Strife-torn Syria at a crossroads

Why does Syria matter? Like India, it is at the crossroads of major world religions, empires and economic and mercantile networks. Its enduring proclivity to engender and synthesise diverse, and often contradictory, streams of culture, religion and politics makes it, like India, a pivotal state in its region.

Ahmed al-Sharaa, leader of the terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the country’s interim President, said as much while urging his people to abjure the recent sectarian strife in the Mediterranean provinces of Latakia and Tartous that pitted the Syrian army against Bashar Assad’s Alawite loyalists and led to a high number of killings and other abhorrent crimes. The attack on the Alawites was not long in coming, given the perception that they had ruled the roost under the Assad family.

In the 14th year of the inconclusive insurgency, the future of Syria has acquired a chimerical quality. While Assad won 90 per cent of his country with Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah military assistance, diverse insurgent groups, including the HTS, backed by neighbouring Turkey, stayed on in the northwest provinces of Idlib & Afrin, long-standing bastions of opposition to the regime. In January 2020, the HTS had an estimated 12,000 to 15,000 fighters in Idlib and surrounding areas.

In the early hours of December 8, 2024, the Assad dynasty’s more than a half century of brutal rule in Syria came to an end. In a week-long blitzkrieg, the HTS captured the entire country, including Damascus, the capital. It was an incredible feat of military prowess and timing, with Israel having made it impossible for both the Hezbollah and Iran to support Assad, and with Russia bogged down in Ukraine. The inability, ineptitude and lack of commitment of the Syrian army also aided the HTS in its military victory.

Syria’s domestic political order changed overnight. For the first time since the minority Alawite rule, the majority Sunnis attained political power. The US invasion of Iraq in March 2003 achieved a similar result when, with the deposition of minority Sunni leader Saddam Hussein, its long-suppressed majority Shia population took political power.

Syria’s geopolitical identity has also changed; it is no longer a part of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ or Russia’s long-lasting ally in the Arab world. The HTS, formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda and on the UN Security Council’s terrorist list, has since its elevation to power tried hard to live down its past connections and project a moderate image. After the recent violence, al-Sharaa said the country “has to preserve its national unity and domestic peace, we can live together.” The reason for this statement is clear.

Syria has nurtured three great religions — Judaism, Christianity and Islam — making it the cradle of religious plurality. Sunni Muslims make up 74 per cent of its population, providing the central symbolic and cultural orientation. While 90 per cent of the Syrians adhere to an Arab identity, the country has a multitude of Islamic and non-Islamic minorities, including the Alawites and other Shias, Druze, Ismailis, Christians, Kurds, Armenians, Circassians and Turkoman, that demonstrates Syria’s unique character in the region.

The HTS leadership has been sending out signals about the transition and establishment of the future constitution of the country, stating that it plans to build an inclusive and tolerant society; this has allayed the concerns of many Syrians and international observers. Al-Sharaa and many senior HTS leaders have repeatedly stated that there is no scope for any form of federalism, decentralisation or local autonomy. After years of conflict and internal division, the HTS favours centralism as a means to encourage national unity. The fact that Syrian refugees abroad are returning is a good sign. Yet there is a view that a centralised state could cause more division and conflict.

Al-Sharaa has ruled out a ‘presidential election’ for a few years, taking it for granted that the country would have a presidential system rather than a parliamentary one. The other substantive issue relates to the Assads maintaining a divorce between religion and the state. HTS leaders have made statements that Syria’s population is essentially Muslim and therefore Sharia law should govern.

The HTS has also ruled out the involvement of the UN and the international community in the constitutional process. Most Syrians are unenthusiastic about any UN-led process, given their belief that it played a dubious role in trying to bring peace to Syria, keeping Assad in place. While the HTS has stated that a permanent constitution will take years to negotiate, the conclusion on February 25, 2025, of Syria’s National Dialogue, was a first step to ascertain the views of Syria’s people. The body stated that the draft constitution should achieve a balance between authorities, establish justice, freedom and equality, and lay the foundation for a state of law and institutions. The closing statement also called for supporting the role of women in all fields and rejected discrimination based on race, religion or sect. It also rejected calls for ethnic or religious quotas in government — reiterating the stand taken by al-Sharaa and other ministers.

The rising tide of foreign leaders visiting Damascus demonstrates the tremendous interest of major international and regional powers in Syria’s future. These include foreign ministers and officials from France, Germany, Italy, Russia, the EU, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and the UAE.

Qatar, a long-time supporter of Syria’s opposition, is expected to continue providing financial and other assistance to the country. During al-Sharra’s visit to Riyadh, the Saudis extended similar aid.

Hadja Lahbib, the EU Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Crisis Management, during her visit on January 24, 2025, announced a humanitarian assistance package of 235 million euros and discussed lifting of sanctions to build an inclusive Syria.

The Russian delegation included Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and Russia’s special envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev. Syria has not cut all ties with Russia, where Assad is in exile. Russian troops and assets remain in Syria, but they have all been relocated to the Hmeimim airbase. A Palestinian Authority delegation led by Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa met al-Sharaa in Syria.

Notwithstanding these positive developments, Israel was quick to destroy Syrian armed forces’ air defence and missile capabilities in a series of preemptive strikes in December 2024. It has also occupied the entire Golan and Mount Hermon, stating that it will keep them. The National Dialogue called for the “immediate and unconditional withdrawal” of Israeli forces from Syria and rejected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s threat that his country would not allow Syrian military forces to be present in southern Syria.

Türkiye, too, has been swift in increasing its attacks against Kurdish forces in northern Syria and in sending officials to Damascus to drive home its priorities.

These developments show the heightened interest, both benign and malign, of major and regional powers, all of whom had earlier been involved in Syria, to help both in rebuilding the country after the long civil war and lay down their ideas for an inclusive, democratic and tolerant government. For the present, Al-Sharaa is making the right noises. Much will depend on his walking the talk.