The Afghanistan quandary

G Parthasarathy

Chancellor, Jammu Central University & former High Commissioner to Pakistan

The Buddhas of Bamiyan were amongst the most classical monuments, embodying the beauty and majesty of the Great Silk Route, linking India and Central Asia through the ages. The two statues were of Vairocana Buddha and Gautama Buddha. They were carved into the side of a cliff. It was through this route that Chinese traveller Hiuen Tsang visited India during the rule of emperor Harshvardhan. The Buddhas of Bamiyan were also a site for pilgrimage for Buddhists. The statues were surrounded by numerous caves, decorated with paintings. These historical works were considered as an artistic synthesis of Gupta and Buddhist art which originated in India. It was these precious historical monuments, whose destruction was ordered by Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar in 2001. There are indications that the destruction was backed by his guest and friend, Osama bin Laden.

It is in this context that one has to analyse the recent political developments in Afghanistan. August 31 was determined by the Biden administration for completing the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. The final departure was marked by bomb explosions, triggered by the Islamic State of Khorasan, which is made up of jihadis from Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Arab world. The present plans of the Islamic State, of jihad across the Islamic world, included the attack on the Kabul airport, on the date set for full American withdrawal. Chaos prevailed, as dozens died on that day. In the days preceding these developments, the Taliban routed the American trained, armed and equipped Afghan army, which fled from the battlefield. Thousands of deadly American weapons, armoured vehicles and ammunition fell into the hands of the Taliban. What accompanied these events was even more dramatic and bizarre.

The US withdrawal was accompanied by the appointment of a new Taliban-led government, headed by Mohammed Hassan Akhund as PM. Strangely, nobody has yet seen the supreme commander of the Taliban armed forces, Hibatullah Akhundzada. According to reports, he is still in Kandahar, the spiritual capital of the Taliban, and indeed, of most Pashtuns. This is because the founder of modern Afghanistan, Amir Ahmad Shah Durrani, brought back a shawl purported to have been worn by the Prophet, to Kandahar, as a gift from the ruler of Bukhara during the 18th century. Mullah Omar established his legitimacy, as the founder of the Taliban, by appearing publicly with the shawl. The new Taliban government was initially headed by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, who had been jailed in Pakistan for eight years at American behest. Baradar and some members of his team had been reasonably well-disposed towards India.

The situation changed dramatically in Afghanistan, immediately after the visit by the ISI chief, Lt Gen Faiz Hameed, to Kabul, when Baradar was still the de facto chief of the Taliban government. What followed immediately was the appointment of Mohammad Hassan Akhund as acting PM. Like Baradar, he too was close to Mullah Omar. But, he also has a record of being a hard-core fundamentalist. He had supervised the destruction of the Bamiyan Buddhas, and has been declared an international terrorist by the UNSC. He will now, as PM, also be handling military affairs. The real threat to India’s national security, however, comes from the appointment of the head of the Haqqani Network, Sirajuddin Haqqani, as the interior (home) minister. Haqqani is on the Most Wanted List of the FBI, with a $5 million reward. He has close ties with Pakistan-based terrorist groups like the LeT and the JeM.

The Haqqani Network and its members were responsible for the attacks on India’s embassy and consulates across Afghanistan. Moreover, Haqqani now has the power to appoint governors in areas along the Durand Line, enabling him to arrange for jihadis trained in Afghanistan to be infiltrated into J&K. One of the results of the shocking mass surrender of the Afghan army was that the huge cache of arms, explosives and ammunition the Americans had provided to the Afghan army are now in the hands of the Taliban. One should not be surprised if the summer of 2022 is marked by confrontations with jihadis trained by Haqqani’s supporters and smuggled into J&K through new routes.

Russia has taken objection to and dealt with some crude Pakistani proposals which appear designed to show the world that the only route to Afghanistan lies through Pakistan. India has, however, used other routes to Afghanistan, through Iran and Central Asian countries like Tajikistan, which have all taken strong exception to such Pakistani initiatives, aimed at making Rawalpindi the epicentre of access to Afghanistan. The external intelligence chiefs of Russia, the US and UK recently visited New Delhi for discussions on Afghanistan. While one can predict the reactions of Russia and the US, one wonders what the British, who drew up the infamous Durand Line separating Afghanistan from the subcontinent, are up to. We, however, have a friendly Conservative Party government now calling the shots in London.

India should not be in a hurry to re-establish a large diplomatic presence in Kabul. We should not forget that India remained the home of some very distinguished personalities from Afghanistan throughout the first spell of Taliban rule. The Taliban have openly displayed their religious bigotry. By all accounts, the downslide in Afghanistan’s economy is continuing. It is inevitable that in the not too distant future, the Taliban will face problems of serious shortages of wheat and other essential items, which India can best supply. India can also use the Chabahar Port in Iran and the territories of other Central Asian countries, like Tajikistan, for access to Afghanistan.

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