Modi’s Ukraine visit is the message
CHANTS of ‘Har, Har Modi’ and ‘Jai Shri Ram’ by overenthusiastic Indians in Kyiv on Friday may have somewhat marred Prime Minister Modi’s solemn visit to the garden in the Ukrainian capital where Mahatma Gandhi’s statue stands. Minutes later, though, the visible emotion that marked the meeting between Modi and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in front of a memorial that commemorates some of the fallen in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war was emblematic of the difficulty that India faces as it seeks to follow the middle path in this war.
Those in the West condemning India for refusing to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine need to look inwards.
On the face of it, it’s a no-brainer. Russia invaded Ukraine and must be roundly condemned — many Indians as well as Russians do. But look closely, and the context creeps in. Two years ago, Russia ostensibly went to war because it was insecure about NATO expanding to its frontiers.
Today, the war is less about victory or defeat between Russia and Ukraine, old partners and co-religionists, but much more about the ongoing argument between Russia and the US about Russia’s place in the world.
Everyone, especially the Ukrainians, knows that if it were not for the sophisticated weaponry being supplied by the US as well as large parts of the Western world to Zelenskyy’s men, the war would have been long over. But it isn’t and innocent people are continuing to die. Big power politics has taken over.
This is what this Ukraine war is about. Kaun banega duniya ka dada? The Americans clearly are unwilling to relinquish the top spot since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991-end. The Russians, still not as strong as the Americans today but strong enough, insist that there’s place for more than one. And as always, the Chinese watch and wait, eager and willing to play both sides — expanding trade with the US, even as they support Vladimir Putin’s anxious need to remain relevant both at home and abroad.
What of PM Modi and India? The answer to where India stands in this ongoing great game is complex. On the one hand, Modi told Zelenskyy in Kyiv, one of the most beautiful cities in the world, that India is ready to “play an active role in any effort towards peace”. Just before, the two had embraced each other warmly — a bit like the long hug into which Modi and Putin had collapsed six weeks ago in the latter’s dacha outside Moscow, which Zelenskyy had, openly, admitted to being upset about. Moments later, Modi placed his left hand on Zelenskyy’s left shoulder, like elder brothers often do with younger ones, and left it there for many moments while the photographers took many pictures.
Seems Modi was genuinely moved — it’s a good thing he was. India usually stands with the underdog — its defence of the Mukti Bahini in the former East Pakistan is a good example. But something else seems to be happening here. It seems as if Modi was quite persuaded that he should be seen to be standing with the Ukrainians – and therefore, the US. The Americans had made no bones about their displeasure with Modi’s visit to Moscow. The fact remains that India-US trade is still double that of between India and Russia, notwithstanding the jumped-up volumes due to the purchase of discounted oil by Delhi from Moscow in the last two years.
Those in the West condemning India for refusing to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine need to look inwards — and at the risk of being accused of whataboutery, we must ask, for example, if they are doing anything to prevent Israel from bombing hospitals or schools or UN compounds in Gaza.
Or if, any of these Western nations, most of them Permanent-Five members of the UN Security Council, raised one little finger of dissent when the US decided to bomb Iraq in 2003, in ostensible anticipation of Saddam Hussein using weapons of mass destruction. Wait, one second — Saddam didn’t have any.
Meanwhile, the visit of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to Washington DC, at the exact minute that Modi was in Ukraine, may be a coincidence — signing a defence pact or two with the Americans is a fine thing to do. But if it’s not a coincidence, then two other conclusions may be made.
First, that America is not comfortable about dissent, including by a fellow democracy. There would have been a lot of conversation between Delhi and Washington DC as well as several other Western capitals, seeking to persuade Modi to meet Zelenskyy in Kyiv.
And second, it’s clear that Ukraine is turning into Modi’s toughest foreign policy challenge so far. Remember, again, that Ukraine is just an alibi, rather a notable cat’s paw for the Americans. Nothing wrong with going to Kyiv — much better to check things out for yourself, no matter what Putin or Joe Biden have said. If the PM is able to manouevre between the cat’s claws, like many of his predecessors have ably done, he will succeed in re-establishing India’s unique place in the world.
Certainly, the world will be watching — like it watched the Modi visit to Moscow — for any telltale signs of shift. The West wants to win India over — despite its grime, it’s a nation of gritty people.
Moreover, unlike Biden, Rishi Sunak, Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz and some others, all of whom belong to the same side, India has always belonged to itself — its long and arduous walk between national interest and high morality is a challenge that it owes to itself. And so, for the moment, as the PM takes the train back from Kyiv, the inescapable conclusion is that Modi’s Ukraine visit itself is the message, both to India and the world.
