The Kashmir imbroglio

Gurbachan Jagat

Former Governor, Manipur

Rajouri and Poonch are again under the lens because of the precision attack carried out on our Army soldiers, in which five jawans lost their lives, including four from Punjab. Without doubt, it is the handiwork of terrorists guided and abetted by inimical forces across the border. Before going into the details of this attack, I would like to give some background to explain the importance of this area. Towards the end of the last century, there was a spate of attacks on security forces and massacres of civilians (mainly Hindus) in the upper reaches of Rajouri, Poonch, Gul and Mahore in Udhampur and Doda districts. All these areas fall on the Jammu side of the Pir Panjal mountains and are contiguous to the Valley on the other side. These massacres led to grave unrest in the civil population and some migration to the lower areas.

In the absence of political activity, the people are sullen and silent. As a result, operational intelligence has dried up to some extent. This is affecting the operations of our forces.

At that point in time, it was clear that the forces of terror and their masters across the border wanted to force the Hindus to migrate from the areas contiguous to the Valley, thereby integrating these regions with the majority Muslim population of the Valley. This plan, if successful, would have left only half of Udhampur, Kathua and Jammu districts with the minority population. However, the plan was foiled by the combined efforts of the Government of India, the state government and the security forces, including the Army, the paramilitary forces and the police. The J&K Police, with its special operation groups, had become a potent force, especially in its ability to provide operational intelligence. Also, the village defence committees set up on a large scale were a great help.

This model continued to operate, by and large, because of the excellent synergy of the forces on the ground and things remained under control. Thereafter, there were various changes of guard and eventually, President’s rule was imposed and Article 370, etc., was revoked. This did not lead to any major upsurge against the government, but a wall of silence and fear descended upon the Valley and neighbouring areas across the mountains. The Valley was silent, the mountains were silent, the people were silent. The presence of the security forces was all-pervasive. However, this did not bring the Pandits back, it did not make the Pandits working and living in the Valley feel safe. So far, it has not resulted in elections, or even the restoration of statehood. Terrorism was controlled, infiltration too decreased, overground activities declined, especially those of Jamaat-e-Islami. However, targeted killings, especially of Pandits, have continued at sporadic intervals, enough to make them want to leave the Valley. The security forces have been active, but in the absence of political activity, the people are sullen and silent. As a result of this silence, my fear is that operational intelligence has dried up to some extent and this is affecting the operations of the forces.

Let us not forget that the efforts of Pakistan, its ISI and terror outfits continue. The internal situation of Pakistan continues to deteriorate, with its economy and internal security in a shambles. Its political setup and the judiciary are in a confrontational mode amid great uncertainty created, in part, by former PM Imran Khan. The army, meanwhile, is watching the developing chaos and waiting for the right moment to strike effectively. Bilawal Bhutto’s proposed visit to India can become the catalyst for this. Pakistan’s intransigent attitude over Kashmir and its renewed special support for terrorist activities are bound to affect the comparative peace in Kashmir. Added to this is the renewed support to Pakistan by the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) recently. Somehow, the Machiavellian state controlling Pakistan has always managed to play all sides and remain relevant. The Americans have their own agenda in this region, for which they need Pakistani bases. The Chinese use it for their own good. The Arab world considers it an ally (and it is the only Islamic country with a nuclear bomb).

The situation gets further complicated by China’s animosity towards India and its policy on Kashmir. China considers India both as a short-term and long-term adversary and is tailoring its policies accordingly. That it has a design for the region is clear and can be seen in the route of the Belt and Road project connecting Ladakh to Gwadar. It was vociferous in its objections to the change of status of J&K. Developments on the LAC followed shortly thereafter. On one side, large tracts of PoK are under Chinese control, and on the other, the LAC is kept active and an aggressive posture is maintained. There has been no progress over Depsang, while Arunachal has also been brought into the equation. We will thus be forced to maintain and increase our vigil, upgrade, and multiply our resources and up our diplomatic game. With this background, there is no time to lose. A lot of time has already been wasted on inter-force wrangling on theatre commands and recruitment. It is time to decide and act; rhetoric cannot replace policy and action.

As far as the incident in Poonch is concerned, it smells of complacency on the part of the Army unit concerned — a lone truck, no security cover, no proper route sanitisation, no intelligence, and a delayed response.

Gujjar inhabitants of these border areas are full of information and both sides have been using them. The question is: who are better handlers? Good intelligence and an increased level of alertness in the security forces should help contain the situation. The silence of the Valley, the presence of professional assassins for targeted killings, the increased infiltration, and the activity in the Jammu areas contiguous to the Valley, the support of OIC and China — all are pointers towards resumed terrorism on a high scale. Our response lies in proper policy lines, thought-out action and a vigorous political and diplomatic push. All these fronts, if activated, will deliver results — time is of the essence.

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