Kathmandu are offering in order of likelihood three scenarios: a simple majority for the Deuba alliance; a win for the Oli coalition; and a hung Parliament and re-election in six months. The game of push and pull has begun. Lamichhane may now be the new kingmaker. But his price is: becoming Prime Minister. The NC already has several contenders for the PM’s post — Deuba, Ram Chandra Paudyel, Shekhar Koirala, not to forget ‘Young Turk’ Gagan Thapa and even Deuba’s wife Arzu Rana.
