Pakistan at a crossroads all over again

Shalini Chawla

Distinguished Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies

TWO contenders have claimed victory in Pakistan’s general election. Former PM Nawaz Sharif has declared that the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) has emerged as the single largest party, even though it does not have a majority. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) founder Imran Khan, who is behind bars in multiple cases, delivered his ‘victory speech’ in his AI-generated voice and claimed that independent candidates backed by his party had won the highest number of seats in the National Assembly (NA).

The election results reflect the anger of the youth, who have rejected dynasty politics, the military’s political hegemony and the growing harassment of Imran.

As the PTI did not contest the election, it is not eligible for the reserved seats (70) in the NA. These seats are crucial for any party to get a majority. For this purpose, PTI-backed winners need to join another party, and that might not be easy.

The February 8 polls were held amid speculation and apprehensions in the backdrop of the economic, security and political crises in Pakistan. The military decided to keep Imran — at present the most popular political leader in the country — in prison, isolating him from the democratic process and the election scene. He was barred from contesting and the mainstream media in Pakistan was banned from mentioning his name or broadcasting his images. The party was not allowed to use its election symbol (cricket bat) and its members contested as independents. Even the PTI’s virtual campaign faced roadblocks. However, despite the military’s pressure tactics, Imran’s popularity remains intact.

The poll proceedings were heavily manipulated in the PML-N’s favour. The voting day witnessed power shutdown and disruption of the mobile phone network throughout the country, resulting in problems for the voters and party members. There were allegations of ballot tampering and reports of violence at some polling stations. Reportedly, the Election Commission of Pakistan has ordered repolling at some polling stations.

Pakistan’s electoral system has always been largely controversial, marked by political machinations and military interference; the 2024 polls were no exception. However, what made this election distinct were Imran’s popularity and the challenge it posed to the military establishment, deep polarisation within society and state institutions, and reverberations of the May 9, 2023, violence, which was not only unprecedented but also undermined the military’s image. On the one hand, the security establishment has been facing relentless terror attacks by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, with the emboldened militant group showing no sign of reconciliation; on the other, the most powerful institution in the country continues to grapple with strong anti-military sentiment. Despite the PTI’s failure to manage the economic crisis and critical foreign relations during its tenure, Imran managed to whip up deep-rooted anti-establishment and anti-West sentiment in his support. His appeal among the youth has been bolstered by the PTI’s aggressive social media campaign and has unnerved the establishment and his political opponents. State coercion has failed to eclipse the popular choice, and the election results are being seen by many as a major blow to the military. Information can no longer be concealed by the military in this age. The election results do reflect the anger of the youth, who have rejected dynasty politics, the military’s political hegemony and the growing harassment of Imran.

The situation in Pakistan continues to evolve, although an assessment can be made on the basis of the nation’s track record. Imran has undoubtedly emerged as the hero of the masses. Will this imply that the cases against him will be quashed and he will be back in power? Will Pakistan see an Arab Spring? Will the all-powerful military accept the people’s choice? The likelihood of these scenarios turning into reality is low. However, some sort of compromise between Imran and his opponents, with the tacit consent of the military, is a possibility.

There is also speculation about Imran’s future. Pakistan’s political history suggests that he could escape his court battles by agreeing to the military’s terms, going into exile like his predecessors and probably returning when the Nawaz Sharif-Gen Syed Asim Munir bonhomie ends and the military starts looking for an alternative. However, Imran’s popularity is based on his resilience to stand against the military and his conviction to stand by the people of Pakistan. Going into exile will be counterproductive in his case.

There is a strong probability of the PML-N forming the government in alliance with the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). Despite Nawaz returning from exile and the party expecting a landslide victory in Punjab, the PML-N’s performance has been weak. The PPP performed well and has managed a victory in Sindh. Some independent candidates also might be won over or coerced to join the alliance. The coalition government will lack legitimacy and might be a weak dispensation. This could impact its ability to take firm decisions, which are badly needed for economic reforms.

The next government will have a tough road ahead. Pakistan’s economic crisis requires bold structural changes to address the balance of payments deficit and high inflation, and to increase the tax base and improve productivity. Raising funds and investments will have to be a priority for the government.

Nawaz’s return to power could improve Pakistan’s relations with Saudi Arabia. Pakistan needs to cautiously strike a balance between its ties with the US and its closeness to its indispensable ally, China.

Pakistan’s security situation remains a cause for concern; the polarisation in society will have no easy resolution either. Imran’s popularity is unlikely to die down anytime soon. In the past few months, Pakistan’s military has gained more power constitutionally and institutionally to revive its image and credibility and also to tackle instability in the country. It remains to be seen if the new government will be able to perform and complete its tenure.

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