Peace in West Asia suffers a body blow

Yogesh Gupta

Former Ambassador

HOURS after Palestinian militant group Hamas launched an unprecedented attack on Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared a war. The strikes, which occurred from the air, land and sea, and the retaliation have resulted in the death of hundreds of Israelis and Palestinians. The attack came as a complete surprise to the Israeli and American intelligence and security forces. The Israeli army has called about 1,00,000 reservists for a full-scale ground invasion of Gaza, if needed. Netanyahu has vowed ‘mighty vengeance’ to ‘finish’ the Hamas terrorists in Gaza.

The Israelis had started believing that the Hamas had accepted the relatively peaceful co-existence as more than 19,000 Palestinian workers were going to Israel for work and benefiting from the Israeli economy. The scale and ferocity of the Hamas attack indicate that it was the outcome of long and meticulous planning involving personnel from the political, intelligence, military operations and urban warfare branches. Although there is no concrete evidence yet, the involvement of Iran and its proxies such as Hezbollah appears likely as the Hamas has not executed such complex strikes earlier.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi had said in an interview with NBC News last month: “We are against any bilateral relations between our regional countries and the Zionist regime. We believe that the latter is intending to normalise its relations with them to create security for itself in the region.” Tehran believed that if Saudi Arabia recognised Israel, it would encourage other Arab states to follow suit, leaving Iran isolated.

Iran has supported the “legitimate defence of the Palestinian nation”. The Iranian President has spoken to the heads of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, promising support. The Hezbollah in Lebanon is already launching missile attacks against Israel. US President Joe Biden has thrown his weight behind Israel and promised to send immediate military assistance; he has despatched an aircraft carrier to the region to cut off any external support.

Beginning in September 2020, the then Trump administration had facilitated the signing of a series of agreements called the Abraham Accords to normalise relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, is in favour of a comprehensive deal with the USA and Israel, under which the USA would sign a defence treaty with Saudi Arabia and help in establishing a civilian nuclear energy programme; Israel would provide land in the West Bank for a separate Palestinian state and Saudi Arabia would normalise relations with Israel. The deal would also check the growing influence of China and Iran in the region and provide enormous economic and security benefits to Saudi Arabia. Both Iran and the Hamas were against this deal as it would only establish a truncated Palestine state and further increase US-Israeli influence. Iran has been trying to step up its activities in the West Bank and Gaza over the past year, as per some US officials.

The reaction of the Arab world to the Hamas attack has been on expected lines. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Bahrain, Oman and Morocco have taken the middle path, asking for de-escalation of hostilities, protection of civilians and finding a two-state solution to the Palestinian issue for peace and security in the region. Iran, Syria, Qatar and Kuwait have largely blamed Israel in varied terms for the ongoing escalation of violence and denial of rights to the Palestinian people, including the establishment of an independent Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders. The UK and the EU are supporting Israel, while China has asked for an immediate ceasefire, protection of civilians and resumption of peace talks leading to a two-state solution.

Expressing deep shock over the terror attack, PM Narendra Modi has said that India stands “in solidarity with Israel at this difficult hour”. India’s economy and security are now deeply enmeshed with those of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the USA and Europe in multiple ways, including through the I2U2 grouping and the proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. India believes that the zero-sum security approach of the past must give way to a new era of connectivity and prosperity among these countries.

The Hamas attack is a strong blow to the Israeli hubris; after 50 years, the former has been able to make extensive and deep raids into Israeli territory, showing that the Israeli security is not invincible. The Netanyahu government, which had weakened following protests over judicial reforms, has got a new lease of life, with the opposition parties supporting it. However, it would have to answer probing questions about the failure of its intelligence and security agencies.

The Palestinian issue, which had got marginalised following the signing of the Abraham Accords, has returned to the centre stage of Arab-Israeli politics. However, for the Netanyahu government, the priority is to finish off the Hamas rather than consider concessions for the Palestinians regarding a separate state. As Israel’s counterattack on the Hamas militants is causing large-scale Palestinian casualties, the prospects of an accord between Israel and Saudi Arabia in the near future have dwindled.

Hopes for peace in West Asia were raised following the signing of agreements between Iran and Saudi Arabia as well as Israel and four Abraham Accords countries and the return of Syria to the Arab mainstream. The raids by Hamas may aggravate tensions, instability and violence in the region. Iran is likely to continue playing the role of a disruptor, scuttling attempts to restore peace and stability in the region on Israeli terms. If Iran’s hand in the raids is proven, its relations with Arab countries would worsen again, rekindling old rivalries.

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