Trump’s Gaza plan leaves two-state issue unclear

PRIMA FACIE, US President Donald Trump's 20-point proposal for peace in Gaza might resemble President Ronald Reagan's two-track peace plan for Lebanon, announced in September 1982. Moved by "American public outrage and a phone call from King Fahd," Reagan called up Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and curtly told him to stop the heavy bombing of PLO positions, which was destroying much of Lebanon's infrastructure. Simultaneously, he enlisted Syrian help to stabilise the region.

However, there are vast differences. While the Reagan plan stated that its goal was to "reconcile Israel's legitimate security concerns with the legitimate rights of the Palestinians", the Trump plan excludes Hamas, the elected government in Gaza (2006), from "any role in the governance of Gaza, directly, indirectly, or in any form."

True, the Trump plan speaks of "a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood — recognised as the aspiration of the Palestinian people." There is, however, no mention whether the US would accept a two-state solution.

Similarly, while the Reagan plan permitted PLO leader Yasser Arafat and 14,000 PLO fighters to depart to Tunisia with their weapons between August 21 and September 1, 1982, no such permission will be given to Hamas. After the release of Israeli hostages, Hamas will have to decommission its weapons and seek amnesty.

Point 6 mentions that Hamas members "who wish to leave Gaza will be provided safe passage to receiving countries." It is not clear whether they could keep their weapons. It is quite apparent that no Arab country would welcome armed Hamas cadres on their soil.

As in 1982, most Arab countries have backed the Trump plan. The only difference is that while their support in 2025 is overt, the help provided to the US by Syria in 1982 in stabilising Lebanon was covert, according to the secret papers of the late Abdul Halim Khaddam, then Syrian Foreign Minister. His files would shed light on a US-Syria agreement on the formal entry of Syrian forces into Beirut and their presence there until 2005 to stabilise Lebanon following Arafat's exit.

Under the Trump plan, which also echoes the February 2024 Biden plan, the US would work with Arab and international partners to develop a temporary International Stabilisation Force (ISF) to be deployed in Gaza. The ISF would train and support "vetted Palestinian police forces" in Gaza and consult with Jordan and Egypt, "who have extensive experience in this field."

Next, Gaza would be governed under the two-tier "temporary transitional governance" of a technocratic, "apolitical Palestinian committee", responsible for delivering the day-to-day running of public services and municipalities for Gaza. This committee would be selected from "qualified Palestinians" and international experts. Its oversight and supervision would be by a new international transitional body called the Board of Peace, which would be chaired by Trump, with other members and Heads of State to be announced, including former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

This body is supposed to establish the framework and funding for the redevelopment of Gaza until such time as the Palestinian Authority can complete its "reform programme", as outlined in various proposals. Here, a mention is made of "President Trump's peace plan in 2020" and "the Saudi French proposal", which it is hoped "can securely and effectively take back control of Gaza." This body would set up "modern and efficient governance with best international standards that would serve the people of Gaza which would be conducive to attracting investment."

The most striking part of the new plan is the exclusion of the United Nations (UN), except in aid distribution. It says: "Entry of distribution and aid in the Gaza Strip will proceed without interference from the two parties through the United Nations and its agencies, and the Red Crescent, in addition to other international institutions not associated in any manner with either party." Is this to please Israel?

There are many imponderables here. First, would the transitional authority dismiss the entire Hamas-led bureaucracy in Gaza? A similar 'de-Baathification' of Iraq's army and the dismissal of its existing administrative structure in 2003 by US presidential envoy L Paul Bremer created chaos in the country and helped create ungoverned territories in the region, leading to the global menace caused by the dreaded Islamic State (IS).

Second, the framers of the Trump plan do not seem to recognise layers and layers of political manipulation, intrigues and miscalculations in that region. Lying hidden in Khaddam's secret archives are Arafat's plans to continue fighting in Lebanon for another six months, but he was let down by Soviet Union (KGB). The reason? Arafat's refusal of a Soviet request to undermine Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's regime to spread Soviet/ Communist influence in Iran. As a result, Soviet Ambassador Alexander Soldatov in Beirut bluntly told Arafat to leave Beirut.

Third, after Arafat's departure to Tunisia, Israel's Defence Minister Ariel Sharon, who had orchestrated and led the 1982 invasion, vainly boasted it as "a crushing defeat, a blow from which it will be hard (for them) to recover."

Fourth, after 1982, Syria and Iran would strengthen their alliance, which led to the birth of Hezbollah and its cooperation with Hamas — once encouraged by Israel itself —leading later to repeated Gaza wars. Trump's plan does not seem to recognise Iran's role in that region and how it can be countered.

India has been a marginal player in all these developments. Its failure to take a strong stand on the indiscriminate Israeli bombing of civilians leading to 67,160 deaths, including at least 19,424 children, has been a point of regret among the traditional allies, including Navi Pillay, former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, who wondered how India could sell weapons to Israel. The signing of an investment treaty on September 8 with Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich added to the criticism.

True, the White House has acknowledged India's support to the Trump plan as "a viable pathway to long-term and sustainable peace, security and development for the Palestinian and Israeli people, as also for the larger West Asian region."

Views are personal

Vappala Balachandran is former Special Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat.