Putin shakes the world

G Parthasarathy

Chancellor, Jammu Central University & former High Commissioner to Pakistan

In an emotional address to his people, and to the world at large, on the evening of February 22, Russian President Vladimir Putin spelt out the challenges that Russia faced from the US, which, he claimed, appeared set on destabilising Russia’s neighbourhood. This address came amid growing tensions in Russia’s relations with neighbouring Ukraine. Putin focused extensively on how, he claimed, the US had ‘maliciously’ sought to undermine and destabilise the Soviet Union. He also dwelt on the alleged role of Ukraine, as a partner, in more recent western conspiracies to destabilise the Russian Federation.

Jingoism and gloating by the US and others over Russia’s problems will have disastrous consequences.

He, however, added: ‘I would like to emphasise again that Ukraine is not just a neighbouring country for us. It is an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space.’ He concluded that in this situation, it was necessary ‘to take a long overdue decision to immediately recognise the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic’ — territories located in Ukraine. His proposal was quickly approved by Russia’s Parliament.

The stage was thus set on February 22 for a Russian faceoff, primarily with the US, amid Moscow’s growing tensions with Ukraine. US President Biden faced sharp domestic criticism over these developments. Republican politicians, led by former President Donald Trump and his Secretary of State Pompeo, asserted that what had happened was the result of inept handling by the Biden administration, much like what had transpired in Washington’s debacle during its ignominious withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Russian media, meanwhile, noted that Donetsk and Lugansk regions had asserted their independence from Ukraine.

Putin made it clear that it was not just Donetsk and Lugansk, but the whole of Ukraine which was the target of his territorial ambitions. His blunt criticism of past Soviet policies spared no one, including past Soviet era icons like Lenin, Stalin, Khrushchev, and three generations of the entire leadership of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. It was, to say the least, strange and inappropriate for him to criticise past leaders who laid the foundation of Russia’s scientific and technological achievements, and made the Soviet Union a world power.

Developments that have followed Putin’s territorial ambitions have created deep schisms across the world, and within his country. While his original territorial demands were confined to securing ‘independence’ from Ukrainian rule in some areas of Ukraine, Putin surprised the world by laying claim to the whole of Ukraine. This claim was accompanied by a military attack on Ukraine, which many assert was aimed at the takeover of the whole of Crimea. These developments, which have followed Putin’s recent actions, have created concerns across the world. He mounted a powerful military assault across Ukraine. While India had rightly supported earlier proposals for working out a negotiated settlement to tensions in Ukraine, it has not supported any change in the existing borders of Ukraine. India and others across the globe could hardly support a Russian military takeover or ‘salami slicing’ of Ukraine.

Not surprisingly, Biden has now sought to mobilise the support of all his NATO, European and Asian allies to mount pressure on Russia. The most damaging sanctions that Biden has proposed include closing a vast range of international banking facilities to Moscow. These sanctions are now being put in place. The US-based Bloomberg, however, noted that within 24 hours of Putin signing the decree, recognising two breakaway Ukrainian territories, the US and UK hurriedly bought 3.5 million barrels of Russian oil, refined oil products, and gold, apart from large amounts of Russian natural gas, aluminium, titanium and coal, valued at an estimated $700 million. These Russian exports reportedly continue even today. Nevertheless, the sanctions are set to be strengthened. This has inevitably had a serious impact globally.

The most damaging economic sanctions include measures for blocking Moscow’s ability to use the ‘SWIFT’ banking system. This will seriously affect Russia’s ability to operate smoothly in global markets. There will also be restrictions that will hinder and even prevent Russia’s Central Bank from using its resources effectively in its global transactions. These are, however, measures that Russian banking authorities would have expected. The Russians are not ready to end military operations in Ukraine, which had disingenuously suggested talks to restore normalcy to be held in Warsaw. Russia rejected this proposal. One round of talks has since been held at the Belarus border.

Resort to continuing repression in Ukraine can, however, only lead Russia and its people to prolonged suffering, bitterness, disunity and disrepute. One hopes that all concerned in Russia and Ukraine would bear in mind that it is their responsibility for restoring peace in their neighbourhood. France and Germany could play an important role in restoring a measure of peace. Jingoism and gloating by the US and others over Russia’s problems will have disastrous consequences. Russia has a stockpile of 6,400 nuclear weapons and a strategic arsenal of 1,600 warheads. Moscow has made no secret of its readiness to respond strongly, if provoked.

A global political and diplomatic effort is crucial to ensure that things do not get further out of hand in Ukraine. Biden and Putin had agreed in a statesmen-like manner, when they met in Geneva that: ‘A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.’ Both powers will, hopefully, not allow these tensions to get out of hand. Sanctions imposed by the US, together with its allies will also pose hurdles for India’s trade and economic ties with Russia. These hurdles can be suitably overcome. Putin’s actions are, however, leading to new global tensions, at a time when the world is still reeling, under the impact of the deadly pandemic. But, Putin appears averse to pulling back just now, evidently confident of the brute power of his nuclear arsenal.

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#ukraine crisis #vladimir putin