This way or that

Us President Joe Biden’s impromptu comment on his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin has sent shockwaves around the world. ‘For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power,’ Biden said after a carefully crafted speech read out of a teleprompter in Warsaw.

Consistency in staying our course is running counter to that of the G-7 and large sections of the international community, and could isolate us.

Was this as yet another gaffe by Biden, or a deliberate provocation? Or was it an inadvertent expression of his true feelings for Putin. Earlier in the day, he had termed Putin a ‘butcher’ for the devastation he had wrought on Ukraine, and even termed him ‘war criminal’. Whatever be the case, and the post-facto explanations, they make it difficult for the two Presidents to have a normal or near-normal relationship again. The Russians have probably made worst-case assumptions here, including that the remarks could be a signal to Russian elites to get rid of Putin.

The situation in Europe has now taken the dimensions of what a former US official has called a ‘geopolitical earthquake’. Importantly,  it has created unprecedented unity in Europe against Russia, the country that supplies the region 40 per cent of its gas supplies. But Russia has engulfed Europe in its biggest war since World War II with its attendant humanitarian crisis. The Americans now see themselves not just fighting, but leading the indirect war against Russia. This has been a remarkable turnaround from a situation where former President Donald Trump, who was on friendly terms with Putin,  had questioned the relevance of NATO and pushed an America First agenda.

Given their size and strength, the Russians will prevail if the war continues. They now say that they are mainly focusing on the Donbas region. But this could be a feint and on the ground the war grinds on creating more death, destruction and refugees.

By calling for the removal of Putin, the Americans may have made it harder to reach a negotiated settlement.

Just how long can India escape being singed by the rising flames? New Delhi has laid out a policy that claims to take the middle ground. It wants an end to hostilities without acknowledging that one side is doing the attacking, it calls for respecting sovereignty and integrity of all, even when the issue is really about how the Russians have violated both in Ukraine.

The ‘balance’ was visible last week when India abstained on two separate resolutions relating to the humanitarian situation arising out of the war. On Wednesday, a Russian-sponsored resolution in the UN Security Council  got just Russia and China’s vote, while 13 other members, including India, abstained. On Thursday, a Ukraine-sponsored resolution in the UN General Assembly got 140 votes, while 38 states, including India abstained. On paper this looked balanced, but the reality is that the international community backed Ukraine’s resolution at the UNGA overwhelmingly and attacked Russia for creating a ‘dire’ humanitarian situation by its invasion.

Speaking in the Rajya Sabha last Thursday, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said the Indian position was based on six principles — an immediate end to violence, a return to dialogue and diplomacy, respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty of all states and the anchoring of the global order on international law and the UN Charter, support for humanitarian assistance and New Delhi’s continuing contact with the leadership of the Ukraine and Russia.

Jaishankar termed the Indian position ‘steadfast and consistent’, but the tremors of the geopolitical earthquake could become a tsunami, and New Delhi would be well advised to take cover. As it is, consistency and steadfastness in staying our course is running counter to that of the G-7 and large sections of the international community and could lead us to get isolated, along with Russia and China, on the issue.

India may have the satisfaction of insisting that its position is based on its national interest, which is a bold statement of fact since India is hugely dependent on Russia for its armament. But the problem begins when our national interest begins to collide with that of our good friend and global hegemon, the US.

New Delhi lives in the hope that it will continue to get a pass from Washington on account of the US’ need to confront China in the Indo-Pacific. But the Ukraine conflict has stirred a deep emotional chord in the US and Europe, besides generating unprecedented unity in the world’s most important politico-economic bloc. This is steeling their determination to first punish and contain Moscow and in this mood, they may not be too accommodative of New Delhi’s over-subtle policy.

The Covid pandemic and the US trade war with China had initiated the process of near-shoring and reshoring critical supply chains. Europe, which was somewhat late on this score,  has now redoubled its efforts to seek strategic autonomy in sectors like semiconductors and reduce its dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

On Friday, during Biden’s European tour, the US and EU agreed to create a task force to wean Europe from its dependence. To underscore their seriousness, they signed a deal for the supply of 15 billion cubic metres of LNG. While this is a fraction of the 150 billion cubic metres of gas, and another 14-18 billion cubic metres of LNG, of what Russia supplies to Europe, it does mark the beginning of a process. What is aspirational today could become the reality tomorrow.

In turn, this could underscore a geopolitical and geoeconomic shift that could upset Indian calculations.