The murky politics of Maharashtra

A common adage says that “Politics is the last refuge of the scoundrel.” But the political arena is also a place where grown-ups play childish games. The taxpayer could ignore such frolic, but not when it is at the cost of the public exchequer.

The BJP and the Shinde Shiv Sena are likely to fight the Brihanmumbai MC elections as separate entities.

In anticipation of the much overdue Municipal Corporation elections and, of course, the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Eknath Shinde, now one year in office as Maharashtra’s Chief Minister, began to look at himself as a ‘knight in armour’. He had not imagined that he would be catapulted to the high office soon after he and his 40 men had been weaned away from the Thackeray Shiv Sena to form his own version of that ‘army’.

The chief architect of that split was the former Chief Minister, BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis. He leads the larger component of the new coalition government, the BJP. Naturally, he expected his party bigwigs in Delhi to anoint him as the chief. But the bigwigs had other ideas. They must have kept the caste configurations in mind. Shinde belongs to the majority Maratha caste whereas poor Fadnavis is a Brahmin. If there were intentions of cutting Fadnavis down to size, I would not know. And it is beside the point. Fadnavis, a proven administrator, was downsized to No. 2.

Fadnavis had no alternative but to take the demotion in his stride. He was mature enough to adjust to the changed arrangement. He contented himself by sharing the dais and the honours at public functions with his new boss, who he alone had groomed. The public at large felt that there were actually two chief ministers in the state and since they were not getting into each other’s hair, everything was hunky-dory.

And then, very suddenly, very unexpectedly, there was the poster. It appeared at all street corners in my city of Mumbai one fine morning. Only CM Shinde found a place in the poster along with our omnipresent Prime Minister Narendra Modi. No sign of poor Fadnavis, whose picture had invariably been printed along with Shinde’s in all previous posters put out by the regime. Since the poster was to commemorate the first year in office of the BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) government and the printed text extolled its achievements, the omission of the Deputy CM from the picture gallery was ominous. It was taken note of immediately as the omission was so glaring.

Moreover, the poster pointedly referred to a survey made by a TV channel that rated Shinde above Fadnavis in popularity and more preferred as the CM! To me, it appears that the agency entrusted with the polling was chosen and commissioned by Shinde or his cronies and the people polled were carefully selected to obtain the end result that was so boldly published.

Instantly, the poster went viral. Every Maharashtrian I know found it highly amusing. Of course, Fadnavis was not amused. In fact, he had every reason to be displeased. He was the one who had taken Shinde out of the darkness into the light. It was the crowning achievement of his political career. He had paid back Uddhav for ditching him and the BJP by joining the NCP and the Congress to form the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government after the BJP and Shiv Sena had fought the elections in tandem. Hence, to be repaid in this insolent manner by his own protégé was something unexpected and also unacceptable.

The matter seems to have been sorted out between the two leaders the very next day because the poster was brought down everywhere on the third day after its initial appearance. But the damage had been done. The seeds of animosity had been sown. It will manifest itself in one form or the other in the year ahead. Its reverberations will be felt more loudly in the BMC (Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation) elections later this year since the BJP and the Shinde Shiv Sena are likely to fight local elections as separate entities.

Incidentally, a new survey published this week had put Fadnavis (with 35 per cent votes) ahead of Shinde (who got 12 per cent votes) as people’s choice for the CM’s post. Even Congress leader Ashok Chavan and NCP’s Ajit Pawar were ahead of Shinde, with 21 per cent votes each. Uddhav Thackeray trailed with 9 per cent.

The election prospects of the five parties that matter in Maharashtra are unfathomable at this particular juncture. The BJP seems to have its nose in front, especially in the urban conglomerates of Mumbai, Pune and Nagpur. There are four other cities in the state Thane, Solapur, Akola and Aurangabad where the BJP must have gained ground. In the BMC elections, the odds are that the BJP will emerge as the single largest party, pushing the Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena to the second place.

The NCP of Sharad Pawar and the Congress will make their presence felt in the rural hinterland. Their workers are more active in areas where individual leaders dominate. The Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena is strong in Thane, the happy hunting ground of Shinde himself. Its attempt to best the Thackeray Shiv Sena in the interiors have not been particularly successful.

The outlook for the 2024 General Election is hazy at present. All five parties the BJP, the Shiv Sena (Shinde), the Shiv Sena (Thackeray), the Congress and the NCP will return a few representatives to Parliament. It all depends on the adjustments the BJP makes with the Shinde faction on one hand, and that the Uddhav faction makes with the Congress and the NCP on the other. The BJP has shown more political sense and stands a better chance to strike a deal with its weaker partner. The MVA can take on the BJP-Shinde Shiv Sena if it is able to share the 48 Lok Sabha seats in an acceptable proportion, and that would not be easy.

The Congress has shown greater intransigence than the other parties and ever since its victory in Karnataka, it has turned even more obdurate. Its other two partners, the Shiv Sena (Thackeray) and NCP, have better claims than the grand old party as of now. The Gandhis will have to acquire more political wisdom to navigate the stormy waters of Maharashtra’s politics if the Congress is to deprive Modi of his sleep leading up to the 2024 elections.