The aftermath of pandemic

Gurbachan Jagat

WHEN historians record the past two years, they will note that in the first half of the 21st century, a pandemic hit the world with colossal human casualties and economic disaster. They will note how certain nation-states fought it scientifically, with a coordinated effort of their health and social services, police, central banks, and other government departments, thereby mitigating (although they too suffered losses) the economic, political and social impact of the pandemic. Others with poor infrastructure and political will suffered untold devastation in direct human cost and economic misery. A quick reflection on the ‘Plague’ (Black Death as it was known) which hit Europe in the early 14th century shows that besides the massive death toll, the resultant impact on social, religious, economic aspects and politics was huge. For example, the Hundred Years’ War between England and France ran concurrently during this period. The peasant revolts in England and France of the time were the beginning of the end of feudal system. The impact of the heavy death toll led to women getting more importance and also led to the empowerment of the serfs, as dwindling populations no longer gave lords unlimited access to manpower. Economically, a recession ensued which was accompanied by high inflation as crops were lost and fields left uncultivated. What exact form the aftermath of the current pandemic takes remains to be seen. Mercifully, so far, the death toll has not been in the same category as the ‘Plague’. However, the global economy today is a complex machine — integrated across nations with complex supply chains and inter-dependencies. These have all suffered some form of disruption and the resultant reaction from nations has been that of increased self-reliance and protectionism. A common theme of high inflation can be seen across the board, and we all know how disruptive that can be. The lockdowns have varied in severity across nations and the resultant impact on mental health and the social fabric is gradually emerging.

We have been hit successively by fresh waves of Covid and they have impacted nearly all aspects of our lives. We still don’t know if we have seen the last of it or new strains and mutations will manifest themselves in the future. Various medical experts, research organisations, pharmaceutical companies and governments continue to feed on the insecurity of people with a plethora of forecasts. We have all but forgotten how it originated — in China or USA, or was it a thunderbolt hurled by the gods in their anger at us? Government laboratories, research organisations and universities put in their best to urgently develop the vaccines to save mankind from the dreaded disease. The pharma industy was part of this tremendous effort and rose to the occasion (also gaining tremendously subsequently). Countries raced against each other to get hold of the maximum number of vaccines and in this race, the developed world as usual got the better of the others.

What has been the impact of these two years of devastating lockdowns, curfews, closed schools and colleges, closed or inaccessible courts, closed hospitality and entertainment places, etc? For the first few months, the landscape looked like a vast wasteland and every home a fortress and every human being an island unto himself. The isolation was complete, no calling on anyone, no parties (except at 10 Downing Street), no shopping, no venturing out. The only means of contact was a cell phone and the only recreation was reading or television. There was stillness in the air, suspense in the household and despair the ruling emotion. The isolation created its own psychological problems in the hours of loneliness and gave birth to morbid, overheated imaginations. Every scratch in the throat, every cough, slight fever and off you went imagining all kinds of grim possibilities. The impact was felt by all but most of all by the aged and the students. As it is, old age is the embodiment of loneliness, but disease and isolation make these things worse. The young schoolchildren locked up at home for two years, bereft of the company of their peers and stuck in front of computers for online studies — what is it going to take to fill the gap of these last two years? How is their psychological balance going to be affected in the long run? Will they ever fully recover, and will online education be enough to compensate for the loss of the physical interactive classroom?

However, what about those millions of children who could not afford online education and had no computer or smartphone at home; sometimes three or four children were sharing one phone or climbing to a higher elevation to get a signal. Rather than let them sit idle, some of the poor parents drafted them into the labour market — where will they get the childhood back or the education? At least two batches of poor students have succumbed to this. No amount of reservation, no amount of free dal and rice, no amount of free bicycles, etc, will ever be able to replace the lost education. It is education and good health that are the magic words to fight poverty. One hoped against hope that a nationwide effective health and education infrastructure would be the focus, post this event. The latest budget has put paid to this hope as there are no additional provisions or funds for the kind of infrastructure and drive needed. The same old decrepit dispensaries and government hospitals will continue. Unemployment has always been a challenge with our population and with the mishandling of the pandemic, the number of people out of jobs is only increasing. Even the annual migration of labourers is on the decrease because unemployment is everywhere, plus the migrants still remember the hammer that descended upon them after the first lockdown. Migrants became the nowhere people, thrown out of jobs in the metros and unwanted in the states; the highways became their home till they were finally accepted back in their villages. The farms and industry have no new jobs to accommodate these numbers.

In the meantime, in some states, they will get some money, food and liquor for a short time because of the elections taking place. The politicians do not talk of health or employment, they are magicians with bags of tricks and freebies which they dole out and grab the votes of the gullible. There is no talk or a promise of setting up a ‘National Commission’ to go into the total failure of the Central and state governments to meet this emergency, especially during the second phase of Delta when there had been enough of a warning. No sir, we were busy backslapping each other for being the best in the world and then men began to fall like flies in large numbers. There was no post-mortem of those who died, will there be no post-mortem of the role of the state? There can be remedies if we accept that there is a problem, but we are in a denial mode.

Developing countries have been on the move, they have anticipated likely tremors in the economy and have taken on or are taking remedial measures. They printed money when that was needed and now, they are taking measures to control inflation. Their unemployment figures are lower than before, the political setups and the central banks are ready with a slew of measures to take corrective measures to shore up their economies. What about us? What is the plan… will someone please share it? A judge of the Punjab and Haryana High Court recently asserted, “We are the fifth or the sixth largest economy in the world and, therefore, the excuse of us not being as advanced as other countries is no longer available to us…”

Is it too much to ask that the governments, both at the state and Centre, commanding vast financial and human resources of the sixth largest economy, come up with a ‘Marshall plan’ with a defined timeline to sort out this bane of poverty and human misery? Poverty is manmade because the extreme disparity between the super-rich and the poor in our country has been allowed to happen… it is a systemic failure of governance both past and present and it is shameful. High time the leadership corrected course and this pyramid of disparity.

Today, we are increasingly threatened at our borders by hostile neighbours. Old alliances look increasingly fragile and new ones distant. The multitudes of unemployed youth are a breeding ground for internal conflict as they are easily manipulated by extremist elements. We need to channel, train, and deploy this human resource for the benefit of the nation and not let it become a part of the problem. We need to allow our entrepreneurs to flourish, we need to support our farmers, thereby ensuring that the rural economy is strong. We need to provide for universal healthcare and education. The alternative is too painful to imagine — all you have to do is study the changing political map of our geographic region over the past 300 years to refresh our collective memories on what failure would look like.

— The writer is ex-chairman of UPSC, former Manipur Governor and served as J&K DGP

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