US-Israeli strikes leave Iran at a nuclear crossroads

ISRAEL, which has 90 nuclear warheads, is an undeclared nuclear weapon power that will not allow Iran — which has repeatedly declared its goal of wiping Israel off the map — to have a uranium enrichment programme.No responsible international agency, neither the United Nations nor the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), nor even any reputable intelligence agency has so far certified that Iran has a nuclear weapon or is making one. But Israel, aided by the US, has been crying wolf, certainly since 2011, and it raised the alarm over an imminent Iranian bomb in 2021.For a decade, I attended the annual world summit on counterterrorism and the strategic dialogue at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism at Reichman University, Herzliya (Israel), where the obsession with Iran’s nuclear capability and terror sponsorship was voiced clearly and consistently.I was taken on a field trip to the Negev desert in 2018 to check out the Iron Dome system. Pointing towards the east, a senior officer of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) indicated a site 20 km away where the IDF and the Indian Special Forces carried out a joint exercise. He also mentioned that joint air exercises had been conducted with the US.Presenting his keynote address titled ‘The Nuclear Threat and Beyond: the Iranian Five-fold Threat’ in September 2015, former Canadian Minister of Justice and a congenital Iran baiter, Irwin Cotler, said Tehran must be prevented from becoming a nuclear power, adding that it had 6,000 centrifuges — 5,000 in Natanz and 1,000 underground in Fordow. (Actually, it had only 164 in Fordow for R&D, and that too first-generation). This was soon after the much-condemned Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that was negotiated with Iran.The estimated timeframe for producing a usable nuclear weapon, as per Israel, varied between three and six months till 2015. Israel’s overt and covert actions were aimed at deterring or containing Iran’s nuclear weapons programme. In 2010, Israeli Mossad got Natanz and Bushehr nuclear plants injected with the Stuxnet virus. In 2020, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, father of Iran’s nuclear programme, was assassinated. Maj Gen Meir Dagan, former head of Mossad, said at the 2015 conference that Iran would not acquire nuclear capability before 2016.In 2021, Moshe Ya’alon, who served as the Defence Minister, Vice Prime Minister and the IDF chief, said at the conference that Iran was “… a month away from acquiring a nuclear weapon. It has a nuclear core, a trigger and three tonnes of enriched uranium. A nuclear warhead could be prepared in one to three months.”Iran’s nuclear project began in 2003 and picked up pace in 2005. It was stopped for 18 months in 2012 by President Khamenei. Then the JCPOA sanctions kicked in as it was a month away from acquiring nuclear substance.Yalon also said: “Israel can live with nuclear Iran but the moment Iran goes nuclear, Saudi Arabia (with Pakistan’s help) and Turkey will go nuclear. As we are a tiny state, Americans have to do it (attack Iran and end its nuclear ambition). President Biden should say no nuclear Iran on my watch…never”. He spelt out two choices: either the Americans do it alone or a joint US-Israeli operation is carried out.Both these contingencies were prepared during Trump 1.0, if not earlier. Israel is the most favoured US ally: the first to receive F35s in 2016 and always the first recipient of US high technology. It has long fretted about Iran’s bomb but not dared to go it alone. But having degraded Iran’s air defence systems in October 2024 and detected the holes in air defence not filled up by Russia or China, it found its opportunity. The stock of Iranian ballistic missiles of 15,000 has depleted to 1,500-2,500; it includes Shahab 3 (based on North Korea’s NoDong missile) and the hypersonic missile.The JCPOA took effect in 2016 when Iran had a stockpile of less than 300 kg of uranium of 3.67 per cent purity and around 6,000 centrifuges. According to Israeli intelligence, six years after JCPOA was trashed by the US in 2018, Iran had 7 tonnes of uranium enriched to 60 per cent and 15,000 centrifuges. When the JCPOA sanctions were imposed, Tehran was a month away from enriching weapons grade uranium to 90 per cent and another two months to weaponise it.In March this year, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said Iran was not building a nuclear weapon, and supreme leader Khamenei had not authorised a nuclear weapons programme he had suspended in 2003. Gen Erik Kurilla, United States Central Command chief, said last month that Iran could produce enough nuclear material for 10 weapons in three weeks — without indicating how long it would take to make a bomb.On June 13, Israel did what it never dared to: struck Iran’s nuclear facilities and ballistic missile sites and took out military commanders and scientists. Iran responded with drones and missiles for the first time, striking major cities and military infrastructure in Israel.Initially, the question was where and when the unequal tit-for-tat escalation would end. Once Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu had lured US President Donald Trump into bombing nuclear sites, the predicted outcomes ranged from the outbreak of World War III to a long war in the Middle East. Neither is on the cards for now, nor are the issues resolved.Once again Trump has stolen the thunder, arguably establishing that American military power is unmatched, and kept Russia and China guessing. While eliminating the existential threat from Iran, Israel attributed exaggerated, even manufactured, nuclear capabilities to Iran.How Iran will shape its fortunes over the ultimate deterrent is an unknown even if enriched uranium was retrieved before the bombings. Rafael Grossi, Director General of the IAEA, has warned that Iran could restart uranium enrichment within months at levels needed to build a nuclear bomb.India has been sitting on the fence through three wars being waged concurrently, chanting “we are on the side of peace” and calling for de-escalation, diplomacy and dialogue. This is not a path to Great Power status.Maj Gen Ashok K Mehta (retd) is former Founding Member, Defence Planning Staff.

US-Israeli strikes leave Iran at a nuclear crossroads

Maj Gen Ashok K Mehta (retd)

Unlock Premium Insights in This Article