Reversing climate change

Dinesh C Sharma

Science Commentator

EVERY new report of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) paints a picture grimmer than the previous one. The timeline for reaching the temperature thresholds keeps getting shorter and shorter. From half a century or more, we are now talking of a decade or two for catastrophic impacts of climate change to unfold. The window of opportunity available for policymakers and governments to act gets narrower with every new report. Climate science gets more definitive and scientists are surer of the temperature changes based on datasets from all over the world. Being products of the UN process, every word in these reports is vetted by all member states, leaving no room for quibbling over data or analysis. The report is a synthesis of over 14,000 peer-reviewed scientific studies.

While scientists are unanimous about warming and its present and future impacts, policymakers and governments are not on one platform for remedial action.

The new IPCC report released this week is unequivocal in pointing out that the planet is warming faster than earlier thought, and that human influence is responsible for warming the climate system consisting of the atmosphere, oceans and land. The scale of warming and changes in the climate system in recent decades is far greater than the changes that occurred over thousands of years. The global surface temperature is projected upwards under all emission scenarios, at least till the mid-century. The warming is being experienced in all regions of the globe, but with variations. One of the biggest impacts of climate change is the intensification of the water cycle and its manifestations such as intense rainfall, flooding, and also intense droughts in several countries. More changes to monsoon precipitation are expected in future. Warming oceans mean more marine heatwaves, ocean acidification and reduced oxygen levels in ocean ecosystems. Sea level rise in coastal areas and storm surges during tropical cyclones — whose frequency, duration and intensity are going up — would lead to inundation in coastal areas and erosion of the coasts. The report has warned that extreme sea level events could occur every year instead of just being once in a century occurrence like in the past.

If this is the present and emerging scenario and scientists have issued a grave warning, all the countries must be worried and start taking action. Unfortunately, this does not happen. Like all previous reports, the latest one will form a key input for climate negotiations. The next round of climate talks is scheduled at Glasgow in November. While scientists are unanimous about warming and its present and future impacts, policymakers and governments are not on one platform for remedial action. The single-most key climate action needed to arrest unbridled warming is deep and immediate cuts in the emission of greenhouse gases. This needs a transition from polluting sources of energy such as coal to low- or zero-carbon options like wind and solar. The energy transition is the key but also the most contentious because it is closely linked with the traditional models of development and economic growth. It also raises questions of equity and climate justice. Developing countries contend that industrialised countries responsible for past emissions should take the deepest cuts now and help others in transition to low-carbon pathways.

The long-term goal set under the Paris Agreement talked about achieving a balance between ‘human-induced emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century, based on equity, and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty.’ Instead of emphasising deep cuts in emissions, it talked about a balance between emission reduction and measures such as forestation that help carbon removal. This ambiguity, combined with the approach of letting countries set their targets, has led to a new idea of achieving ‘net-zero emissions.’ Many emitters, including China and the US, have announced their own ‘net-zero emission’ targets that include reduction in emissions and measures for carbon removal. It could also lead to the offset system in which the rich countries paid for emission reduction countries or invested in forestation elsewhere. This brings us back to the failed idea of ‘clean development mechanism’ and carbon credits, etc., that were designed to help rich countries avoid emission reduction. ‘Net zero’ does not mean real zero emissions. It is a clever carbon accounting system that most likely will put more pressure on land for forestation and other carbon sink schemes. For any meaningful and real emission cuts, energy transition is necessary. It has started but is going to be a long tough road ahead.

Hopefully, climate diplomats will take a call on the scientific findings and possible mitigation measures needed to halt and reverse warming trends, adaptation is also necessary. The impacts of warming are already amplified by extreme weather events in India and elsewhere. The changing patterns of the summer monsoon have begun to impact the farming and livelihoods of millions of farmers. Sea level rise and storm surges are affecting communities in coastal areas. In the hills, a change in the number of cold days and precipitation is hitting cropping systems. All these impacts are real and already unfolding. We can’t wait for global climate negotiations to reach a point of agreement on emission reduction. Action on the adaptation front is needed urgently. This is where Indian policymakers should wake up. The ‘action’ in national and state action plans is missing. The change in nomenclature of the Ministry of Environment and Forests by adding ‘climate change’ had only been cosmetic.

Climate change is a global phenomenon but its impacts are local and it needs action at the local level. The temperature rise is not just a matter of little discomfort that the rich can overcome by adjusting the thermostat of air-conditioners. The planet has no magic switch that can provide us relief quickly. The world needs sustained, committed and honest action. There are no shortcuts to undo climate change.

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