The West is the gainer as Ukraine war meanders along

Maj Gen Jagatbir Singh (Retd)

Military Commentator

THE Russia-Ukraine war has completed 21 months, even as the US-led West’s focus is now on the conflict in West Asia. The October 7 Hamas attack, which coincided with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s birthday, led to the outbreak of a war in Gaza, turning the spotlight away from Ukraine.

Consequentially, the Ukrainian conflict looks like a limited war when compared to Israel’s no-holds-barred retaliation in Gaza. Prior to October 7, Western analysts regarded a stalemate as a ‘pessimistic viewpoint’ as far as the Ukraine war was concerned. The West bolstered the Ukrainian Defence Forces with state-of-the-art weapon systems and was hoping that the counter-offensive would be successful. The EU had done what was unthinkable before the Russian invasion — supplying lethal equipment to a non-member state at war. Aid to Ukraine was the buzzword and there were frequent trips by President Zelenskyy to various capitals demanding assistance to fight the war.

There was speculation and optimism regarding the Ukrainian counter-offensive, given their initial success in the two operations they had conducted in 2022 and due to the fact that their troops had been armed and trained by the West. However, the Leopards and Challengers failed to make any breakthrough across the obstacle line which the Russians had created in the winter months. The West hoped that Ukrainian gains would result in the Russians being forced to negotiate for a resolution to the conflict, but this has proved to be an illusion.

The flood of Western support, it was believed, would enable Ukraine to evict the Russians. The promised German Leopard 2, British Challenger 2 and American M1 Abrams tanks and M2 Bradley infantry-fighting vehicles were meant to decisively alter the odds. But the Ukrainian military needed many more of these combat vehicles, greater number of HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) rounds and long-range missiles, and thousands of artillery shells. It also needed greater engineering, amphibious and logistical capacity to penetrate fortified Russian defensive lines, clear hundreds of miles of occupied territory, and conduct amphibious and ground assaults to cross into Crimea and dislodge Russian forces. Most importantly, it needed air power to give it an air attack capability. Above all, it needed trained manpower to handle these complex systems and integrate them. This was clearly lacking.

The fact is that the West dithered for months before agreeing to supply the tanks and then took even longer to actually send them. By August-end, there were only 87 Leopards and 14 Challengers and no Abrams. Switching over from Soviet-origin systems to Western equipment has been a challenge for the Ukrainian army. There are also restrictions imposed on their employment as these cannot be used on Russian soil. Hence, the Surovikin Line could not be outflanked, as was done to the Maginot Line.

Advances are likely to come at a much higher price in terms of human costs due to the hardening of frontlines. Territorial reclamation, undoubtedly important to Ukraine, appears unlikely as its counter-offensive has been unable to break though the forward defences.

It seems that Ukraine lacks the capacity even with external assistance to achieve a decisive military victory. Regardless of how much territory it is able to recapture, which is presently negligible, Ukraine is unlikely to push Russia out of the Donbas region and Crimea. Further, even if it does achieve success, the Russian army will continue to pose a permanent threat.

The West has downplayed Russia’s fears and ignored the damage to its national pride. It is said that the humiliation faced by President Putin as a KGB officer being forced to leave East Germany and witness the disintegration of the Soviet Union led to his wanting to restore Russia’s glory. The fact that the West did not adhere to its promise of not expanding NATO eastwards was a red line that had been crossed.

In November 2019, President Macron had said: “What we are currently experiencing is the brain death of NATO… Europe stands on the edge of a precipice and needs to start thinking of itself strategically as a geopolitical power; otherwise, we will no longer be in control of our destiny.”

As a result, the major contributor to NATO’s security has been the US. Since the war began, the Biden administration has invested more than $76 billion in assistance to Ukraine, which includes humanitarian, financial and military support, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German research institute. This figure does not include all war-related US spending, such as aid to allies. The aid to Israel was $3.3 billion in 2021. Now, with its closest ally at war, it is natural for the US to turn its attention in that direction.

The Ukraine war is likely to end without a resolution to the territorial issue. Ukraine may have to settle for the line of contact being accepted as the de facto border. Ukraine’s Gen Valery Zaluzhny recently admitted: “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”

NATO now needs to work with Ukraine on a new strategy that reflects military and political realities. To do otherwise would be to gamble recklessly on Ukraine’s future.

The truth remains that there cannot be unrealistic assumptions about how easy it can be to overwhelm and defeat the enemy. Wars rarely go as planned; hence, neither side can afford to persist with a war in the hope of celebrating a victory purely on its terms.

As long as the Ukrainians are willing to fight, the West is benefiting as this has tied up the Russian forces and thereby diminished the threat they pose. Unfortunately, it is in the West’s interests to prolong the war by bleeding Russia in a ‘cost-effective’ manner.

In 1919, then French Prime Minister Georges Clemenceau said: “Making peace is harder than waging war.” These words echo with renewed significance and urgency today.

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