The inevitable peril of Palestine

Shyam Saran

Former Foreign Secretary and Honorary Fellow, CPR

THE Israel-Hamas war is in its third month. The indiscriminate and brutal killing of innocent Palestinian men, women and children by the Israel Defence Forces continues, the death toll being 17,000 and rising. Is this retribution enough for the 1,200 Israelis, mostly civilians, who were killed by Hamas terrorists on October 7 and for the 240-odd people they took hostage? The initial outpouring of sympathy for Israel has mostly evaporated in the wake of its relentless assault in Gaza, where 2.2 million people live in congested localities on a thin strip of land. The anti-Jewish Holocaust of World War II and the long history of anti-Semitism in Europe have always served as a shield for Israel against its detractors. Its killing of Palestinian civilians and open calls for virtual ethnic cleansing of Gaza by some members of its government are stripping away the moral cloak that it has worn so far. Israel is in danger of losing international legitimacy. And power without legitimacy becomes a wasting asset.

There is still a window of opportunity for Indian diplomacy to use its currently benign relations with all key actors in the region.

In 1922, in a world swept by incendiary nationalism, Rabindranath Tagore warned of the “dumb fury of the downtrodden (that) finds its awful support from the universal law of moral balance.” Tagore went on to describe how the quest for power eventually shackles the one who wields it without limit: “I thought that my invincible power would hold the world captive, leaving me in a freedom undisturbed. Thus, night and day, I worked at the chain with huge fires and cruel, hard strokes. When at last the work was done and the links were complete and unbreakable, I found that it held me in its grip.”

This is the inevitable peril of Palestine which may engulf Israel, with the impending demise of the idea of a peaceful, safe and secure homeland, where democracy thrives and values which are the very anti-thesis of those which brought the Holocaust on its people reign supreme.

In being seen as complicit with Israel’s ‘fire and brimstone’ tactics against the people of Gaza, the US, too, is in danger of losing its international credibility and moral centre. The contrast with its response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is stark. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been declared a ‘war criminal’ for the indiscriminate killing of innocent Ukrainian civilians and the appalling suffering heaped on them. But Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu is being shielded from repeated international calls for a ceasefire. The UN Secretary-General, in a rare move, invoked Article 99 of the UN Charter to call for an immediate ceasefire, but the resolution was vetoed by the US.

The US has worked hard to prevent an escalation of the war beyond Gaza. The rich and powerful oil kingdoms in the Gulf also do not want the war to escalate. But it is undeniable that the Hamas terror attack on Israel and its violent aftermath have once again put the Palestinian issue front-and-centre in West Asian politics. The systematic marginalisation of the Palestinian cause not just by Israel but by much of the Arab world has come a cropper. A political settlement of the Palestine issue is indispensable and Israel has to pursue it for its own future and security. The Hamas presence in Gaza may be decimated, but incarnations of Hamas will rise like Medusa in the West Bank and among the Israelis of Arab origin living within the borders of Israel.

The longer the war continues and people across the world witness the horrifying images of the unmitigated suffering of the people of Gaza on their TV screens, the harder it may become for the Arab nations to prevent their agitated citizens from taking to the streets. There have already been unprecedented and large anti-Israel demonstrations in major Western capitals and not only among their expatriate Palestinian and Muslim populations. If for the sake of the security of their authoritarian regimes they must unlatch themselves from Israel and, equally, distance themselves from the US, the politics of the region will change dramatically. Already, the once imminent prospect of Saudi Arabia establishing formal relations with Israel has been put on hold and is unlikely to be revived in the foreseeable future. This may have been one of the triggers of the Hamas operation.

China and Russia have, on balance, more to gain than lose from these developments. The US now has to deal with two war zones simultaneously. The attention on Ukraine has diminished and therefore the pressure on Russia. Then we have the upcoming elections in Taiwan and the possibility that the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which China detests, may retain power. This could well lead to heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait and a confrontation with the US may follow. Not even the strongest superpower can cope with crises on multiple fronts and this is giving greater room for manoeuvring to China and Russia. Recent moves by the US to re-engage with China at senior levels is one indication. Other US partners as well as adversaries feel bold enough to flex muscles. It is no coincidence that Putin was welcomed last week both in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, neither being particularly mindful of American sensitivities. The prospect of a Trump presidency only compounds the limits on US power.

India needs to follow these emerging trends with keen attention and adjust its external relations in response. Among the constituency of developing countries which are categorised as the Global South, India is an outlier with its very close relations with Israel. Its parallel relationships with key Arab states may also come under strain if the Israel-Hamas war drags on. There is still a window of opportunity for Indian diplomacy to use its currently benign relations with all key actors in the region to promote an end to violence and facilitate a peaceful settlement. China cannot play that role as it has chosen to castigate Israel. The US, too, may welcome India’s role.

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