Stakes rising for the West in Nepal politics

Manjeev singh Puri

Former Ambassador to Nepal

NEPAL’s recent General Election threw up a divided House of Representatives, with the pre-poll alliance of the ruling Nepali Congress led by the then Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-MC) led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ falling just short of 138 seats, the halfway mark in the 275-member House. The Nepali Congress did emerge as the largest party with 89 seats, a gain of 26 from its tally in the previous House, but the Maoists got only 32.

Yet, despite indications that the coalition would form the government with the support of smaller parties, a last-minute political twist that reflects the hallmark of Nepali politics of no permanent friends or enemies, Prachanda was sworn in as the PM. This was not with the support of the Nepali Congress but that of the Communist Party of Nepal (UML) of former PM KP Sharma Oli, who had, with alacrity, reached out to him, no matter their major fallout in 2021. Oli had extended his hand to others too, including those of other political persuasions. Indeed, he also reached out to Deuba.

The Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML), which in 2017 was the largest party in Parliament, had come second this time with 78 MPs. The UML and the Maoists together didn’t add up to 138, but found common ground for power-sharing with some smaller parties that did remarkably well in the elections.

Interestingly, unlike the UML and the Maoists, the two most-important smaller parties supporting the coalition have no truck with communism or even socialist ideology. One is the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), a pro-monarchy and Hindu rashtra party, which was nearly wiped out in 2017 but secured 14 seats this time. The RPP had opportunistically collaborated with Oli in the past and this appeared the case this time too.

With the UML, it finds political solace for its agenda in Oli’s positive articulations of Nepal as a Hindu rashtra and suggestion of resurrection of the monarchy as a ‘cultural king’. For Prachanda, who has been a lifelong anti-monarchist, the expediency of having RPP on his bandwagon is bound to require some compromise like honouring the contributions of the monarchy to modern Nepal, but all this is par for the course to power in Nepal.

The other is the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), a brand-new outfit that has 20 MPs, making it the fourth largest party in the House. The RSP is hugely supported by young people and overseas Nepalis and espouses a rights-based agenda. Its leader, Rabi Lamichhane, who has been appointed Deputy PM, was a US citizen and is currently facing a case in the Nepal Supreme Court regarding his ‘reclaimed’ Nepali citizenship.

While the Indian hand and the Chinese card have always been part of the Nepali polity, the West is now certainly manifested in Nepali politics and the rise of the RSP is clearly an indication of the same.

The UML has had an old and positive relationship with the large western-supported NGO community in Nepal, no matter its communist ideology. How Prachanda, who the NGOs hold responsible for atrocities committed by the Maoists, will be squared for political support by a rights-oriented political force remains to be seen.

The RSP support to the Prachanda-Oli alliance appears to indicate that the West is willing to now look beyond Deuba, who, among the old guard, was seen as pro-West but now faces challenges within his party. Indeed, he was challenged for leadership of the Nepali Congress’s parliamentary party by Gagan Thapa, a former minister seen as a leader of the young generation. Deuba defeated Thapa, but not without a fight.

Thapa is also perceived as a pro-West politician. His rise furthermore raises several issues internal to the Nepali Congress, including the future role for Deuba’s spouse Arzu Rana, who has become a political heavyweight in her own right. Interestingly, even though the RSP won heavily in the Kathmandu area, it didn’t put up a candidate against Thapa, who also contested from a Kathmandu constituency.

The RSP and RPP support to the UML-Maoists combination brings to fore the question of how those with a western lean came together with those with a communist bent. Did this happen only for power and the ever willingness of the Nepali politics to bend to lure? Or was it just the obduracy in the Nepali Congress and the unwillingness of Deuba and his closest confidants to let go a chance at the top slot and accept that an in-house generational change was needed.

The Chinese interest in communist unity in Nepal is well known and there should be no doubt about their role in getting Prachanda and Oli together, even if the self-interest for power of the two helped the cause. In so far as India, while its abilities to interact and do so effectively with any government in Nepal will remain, for many, rightly, there is a feeling that a ‘hands-off’ policy not only means not being a player but provides a segue for others.

Nepal’s Constitution does not allow a vote of no confidence to be moved for two years. But it requires the PM to obtain a fresh vote of confidence in case of a change in the ruling coalition. Given the fragility inherent in the present coalition, does this mean a possible opening in the near future for Deuba? He has been the Prime Minister five times, though almost always because of political happenings and not by leading his party to an election victory. ‘Seven times top slot’ for him is said to be the astrological prediction.

The next stage is the election of the President. Constitutionally a titular Head of State, experience over the past years in Nepal has shown up the President as a key player in the power play in Kathmandu. Indeed, even the most recent case of Prachanda being chosen without resorting to the constitutional provision for calling the leader of the largest party to try and form a government indicates the extent of ‘discretion’. A friendly occupant of the highest office is critically useful when Parliament is divided, and this fact is certainly uppermost in Oli’s calculations. But would this necessarily be someone of his choosing?

Prachanda won the trust vote on January 10, getting 268 of the total 270 lawmakers present. Interestingly, even though he had the numbers, he still sought and obtained Deuba’s support. Obviously, he is aware that just as he didn’t agree to play second fiddle to Deuba, he also can’t let Oli call the shots in the new government. A President, if possible, not aligned to his alliance partner would help.

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