There has been a consistent pattern of terrorist attacks in the wake of positive developments in Jammu and Kashmir or in India-Pakistan relations. There are powerful constituencies in Pakistan which consider even limited improvements in India-Pakistan relations as threatening to their entrenched interests. By the same token, for them any prospect of a return to even limited peace and political normalcy in the state — now a UT — must be nipped in the bud. The Kargil intrusion followed the then PM Vajpayee’s bus journey to Lahore in February 1999. PM Modi’s dramatic stopover in Lahore on December 25, 2015, to meet Pakistani PM Nawaz Sharif was followed within days by the terrorist attack on the Air Force base at Pathankot on January 2, 2016. The launch of the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service in 2005 was greeted by setting on fire a government tourist office sheltering bus passengers and there were blasts on the route. So the drone attack on the Jammu Air Force station in the early hours of June 27 should not come as a surprise. It happened just a few days after the surprise and well-publicised meeting on June 24 between the PM and leaders of the erstwhile much-derided Gupkar group of mostly mainstream parties of J&K. This follows the revival of the ceasefire between India and Pakistan along the LoC since February 25, 2021, which has, against expectations, been scrupulously observed by both sides. Back channel talks have been reportedly held between the National Security Advisers of the two countries and the UAE has claimed that it has played an intermediary role. The attack puts the Indian Government in a difficult position. If it undertakes some retaliatory action against Pakistan, then the promising developments in relations would be stalled and India-Pakistan tensions will be heightened. This will inevitably impact on political developments in the state. Whatever limited gains may have been anticipated from the June 24 meeting would likely diminish. If it does not retaliate, that, too, will have consequences because it will encourage more such attacks, perhaps of even greater lethality. Pakistan will deny involvement. But even if the drones were launched from inside Indian territory, there can be little doubt that the attacks have been inspired by elements within Pakistan. We have to proceed on that assumption.
The use of drones to attack military or civilian targets introduces a dangerous new dimension to the security threats confronting India. This in any case requires an urgent and comprehensive assessment and a counter-strategy. This will be relevant not only for the India-Pakistan theatre, but also the India-China theatre. China has advanced drone technologies and production capacities. Pakistan has access to these as an ally and will see them as adding another asymmetrical capability to threaten India.
A two-front war, in which India has to confront both Chinese and Pakistan forces simultaneously, is no longer just a possibility to guard against. It is becoming an operational reality. China and Pakistan have been conducting joint military exercises for years but recently they held their first-ever joint air exercises from airfields in Tibet. The message to India could not be more clear and direct. In a two-front war scenario, it is J&K which would be front and centre. It constitutes territory in contention with both China and Pakistan. Our security planners need to appreciate this new reality and its ominous implications.
The limited détente with Pakistan and the reaching out to the mainstream political parties in J&K have been triggered by two broad developments. Internally in the state, the sidelining and even demonising of the mainstream parties and leaders and the nurturing of a new political leadership aligned to the BJP, has failed. The population in the Valley is disaffected and sullen and the promise of development and jobs has been mostly belied. On the other hand, the scrutiny of the Modi government’s use of coercive instruments to enforce peace and stability in the troubled region has been under greater and adverse international scrutiny. The Biden administration’s emphasis on upholding democratic values and human rights in its external relations has put the Indian Government under mounting political pressure. Both the revival of ceasefire at the LoC and the attempt to bring about a degree of political normalcy in the Valley may be seen as a deflecting response to these external pressures.
Closer home, the very real prospect of Afghanistan falling under unchallenged Taliban rule, complicates India’s geopolitical dilemma. We should be under no illusion that reaching out to the Taliban, as we appear to be doing, will diminish the heightened security threat they represent to Indian interests. Over the past two decades and more, Pakistan has been willing to pay the price of relative international isolation and even pariah status, economic hardship and internal security challenges, to keep its eyes fixed on the prize of Afghanistan as its client state under the Taliban. And Afghanistan has value for Pakistan, mainly in the context of its relations with India. Once the Americans leave and the Taliban establish their rule over the whole of Afghanistan, expect India to be sidelined in the country and its immense investment there to be diminished in value. We have already closed our consulates in Jalalabad and Herat. Kandahar may follow. Pakistan will use Afghanistan to recreate jihadi bases to target India with convenient deniability. To think that engagement with the Taliban will prevent Pakistan from using it for its nefarious purposes against India would be naïve.
During the earlier round of Taliban rule in Kabul, India’s policy was to keep that regime destabilised by supporting the Northern Alliance and Ahmad Shah Masood in the Panjshir Valley. The Russians and Iranians worked in coordination with us. This time round, potential partners in undertaking such a policy are not visible.
Our options are limited and the geopolitical environment is becoming more adversarial. Tactical moves such as the LoC ceasefire and relaxation of political tensions in J&K may be useful. They do not add up to an effective long-term strategy to address the unprecedented, multiple and serious security challenges India is facing. The drone attack in Jammu is a wake-up call.
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