The tightening noose

RECENT events once again push me to contemplate on India’s place in the global scheme of things, the power play being enacted and the role which South Bloc needs to be playing. Lately, a lot has been made of US President Trump and his personality which is driving American strategy. While this is a factor, to consider it all-encompassing is an oversimplification of the affairs of state; especially so when the nation in question is a superpower.

Perhaps our own politics, which for long has been individual-based as opposed to institutional, compels us to view others in the same light… it is a grievous error in my opinion. To begin with, take the US-Pakistan relationship. While Pakistan may at times have been a problem child for the US (especially during the al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden phase), it has by and large been an instrument of US policy for South and Central Asia.

Pakistan played an important role during the Afghan Mujahideen rebellion against the USSR. Subsequently, during the US invasion of Afghanistan and the war with the Taliban, Pakistan provided both logistic support and intelligence, thereby playing a double game with the Taliban and the Haqqani network, albeit at a high cost to itself.

Beginning with the ‘Patton’ tanks and subsequently the F16 fighter planes, Pakistan’s military has also largely been equipped and trained by the US. Of course, more recently, it has also discovered a strong supporter in China. I bring this old connection up to highlight the strategic interests which the US has had (and still does) in the region. Now once again the US President has demanded that Afghanistan hand over the Bagram air base to America, indicating that kinetic action is forthcoming.

Our relations with the USSR and especially the induction of Russian-built arms and ammunition for all the three services (most of our older equipment is Russian) had kept India-US relations cold or at best lukewarm for the most part of the 20th century. The break-up of the Soviet Union and the opening up of the Indian economy created a conducive environment for a fresh start. The India-US civil nuclear agreement during PM Manmohan Singh’s tenure ended a decades-long nuclear technology ban on India and gave it de facto recognition as a nuclear weapon state. This gave a lot of positive momentum to India-US ties.

During the first term of President Trump, things seemed to be improving for India-US relations. However, the signs became ominous this year when Trump claimed to have negotiated the India-Pakistan ceasefire after the May skirmish which followed the Pahalgam massacre perpetrated by Pakistan-based terrorists. India rightly denied this and clarified that it was negotiated between the two countries’ DGMOs. Subsequently, Trump has repeatedly taken ownership of the ceasefire, claiming that he avoided a possible nuclear conflict. The next knot in the noose came with the one-on-one lunch that Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir was treated to by Trump (the US has hosted him later also). The invitation to the Army Chief of a country having a President and a PM tells its own story. An invite was also extended to our PM, who was in Canada at that time, but he declined as he had prior engagements (the current occupants of the White House would not have taken this lightly).

In his election rallies last year, Trump had called India the ‘tariff king’ and threatened to impose high tariffs on India and other countries which he claimed had unfair trade balances and practices with the US. Eventually, hefty tariffs were levied; 25% at first, which was a snub as our neighbouring Asian countries, barring China, have much lower tariffs and then the extra 25% for buying Russian oil (bringing the total to a prohibitive 50%).

For some reason, our foreign and commerce ministries and a large section of the media appeared to be in denial of this looming threat, hoping that the personal rapport of our leaders would save the day. Currently, not a day goes by when further punitive measures are not threatened against our economy. The H-1B visa fiasco (imposition of $1,00,000 fee) is the latest salvo fired in our direction. This will have massive long-term ramifications for our IT firms and professionals. We should try and create a conducive environment for the likely reverse migration of these highly trained professionals instead of losing them once again to some other foreign country.

So, why are we being isolated and targeted? Is it mainly a question of Russian oil? If that were the case, then Europe and many NATO countries would be guilty of the same. If not, then are we becoming the ‘patsy’ in a much bigger game? For how does a Saudi-Pak military pact come about so quickly? Without the blessings of the US, it’s not possible.

The other punch delivered quietly to our gut was the rescinding of the sanction waiver on the Chabahar port in Iran. This port was one of our major strategic interests in the region and it would have helped us reach the Central Asian markets and Afghanistan. Maybe the recent bombing of Iran by the US has influenced this as well as the deals being made between the US and Pakistan. Maybe these are moves being made to counter Chinese influence in the region. China is a major buyer of Iranian oil. China and Afghanistan have been striking deals on rare earth mining. The Belt and Road Initiative passes through this region — there could be many games at play.

I would like to bring our immediate neighbourhood into focus. Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have all had violent government changes within a short span of time. They appeared to be sudden eruptions, and it is not certain whether they were the result of internal unrest alone or trouble fomented by foreign powers. We have not succeeded in finding a solution to the Manipur problem and there are serious fault lines being deepened in the North-East, which is surrounded by Myanmar, Bangladesh and Nepal. After a long gestation period in which no effort was made to identify the problem and solve it, Ladakh has finally come to a boil. This on the back of our existing border issues with China does nothing to help the cause of the Indian state. The use of lethal weapons against our own citizens should be the last resort, if at all.

Given the turbulent nature of the times, with tensions being generated all over the globe and nation-states veering to protectionism and deglobalisation, we need to identify our own place in the scheme of things, lest we be overpowered by events.

Gurbachan Jagat is former Manipur Governor and ex-DGP, J&K.