Protracted on purpose

In The Art of War, written in ancient China, Sun Tzu said, “Victory is the main objective in war, to be achieved swiftly through surprise, deception and mobility… there has never been a protracted war from which a country has benefited…” China of Sun Tzu’s times was a thriving civilisation within its boundaries, in stark contrast to the land-grab spree of latter-day dictators and autocratic regimes of both the Occident and the Orient.

Following Sun Tzu’s doctrine in letter and spirit, which major country has achieved a monumental victory in a war in the shortest possible time in the past 200 years of world history? Arguably, it’s India, which set an extraordinary example for the West and the East with its enviable victory in the 1971 war.

An intense war of a short duration, however, doesn’t seem to be in the DNA of the major powers of the West. That speaks volumes about the prolonged and ceaseless warfare in western history during the past 500 years.

Thus, while turning over the pages of world history, it is evident that apart from economic damage and political upheaval, protracted wars have adversely impacted the geographical boundaries of warring western nations. Perhaps, that’s the prime reason one doesn’t see a single country from Europe (except Russia) in the league of the world’s largest nations. Long and protracted wars in Europe have not allowed the growth and existence of big states as rivalries have taken their toll on geographical expansion in Europe’s heartland. And that’s one of the biggest worries for the West, including the USA.

Russia is not only big but also resource-rich. Hence, when Ukraine was born in 1991, it instantly became the second biggest European nation (after Russia) in terms of size, with an area of around 6,04,000 square km. The simultaneous collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of Ukraine were, therefore, impregnated with the seeds of a long and protracted war, which the world is witnessing today. And though it is called the Russia-Ukraine war, in reality, it is the ‘Third Great European War’, the first and second ones being referred to as the First and Second World Wars.

That brings us to the next logical question. In World War I, the western empires of Russia, Austria-Hungary, Germany and Turkey fought and each of them was comprehensively defeated, both militarily and politically. Similarly, when Berlin and Moscow fought in World War II, the vanquished Germany lost everything and one of the victors, Russia, took years to recover. All these wars, thus, validate Sun Tzu’s prophetic observation that prolonged, protracted wars never do any good to belligerents in any way whatsoever.

Is it not correct to say that the two biggest nations of Europe are fighting a long war to prove Sun Tzu right? Eighteen months gone and it’s now a fight to the finish (perform or perish) for both sides. Prima facie, this view can be challenged as unsubstantiated, speculative and mere inference, but can one really be so sure?

The truth is that big countries will fight for big stakes; the West has learnt a lesson from the colossal loss of men, military equipment and land in the two World Wars to not venture to take on big powers any more. Thus, it’s done under the aegis of the United Nations or the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) or under some fanciful banner to give a cover to the West’s war against the weak. In Ukraine, too, the West is fighting for its survival and revival because of its astronomical investments in military equipment to fight Russia for the sake of territorial and economic interests. The nations of Asia and Africa are no longer considered ‘easy to exploit’, safe or lucrative.

Hence, the Ukraine war holds the promise of good investment returns for the West as both Moscow and Kyiv will get weakened and their territories are likely be parcelled out by like-minded NATO partners like after the end of the war. Every long-drawn-out global war has seen changes in geographical boundaries and territories of large countries. Apart from the two World Wars, there have been wars in Korea, Vietnam, Yugoslavia and the Indian subcontinent. Throughout the past 200 years, Europe’s maps have undergone changes and a protracted war will change it again. Though the behemoth called the USSR shrank in size overnight without a war, the question is: which nation-state since the 1648 Treaty of Westphalia underwent such an unprecedented trauma of unparalleled proportions?

The writing is on the wall. It’s a territorial war for all — Russia, Ukraine and the West. No land gain today means further rise of the non-West nations in the global arena. Afghanistan, too, saw an indirect land war as 40-odd western countries failed to achieve their objectives even after 20 years of bloodshed. The overnight retreat from Kabul happened during US President Biden’s tenure. Is this the reason Biden is ardently and staunchly keen on spending billions of dollars on the ‘Third European War’ on the Ukraine-Crimea front? Is he trying to show a result before the 2024 presidential election amidst allegations of his son Hunter’s shady business deals with Ukrainian and Chinese companies when Biden was the US Vice-President? Are the individual interests of the US President coming in the way of a ceasefire in Ukraine?

Only time will tell the real story behind the current war, which is now a full-fledged war of the West. Simply put, protracted wars of the West are once again proving to be a curse for the rest of the world, like in the previous global conflagrations.