The Opposition challenge

Julio Ribeiro

All talk these days is about elections. No state Assembly elections have attracted so much attention. What is the reason? It is obvious that the Modi-Shah duo feel the ground slipping under their feet. And so it seems to ordinary citizens with a modicum of interest in the country’s politics.

Modi spoke to the nation a day before the first round of polling in the crucial UP elections. He went on national television loudly and boldly proclaiming that the BJP would sweep all five states! If he had that level of confidence, he need not have bothered to gamble on a one-on-one interview, something that he has been avoiding all these years.

Can voters be taken for a ride endlessly? Can lack of jobs and rising prices be neutralised with just some free foodgrains, and if so, for how long?

He even answered some tricky questions which he had obviously anticipated. These included some of the charges against him that had stuck. The charge of forgetting that immigrant labour in big cities live on daily wages and will go without a meal if they are out of work for any length of time and that he had not spared a thought for them when proclaiming a total lockdown on a four-hour notice, must have rankled! In his inimitable style, Modi shifted the blame to the Opposition without batting an eyelid.

He accused Arvind Kejriwal and his young followers of driving round the bastis of Delhi, where the migrants lived, urging them to flee! He accused the Congress of purchasing bus and train tickets for the migrants, though he, had told them to stay put at their workplace and that they would be looked after. I confess I had never heard this one before. And I realised that this was one of our PM’s sleights of hand! A few more like this were also included in the course of the 70-minute interview.

The fact that he gave the interview and had decided on explanations in advance point out to a certain nervous feeling intruding into the thought processes of an otherwise confident leader. His appeal is obviously fading and he has sensed it. The reverence with which people used to speak of him earlier is fraying. The results of the coming five state elections will disclose the mind of the electorate. Can they be taken for a ride endlessly? Will the economic difficulties they face not alter perceptions? Can lack of jobs and rising prices of essential commodities be neutralised with just some free foodgrains, and if so, for how long?

I spoke to some close relatives in Goa. A small state, with just a few lakh voters. But important enough in 2017 for the BJP to lure 10 of the 17 Congress legislators to defect and join the BJP en masse! My relatives told me that there was a sudden surge of support for the Congress. That did surprise me, though I was aware that the BJP had lost a lot of ground because of its poor performance since Manohar Parrikar’s demise. Yet, I do feel that the BJP will emerge as the single largest entity in the Assembly because the AAP and the TMC will split the Opposition votes. But the final verdict will be a split Assembly with no clear winner.

In Punjab, where I have many friends, the Congress and the AAP are competing for pole position. The choice of Charanjit Singh Channi as the Congress pick for Chief Minister has galvanised the large SC segment (more than 30 per cent) of voters. The BJP’s new-found ally, Capt Amarinder Singh, has not drawn crowds as he thought he would. How Modi concluded that the BJP would sweep all five states is a puzzle.

In Uttarakhand also, the BJP will not find it easy. On the contrary, it looks to be a three-cornered contest with the AAP, led by a retired Colonel, making the contest unpredictable. I confess I do not know much of what is likely to happen in Manipur. Perhaps, Modi may be right about that state.

The real test will be of the most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, with its poor social development indicators. Its Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, fears that his state will go the way of West Bengal, Kerala and J&K if it chooses Akhilesh Yadav over him. If that does happen I do not know if the literacy rate, the infant mortality rate and the child development indicators will improve, but if they come even halfway near Kerala’s, people of UP should be overjoyed.

I guess Yogi is not thinking of such indicators when he makes his out-of-the-box statements. He has only the ‘20’ component of the 80:20 in his mind! He fears the ‘20’ will gain ascendancy in a state turned crime free through ‘shoot at sight’ orders issued by him. That illegal order gained him much support for the initial period of his reign. But that advantage was lost when he mucked up the anti-Covid measures when the second wave struck.

The state of joblessness in this poverty-stricken part of the country will weaken his efforts to incite the anti-minority hate and fear that he has been banking on for his return to power. Even if he squeaks through, it will be with a much-reduced margin, and if the margin is considerably less than in 2017, his standing in the party and his party’s standing in the polity will take a massive hit.

In the meantime, the Union minister’s son, arrested for allegedly ordering the mowing down of farmers at Lakhimpur Kheri, is out on bail. It is noteworthy that our system of justice facilitates the release of murder accused on bail if they belong to the ruling party’s list of supporters and ensures that even young students criticising government policies languish in jail for years together, like anti-CAA and NRC protesters from JNU and Jamia Millia did (some are yet to be released from Tihar). Will this injustice strike the voters in UP? Will it inspire them to oust Yogi’s regime? I doubt it! It amazes me that our fellow citizens take such injustices in their stride!

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