Transitioning from fossil fuels demands concrete action plans

VK Bahuguna

Former Director General, Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education

THE Conference of the Parties (COP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the global community’s annual summit for finding collective solutions to global warming. The final draft declaration of the COP28 summit, which was held in Dubai recently, takes into account the observations of the Global Stocktake report and calls for “increasing climate action and access to finance for communities and countries threatened or affected by fragility or conflict, or facing severe humanitarian needs; to strengthen knowledge and programmatic solutions for climate action in such settings; and to foster collaboration at multiple levels and across regions and humanitarian, development, climate and peace actors to address the multi-dimensional challenges of climate change”.

The climate deal signed by around 200 countries was hailed by COP28 president Sultan Al-Jaber as a historic package, with the oil-rich countries agreeing on using the phrase ‘transitioning away’ from fossil fuels (rather than the more emphatic term, ‘phase down’). Al-Jaber termed the deal as a ‘robust plan’ to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5°C over pre-industrial times. While addressing the plenary, Al-Jaber said: “We must take necessary steps to turn this agreement into tangible action.” But the question is: How swift, just and equitable will this transition from fossil fuels be? To ensure this, it is necessary to either go for very heavy cuts in emissions or to use technologies to offset the losses. Additionally, there is a need for trillions of dollars in financing; otherwise, the declaration may be perceived merely as an attempt by diplomats to proclaim the negotiations a success with appropriate terminology.

COP summits usually lay bare differences between the developed world and the developing nations on how to move forward on combating climatic change. COP28, notwithstanding the agreement of ‘transitioning away’ from fossil fuels, is no exception. Without a very firm ‘action programme’ with clear identification of finance, it will be difficult for the world to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, as agreed at COP28. Any tangible action programme depends on developed countries acknowledging their contribution to global warming and being willing to fund the developing world to access superior technologies.

On the other hand, developing countries, including India, must recognise the necessity of undertaking climate-resilient development independently and focus on research to develop technologies that can help achieve emission reduction targets. India, for example, is moving in the right direction as per the Paris agreement of 2015. India has to achieve its short-term and long-term targets under the Panchamrit action plan — non-fossil fuel energy capacity of 500 GW by 2030, fulfilling at least half of its energy requirements via renewable energy by 2030 and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 1 billion tonnes by 2030. By the end of 2030, India aims to reduce carbon intensity by 45 per cent, with a target of achieving net-zero emissions by 2070. Indian emissions in 2022 were only 8 per cent of the global volume, whereas China led with 32 per cent (11.4 billion metric tonnes of carbon), followed by the US with 14 per cent (5.1 billion metric tonnes of carbon). The European Union contributes 8 per cent to the global total. Going by the per capita emissions, the US leads with 15.32 tonnes, followed by Russia (11.45 tonnes) and China (7.44 tonnes); Indians’ share is less than 2 tonnes. Though India refused to sign the ‘phase down’ agreement on coal, it is nevertheless on the right path. In due course, the use of coal for energy will decline substantially, aligning with the target of reducing emissions. It is thus evident that world leaders need to consider inter-generational equity when devising practical, firm and implementable solutions to meet the targets for limiting the temperature increase to 1.5°C.

The situation, however, remains grim. Apart from the agreement on fossil fuels, which this writer views as a face-saving formula to prevent the collapse of dialogue, there is a lack of substantial measures on how to set and monitor targets, particularly in terms of increasing climate funding for poor and developing countries. The fact is that in many locations around the world, temperatures have already surpassed the 1.5°C threshold.

In India alone, the average temperature has risen in the range of 0.7-1°C at many locations, according to data collected by the Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education for the period from 1930 to 2010 from around 90 meteorological stations located in forest areas. The data revealed massive changes in forest vegetation. Based on past experiences, the COP28 declaration may once again turn out to be verbose and vacuous if the UNFCCC secretariat does not come up with a sound and time-bound programme without waiting for COP29. For this, world leaders must meet soon to assess and heed the forecasts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and formulate a collective action programme, as the earth and its inhabitants are waiting for the humanity to act without fail.

India, being a prominent representative of the Global South, needs to think and act innovatively. It should take the lead by chalking out a format for south-south cooperation, addressing financial needs and helping each other in sharing and developing technologies. If concerted efforts are made by India, China and the oil-rich countries, a workable programme can be developed. India should also focus on planning for climate resilience at the district and block levels, laying emphasis on water conservation and forest management. Integration of primary sector activities into the plans should be emphasised for better climate change adaptation and mitigation.

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