Power play keeps Pakistan on edge

Rajesh Ramachandran

AMONG all pre-modern rites and rituals associated with the anachronistic pageant at Westminster Abbey last week, what one waited for was the coronation oath. About 70 years ago, when Queen Elizabeth II was administered the oath on June 2, 1953, her territories included Pakistan. Obviously, her son does not have the luxury of counting “independent” countries as his territory. But that does not in any way diminish the influence of the Anglo-American enterprise over post-colonial societies, particularly the failed states in South Asia.

Imran’s release from custody and the video showing his sprightly walk inside the court complex are testimony to his power to make the army bend.

Pakistan’s misery is its own creation, driven by the British strategic objective to safeguard its imperial interests and oil reserves in the Persian Gulf against the Soviets and their deep suspicion of Indian nationalists. So, when military dictators and their favourite political pawns fight over crumbs of power thrown at them by the West, it is only the people of that unfortunate country who keep losing. It is the same story that gets enacted over and over — Gen Yahya Khan propping up Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and the latter backstabbing him, only to be deposed and hanged by his handpicked General, Zia-ul-Haq. Bhutto had overlooked the seniority of seven Generals to appoint Zia the army chief.

The only constant actor in this sordid drama of coups, assassinations, rigged elections and military dictatorial interludes is the Anglo-American interest, which legitimises even a genocide of three million Bangladeshis. So is it now with the curious case of Imran Khan, the immensely popular politician. For a dirt-poor Third World nation bereft of any kind of success, Imran brought cricketing glory, captaining Pakistan to a World Cup triumph in 1992. But he personalised this stupendous win by dedicating it to his effort to build a cancer hospital in his mother’s name in Lahore. He used his moment under the spotlight to turn a group effort and a team’s victory into his private triumph.

In the next three decades, Imran successfully turned his cricketing accomplishment into political capital, and that too of the Islamist self-righteous variety, which obviously is what ideologically sustains the Pakistani military-intelligence establishment. Jinnah’s two-nation myth, concocted on behalf of his British masters, can only be perpetuated with newer proponents of Islamist nationalism, sponsored by the West and the army. Imran’s electoral march to power, rigged or otherwise, was thus guaranteed by the army and made convincing by his unmistakable charisma. But as it always happens with Islamist populist leaders, Imran too got delusional in the din of religious sloganeering and jihadist jingoism.

The script failed when he turned against the army and the Americans, visiting Russia at the onset of the Ukrainian offensive and later accusing the Americans of toppling his government. Imran even found virtue in India’s independent foreign policy, seeking to play up Third World post-colonial anxieties. He is more than a regular Islamist populist, for he has succeeded in using his anti-West rhetoric to delegitimise the Pakistan army. And his fanatical supporters are not limited to the lumpen proletariat, but even include the lower rungs of the military, who might have facilitated the attacks against military establishments, including the army headquarters.

Imran’s release from custody and the video showing his sprightly walk inside the court complex are testimony to his power to make the army bend, which he derives solely from his people connect. Interestingly, a WhatsApp voice clip — purportedly that of a Pakistani — circulated soon after Imran’s arrest claims a brewing dissent in the army with three corps commanders leaving their houses that came under attack and refusing to take orders from army chief Gen Syed Asim Munir. Well, Imran’s release is proof of the worsening situation and the fear of an uprising, if any was required.

Meanwhile, the Pakistan army is deepening its iron-clad friendship with China, brokering the latter’s Belt and Road Initiative with Afghanistan, which will obviously strengthen the encirclement of India using the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor arc. It is in this context that PM Narendra Modi is making his first state visit to Washington. And the need for a new chapter in the India-US partnership has never been more critical for the West and India. All this while, India has been enduring a two-front hostility, with one neighbour militarily getting equipped and the other economically being built up by the US. Hence, it is more of an American need than an Indian imperative to transform the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue into a meaningful geopolitical entity (any alliance ideally should take time) that can intervene and stop Chinese expansionism.

While the West worked towards the Balkanisation of India, delegitimising its democracy and federalism, propping up religious secessionist forces and cultural pretenders, the threat of splintering of Pakistan in the event of a mutiny in the army is real and obviously terrifying, what with its nuclear arsenal. With the army, politicians like Imran and the masses drifting closer to China, Pakistan is slipping away from the Western grip sooner than anticipated. All the threats that the Soviets posed since the 1940s have now got multiplied with a Pakistan-China-Russia alliance, which only the West refuses to see. Imran’s re-emergence as a re-elected Prime Minister will be the ideal objective condition for the first true Pakistani mass leader rising to lead the country. Even Bhutto’s popularity would pale into insignificance in comparison because Imran would have then defeated the ruling parties, the army and, symbolically, the West.

The only alternative to the emergence of a leader assuming dictatorial powers inimical to the neighbourhood could be a military takeover, which appears imminent. The fallout, even if it amounts to withering away of the State, may counterpoise the Chinese threat with more actors getting involved. Whereas, if Gen Munir is successful in keeping the armed forces together, he can restore status quo ante. As for the West, it can shed its suspicion of Indian nationalists or accept a Chinese hegemonic order.

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