Opposition unity still has a long way to go

One thing that can be said with certainty today is that the Opposition is in a state of flux. There is another thing that can be said with an equal degree of certainty — that the Congress continues to be in decline.

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There are two groups in the Opposition which are showing signs of growth, and they seem to have a plan on how they are going to go about spreading their wings. These parties are the Trinamool Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Both are one-state entities as of now.

The TMC is consolidating its hold over West Bengal. After its stupendous victory in May, there is a rush for ghar wapsi by those who had deserted the party in favour of the BJP. Those who had joined the BJP thinking the grass was greener on the other side are coming back, and four such MLAs are already back. It started with the return of Mamata Banerjee’s one-time lieutenant Mukul Roy.

Mamata can cock a snook at the BJP today by saying that it need not waste its money on fighting Bhabanipur, her traditional seat from where she’s going to contest again. For some time, the EC made Mamata sweat by not announcing the dates for the bypoll immediately. Having lost in Nandigram, Mamata needs to be elected within six months of taking over to remain the Chief Minister.

Both the TMC and the AAP are eyeing other states today. Mamata will want to increase her footprints in the north-east of India, where there is a sizeable population of Bengalis. These states account for 25 Lok Sabha seats, equal to a mid-sized state. She has already knuckled down to work in Tripura which goes to polls in 2023.

Mamata Banerjee has sent a strong message with the induction of Sushmita Dev in the TMC. Sushmita may add value to the Trinamool’s fight in Tripura, Her father Santosh Mohan Dev contested from Tripura twice, though the family is from Cachar district in Assam. Sushmita Dev was a prize catch, having been part of Rahul Gandhi’s core team. But she had become disillusioned in the Congress and was sidelined in the 2021 Assembly elections in Assam.

Sushmita’s entry in the Trinamool Congress has projected the TMC as an alternative pole that other disillusioned Congress leaders can gravitate to, if they don’t want to defect to the BJP. Recently, 500 Congress workers in Assam joined the TMC.

Former Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha has already gone to the TMC and become its vice-president. There was a buzz that Shatrughan Sinha may quit the Congress and go to the TMC.

Former Prime Minister VP Singh used to say that it is “courage which creates charisma”. As Mamata continues to take on Narendra Modi frontally, her appeal is growing beyond Bengal among those becoming disenchanted with the BJP. That she was able to defeat the saffron party soundly, without being cowed down by money, muscle or brute power, has added to her appeal.

It is early days to decide on how the Mamata story will pan out beyond the shores of Bengal. But many in the country are looking at her with renewed interest.

Come now to the Aam Aadmi Party which is confined to “little” Delhi, not even a state. Arvind Kejriwal has declared that his party will fight the forthcoming elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Punjab. If he wins one more state, he too will become a player to watch. At one stage, AAP was exploring the possibility of tying up with the Samajwadi Party and its allies in UP.

According to latest surveys — though they are not always reliable but often indicate the broad trends — AAP is apparently outpacing the Congress in Punjab, which may throw up a hung Assembly in the elections due early next year. AAP had underperformed in Punjab in 2017. The BJP is said to have stymied it, and as Arun Jaitley had once disclosed, “we transferred our vote to Captain (Amarinder Singh) to prevent AAP from coming to power.” AAP’s problem in Punjab is the absence of an acceptable face to lead the party.

While the TMC is looking at enticing leaders from the established parties, AAP is for generating new political energies. Recently, it brought in its ambit, actor Sonu Sood, who is acclaimed widely for his work during the pandemic. For the moment, Sood will lead a programme to “mentor” young people. But he may well help AAP in Punjab in the future.

Mamata’s politics has been to the Left, and her success in 2012 was to ‘outleft’ the Left parties, when she ousted the Left Front, that had been in power for 34 years.

Kejriwal is positioning himself to capture some of the space occupied by the BJP. The AAP leaders have flagged off patriotism as a theme, and their deshbhakti curriculum for schools, the 500 tirangas all over Delhi, is part of celebrations of 75 years of India’s Independence. They say their nationalism is “inclusive”, to create love for the country and a responsible citizenry with a civic sense, but it is a tightrope walk for AAP. For the BJP will try and trip them at every step.

Going by the way the Congress has brought on a crisis in Punjab and Chhattisgarh, where none existed, the ‘high command’ (the Gandhi family) seems to have decided that they will not relinquish control of the party and make way for someone else, whether they head a one-state party or a ten-state one. If nothing else works, they will wait for the day when public opinion turns to them by default.

Otherwise, it is very difficult to comprehend why Captain Amarinder Singh was weakened by the elevation of Navjot Singh Sidhu as the PPCC chief. Even if a transition had to be made from Captain to Sidhu, there were better ways of doing it, unless the intention was to put Captain in his place. The way Punjab has been handled has done nothing for Captain nor for Sidhu, or for that matter for the poll prospects of the Congress.

What does it all add up to in terms of Opposition unity without which the non-Congress parties cannot mount a challenge to the BJP in 2024?

The shape of a united Opposition will depend on what happens in the coming months. There are a dozen Assembly elections due between now and 2024. The situation will begin to get clear only by the end of 2023 or early 2024. But there is nothing to prevent the Opposition parties from building their narrative, hitting the road, working at the grassroots, strengthening their vote base, and fashioning alliances which could provide an alternative to the BJP in the states. At least for the time being till the larger picture becomes clear.