Prachanda’s visit aims to boost bilateral ties

Maj Gen Ashok K Mehta (retd)

POSTPONED at least thrice and then confirmed only last week, the visit of Nepal PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) to India was a case of when, not if, it would take place. Prachanda’s four-day visit begins today. The MEA noted that the event ‘underscores importance given by both sides to adding further momentum to bilateral partnership.’

Prachanda has made much of his first foreign visit after he assumed office in December 2022, emphasising that it was a tradition to visit India first. However, when he became PM in 2008, he chose to go to China, which he later clarified was not a political visit. He told the Kantipur Daily that ‘good preparations have been made this time’ and the ‘visit will script new history in bilateral ties.’ How this grand objective will be realised, given the periodic political instability in Nepal, is worth examining.

Prachanda is credited with transforming Nepal with the bullet and the ballot by achieving the Maoist objectives of a new Constitution and placing the Nepal army under political control. While Prachanda is still at the helm, his Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) has diminished in stature, its tally dropping from an overwhelming 227 seats to 83, then to 51 and 32 seats in various elections since 2008. Political stability has eluded Nepal, with no government or any prime minister completing the full term. The new mixed electoral system denies Nepal a single-party majority government.

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi first visited Nepal in June 2014, he took the people and Parliament by storm, capturing their hearts and minds. He said: “My work is neither to give directions nor interfere with your work because Nepal itself is a sovereign nation.” Many MoUs were signed, notably in power trade, but the events that followed — the 2015 blockade, Nepal’s trade and transit treat with China (2016), Nepal’s unilateral revision of the map (2019), Modi not receiving the Eminent Persons Group (EPG) report and Nepalese accusation of India’s micro-management — have sullied relations. Further, Big Powers-play and political instability prompted a Nepalese diplomat to say, “Nepal needs a leader like Modi with a commanding majority in the House.”

Third-time PM Prachanda is a changed leader who knows that this is his make-or-break chance. The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) has slipped to the number three position after the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist). He needs to reform his party and leadership and enhance his seat tally. He has proved to be an astute politician by winning three votes of confidence in two months and helping the NC in staging a comeback after being in the boondocks. It now has a president, several ministers in the cabinet and chief ministers of three out of seven provinces. The other four provinces are shared with the Maoists and the Janata Samajwadi Party.

Prachanda is leading the eight-party ruling coalition which is as stable as it gets in Nepal. New Delhi can help the coalition in ways that it has: getting the BJP’s foreign affairs incharge Vijay Chauthaiwale to tie a rakhi on former PM Sher Bahadur Deuba’s wife Arzu Rana and BJP president JP Nadda inviting Prachanda last July to New Delhi. Nurturing the NC and the revived CPN (Maoist Centre) is a sound political investment.

Prachanda has taken some impressive steps towards reducing corruption and improving governance. Leaders of the previous government involved in the scam of Nepalese, instead of Bhutanese, refugees being repatriated abroad are in jail. He has put on hold the purchase of military equipment from China where kickbacks are likely. He has pledged to progress the investigation of missing persons and Maoist excesses during the Civil War. The Truth and Reconciliation Commission will act now. A focus on the eradication of corruption is bound to resonate with the people.

Of late, India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy appears distracted by external issue-based alignments and preoccupation as chair of G20 and the SCO. India’s security concerns in the neighbourhood are exacerbated following confrontations with China in Doklam and Ladakh and Bhutan’s unilateral attempts to secure a border settlement with China.

Foreign Minister S Jaishankar, who has drawn praise from Modi for his diplomatic dexterity and global reach, requires to replicate India’s strategic recovery in Sri Lanka in Nepal. But he has maintained a light footprint in Nepal.

A busy programme has been drawn for Prachanda, including delegation-level talks. After the recent visits of Modi to Lumbini and Deuba to India, at least 12 MoUs are to be signed with Prachanda, making it historic. On May 27, Nepal awarded the 669-MW Lower Arun Hydropower Project to India, making it the biggest player in Nepal’s power sector. India can help Nepal reduce the perennial trade deficit. Prachanda’s agenda is said to include the resumption of foreign secretary-level talks on the border dispute and a request to Modi to accept the EPG report.

It is not known whether the one-year delayed decision on the Agnipath scheme — more maligned in Nepal than in India — will be discussed. But it could be during the one-on-one between the two PMs. It is unfortunate that India is forgetting the import of the Gorkha connection and the strategic benefits that Gorkha soldiers and ex-servicemen in Nepal provide to the bilateral partnership.

At the reception hosted for Prachanda by his Embassy in New Delhi, former Indian Army Chiefs, who are Honorary Generals in the Nepal Army (and vice versa), are likely to recall Modi’s epic statement in the Nepal Parliament about the Gorkha sacrifices for protecting India’s sovereignty. Exempting Nepal from Agnipath will be a historic gesture. It can be the start of ‘scripting history’ in ‘bilateral ties’.

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