Poll verdict takes Pak army down a peg

Manoj Joshi

Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi

THE surprise outcome of the Pakistan elections suggests that the army is losing ground as the arbiter of the Islamic republic’s destiny. This is not very different from what is happening on our eastern borders, where the Myanmar army (Tatmadaw), which has virtually run the country after independence, is on the back foot against the democratic and separatist forces that it had successfully battled till now.

It is now up to Islamabad/Rawalpindi to pick up the gauntlet. Pakistan needs a peaceful border even more than India does.

At this juncture, it is difficult to tell how Pakistani politics will shape up in the coming period. Nawaz Sharif and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari may once again cobble together a government, but there will remain serious issues concerning governability, given the strong showing by candidates backed by Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). The nominees overcame a raft of measures aimed at suppressing the party and delivered an outstanding performance. The fighting spirit they displayed against odds could serve as an inspiration to our own Opposition.

The election outcome would suggest that the Pakistan army has lost a great deal of traction. Recall the May 9, 2023 incidents when, after Imran’s arrest, PTI supporters had resorted to violence across the country, damaging government property and even attacking military facilities in Pakistan Punjab.

All these developments are important for India. Our relations with Islamabad may be in the deep freeze, but they cannot stay that way forever. Those who believe that we can let Pakistan sink or swim on its own are delusional. Subcontinental peace and economic integration are vital for our future as a global power of any kind.

The India-Pakistan relations have been going through a curious phase in recent times. On the one hand, infiltration by Pakistani jihadis and their attacks continue. On the other, the Pakistani establishment has sought to reach out to India. In the meantime, pressed by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), Islamabad has jailed Hafiz Saeed for 31 years and Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi has got three consecutive five-year sentences. Islamabad also ‘found’ and convicted the principal organiser of the 2008 Mumbai attacks, Sajid Mir.

In January 2023, then Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif (Nawaz’s younger brother) declared amid the gloom in the country: “We have learnt our lesson, and we want to live in peace with India, provided we are able to resolve our genuine problems.” But the very next day, his office announced that no dialogue was possible as long as India did not restore Kashmir’s constitutional status.

Since then, the Supreme Court has upheld the government’s revocation of Article 370 and it has also called for the restitution of Jammu & Kashmir’s statehood. But that would still involve new boundaries minus the union territory of Ladakh.

Actually, even before the strain in relations on account of the Pulwama attack and the abrogation of Article 370, the two countries were trying to establish a back-channel dialogue involving a former ISI deputy chief and an Indian intelligence officer. Later, NSA Ajit Doval met then ISI chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed in a Gulf country. Plans were made in 2021 for a Modi visit to Pakistan and a pilgrimage to the Hinglaj Mata Temple in Sindh. But then PM Imran backed out; in 2022, he was thrown out of office.

Picking up the threads of the relationship will be the challenge now, even as there has been good chemistry between Modi and Nawaz. But a lot of water has flown under the bridge since the former descended on Lahore to wish the latter happy birthday in 2015. Importantly, the 2019 Balakot airstrikes clearly indicated that New Delhi would not hesitate to attack Pakistan in the event of a major terror attack.

It is now up to Islamabad/Rawalpindi to pick up the gauntlet. Pakistan needs peace and tranquillity and a peaceful border even more than India does. Its economic condition continues to be dire; the threat of jihadi terrorism is growing by the day and the international community is using the FATF to keep it on a tight leash. The dividends that were expected from the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan have failed to materialise and instead, Pakistan has got into a dangerous quarrel with Iran.

For their own reasons, the US and China have common interests in Pakistan — primarily, the political stability and economic health of a state with nuclear weapons. This is because both seek peace and security in the region and an environment in which the Pakistan-Afghanistan region will not become a breeding ground for extremists.

Despite its BRI investments, China has seen that it alone cannot guarantee Pakistan’s economic wellbeing and that other countries and the IMF remain important players The Chinese also know that Pakistan remains an important trading partner for the US and that Washington has deep equities in Rawalpindi. For the US, Pakistan is also an important means of surveilling what is happening in Afghanistan, where the Islamic State is gaining strength.

As for New Delhi from the military point of view, India’s actions have spoken in another way: it has shifted its focus from Pakistan towards China in the past three years. It is in India’s interests to quieten the Pakistan border, where the noise is entirely of Pakistani origin. The way to go would be to once again start with establishing a high-level back-channel. The latter’s task would be to reduce the prevailing friction and choreograph a new approach to relations between the two countries.

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