Rethinking weather services

THE summer this year has been giving mixed signals. After a brief warm spell and heatwave conditions for a few days, northwest India has experienced an unusually cool start to May. The day temperature at some places has been lower than at night due to moderate to heavy rainfall. There has also been snowfall in the upper regions of Uttarakhand and the Kashmir valley. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its monthly forecast, has predicted spells of rain that may keep the region almost free of severe heat throughout the month. In contrast, the northeast and large swathes of east India are witnessing higher temperatures and that trend may continue. All these trends, along with the developing factors such as El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole, have caused anxiety about the onset of monsoon and its likely course between June and September.

Timely warnings about extreme weather events and appropriate preventive action can save lives.

In a vast and climatically diverse country such as India, weather forecasting assumes special importance for the lives and livelihoods of people. Accurate forecasts can help people plan their activities accordingly. Timely warnings about extreme weather events and appropriate preventive action can also save lives. The recent death of 14 persons due to a heatstroke at a rally addressed by Home Minister Amit Shah in Maharashtra is a grim reminder of the adverse impact of weather.

One can argue that the IMD had not predicted a heatwave for the region where the incident occurred. But the impact of heat is not just due to the high temperature but a result of several associated factors such as relative humidity, wind speed and tolerance level of people. Even though the maximum temperature was below the threshold of what is defined as a heatwave, the heat index of the place may have been higher, resulting in the death or illness of people attending the rally. There is a difference between recorded or observed temperature and how humans feel it. Heat index and chill factor (for winters) are supposed to reflect this. Meteorologists call it the ‘feels like’ factor. The temperature may be, say 35°C, but it may feel like 40°C at a given place due to other factors such as humidity, direct sunshine, wind speed etc.

Therefore, many Met agencies give ‘feels like’ temperatures, along with the likely minimum and maximum in their forecasts. This week, the IMD has launched the heat index forecast on an experimental basis. It is a work in progress as the heat index needs to take into account social and cultural factors as well as physiological aspects, such as the level of acclimatisation of the people. The experimental heat index is primarily based on meteorological data. Hopefully, the agency will also provide the ‘chill factor’, at least for the regions that experience cold waves during the winter.

From the time when the Met office used to be the subject of cartoons in newspapers and popular jokes to now, the IMD has traversed a long journey. For many decades, daily weather bulletins disseminated through All India Radio and news agencies were the only source of weather information for the public. Now, the IMD has a diversified set of weather updates, besides special forecasts like airport runway visibility forecast, highway forecast, Char Dham yatra forecast etc. In addition to daily and five-day forecasts, IMD has introduced nowcasting — forecast for the next three hours — for all the districts in the country. It is useful for local warnings about heavy rainfall, thunderstorms etc., and is based on observed data from the nationwide radar network as well as satellite imagery. The warnings are conveyed through colour-coded symbols to indicate the severity of the weather phenomena expected.

Weather information is of little use if it is not disseminated widely, and in time, to the public as well as government agencies. In this age of hyper-connectivity, people want instant weather updates and don’t wait for the newspaper the next morning or the 9 pm news bulletins. Social media platforms have become a favourite of Met offices the world over. All IMD offices now use Twitter, Facebook and YouTube to disseminate forecasts and colour-coded warnings regularly. The information package includes an animation of satellite imageries and a visual representation of maximum and minimum temperatures in major cities. The IMD has mobile apps too for smartphone users. For those who lack access to smartphones and the Internet, weather information is relayed through text messages. Several million people across the country use this service.

However, there are gaps in weather information dissemination. To be useful to the end user, be it a city dweller or a farmer, weather updates should be actionable. The addition of a ‘feels like’ factor and colour-coded warnings, for instance, is a good move in this direction. The use of jargon should be avoided and the information needs to be more granular, given the likely differences within a district or a metropolitan area.

People also need to know about the likely impact of weather events being predicted. If the forecast mentions the likelihood of heavy rainfall, will it be so heavy that it can cause local flooding? Or if the temperature is predicted to be above normal, can it lead to an adverse health impact? For this, the IMD will have to coordinate with relevant agencies and develop in-house capabilities. With recent additions to its computing power, a strong communication backbone and research on weather modelling, the agency generates a huge amount of data and information for its forecasts. It needs to develop appropriate information products for different segments of users, including paid weather and climate services.

The idea of a dedicated weather channel has been around for a long time. The changing media landscape may have made it unattractive, but the IMD can certainly build a cadre of professional meteorologist-broadcasters who can present the weather on various digital platforms. In the face of the menace of fake news and unscientific warnings issued by private weather companies, the Met office needs to play a proactive role.