THE Westphalian model of ‘nation state’ and ‘sovereignty’ has come under severe stress. Post Cold War, the United States, the sole superpower’s experiment of a liberal hegemony, and later its strategy of offshore balancing has led to fatigue and disenchantment across the spectrum. Within the US itself there were early signs, but it showed up unmistakingly in the run-up to the 2016 presidential election, and then, in the election of Donald Trump. The US may now witness a possible reversal to Jacksonian isolationism.
Globalisation that had started out as a great unifying idea for liberalism and free market enterprise has now its underbelly exposed. There is anger and hatred across the continents towards the greed that globalisation brought with it. The gulf between the haves and the have-nots has never been starker. The inequality is unconscionable. This is not without its flip side. Some large countries, with varying political ideologies and notions of free market enterprise have innovated protocols and inner control mechanisms to ride on the tailwinds of globalisation and technology diffusion, in new and ingenious ways, while protecting their own. This schism is also showing. The permanent markers that represented the stability of the world order are in danger of fragmenting!
Fault-lines in the world order became starkly discernible after the US committed its military to two expensive wars in Afghanistan and Iraq during the Bush years. The Obama presidency later waded into the conflicts in Libya and Syria. Others followed. China challenged the ‘Laws of the Sea’, and announced its road and belt strategy which transgresses into disputed territory. Russia annexed Crimea and set its eyes on the vulnerable parts of Baltic and Ukraine. North Korea is testing the waters with ballistic missile tests and nuclear brinkmanship. The fire in the Middle East is engulfing the neighbourhood, with ISIS-inspired cells stated to have the consequential presence. Saudi Arabia and Iran are playing chess with human lives to checkmate each other on the Shia-Sunni domination construct. Sufis propagating syncretic Islam are at the receiving end. Terrorism, or the killing and maiming of the unwary, has its footprints in several parts of the world. Our neighbourhood is the globally accepted epicentre. Social media is preying on the mind space of the young and the impressionable. Blogging is now the ‘fifth estate’. Information and misinformation are now indistinguishable. Cyber space is the new anonymous medium. Cybercrime is the new vocation. The world order appears unhinged.
India has stood out in splendid isolation. It could continue on this course till a new order takes shape. But the question is: Can it? Should we be content to remain bystanders? What serves our supreme national interest? The question can be rephrased: Is the changing landscape better served with or without our participation?
International order needs to rest not just on elite consensus and a balance of power policy, but also on the free choices of national communities — communities that need to feel protected from the outside world as much as they want to benefit from engaging with it. The other challenge is to codify the use of global commons, such as sea, ocean-beds, air space, cyberspace and environment — ‘for their equitable and peaceful use, for transit, resource generation, growth, and sustainable development. Henry Kissinger in his masterpiece World Order had this to say about India: ‘Under a Hindu nationalist-led government elected by decisive margins in May 2014 on a platform of reform and economic growth, India can be expected to pursue its traditional foreign policy goals with vigour.’
With India, Japan and China, all led by strong and strategically-oriented administrations, the scope both for intensified rivalries and bold resolutions will expand. In any of these evolutions, India will be a fulcrum of the 21st century order: an indispensable element based on its geography, resources and tradition of sophisticated leadership in the strategic and ideological evolution of the regions and the concepts of order at whose intersection it stands.
India’s role and importance in any new dispensation is evident because of several factors: its asymmetric capabilities in Indian Ocean Region due to its peninsular geo-location and as a middle riparian state for water resources in the third pole, its proven track record as a confluence of civilisations, free market, demographics and largely benign credentials.
For us in India, the relevant issues are whether the ISIS is a challenge; the rise of China: its Pakistan nexus, Indian economic interdependence and competition; the impact of the power shift that is taking place from the Atlantic to the Pacific; the economic and social meltdown of the idea of EU, Brexit and resultant refocusing of regional blocs and the place of NAM and similar approaches in today’s world. Will tackling all these developments still preserve the option of strategic autonomy? Should we keep ourselves locked in the concept of minimalist accommodation and maximalist antagonism to both China and Pakistan? Will Trump be a hindrance or an ally or both? Then there is the threat of deglobalisation, climate change and an unchanging UN.
Are all these factors heralding the emergence of a new formulation? In the changing landscape, there is a case for India to stand up to be counted. Can the present government, which enjoys complete dominance of domestic politics and enormous credibility and goodwill abroad, earn for itself a place on the high table? ‘Where there is no vision, the people perish’. Time has not altered this principle, but neither has it dispensed the gift of vision any more generously than in biblical days. What then is a good start for the vision forecast?
The world order is changing. We need to understand how the world will evolve and within that what should be our grand strategy to earn for ourselves a rightful place on the high table.
The writer is a former Western Army Commander. Extracts from the Concept Note for the Pune Dialogue on National Security 2017.
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