What’s worrying Bangladeshis

When the news of West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee’s injury was reported last week, it created reverberations in Bangladesh as if it was a local election campaign mishap. Tens of thousands of Bangladeshis who have relatives, friends and acquaintances on the Indian side of the border made phone calls or sent text messages to ascertain what had happened and to enquire about her condition.

They know that if BJP wins, there is a probability of getting Teesta waters. But the opportunity cost of not getting water, as seen from Dhaka, is that Muslims feel safe in Bengal.

Some countries have a special relationship with India. Like Bangladesh, another such country is Mauritius. What echoed in Bangladesh with Mamata’s injury was similar to what happened in Mauritius when Atal Bihari Vajpayee had a providential escape as PM. I was in Port Louis then and the switchboard of the Indian High Commission was jammed with phone calls from anxious Mauritians who were concerned about Vajpayee’s welfare after an explosion in his proximity.

Navin Ramgoolam, the PM of Mauritius, was the first to telephone Indian High Commissioner Mani Lal Tripathi, who was soon inundated by calls from every Cabinet colleague of Ramgoolam’s. Mauritians have always had a special regard for Vajpayee. Once he stole their hearts with a scintillating and humour-laden speech in Hindi, understood by Bhojpuri-speaking local people, at the inauguration of the new premises of the Indira Gandhi Centre for Indian Culture there.

Bangladesh’s association with Bengal is of a similar, but deeper genre, fortified by a common language, history and culture. Bangladeshis adore Mamata, notwithstanding her consistent opposition to giving Teesta waters to Bengal’s eastern neighbour. It is a paradox that Bangladeshis also like Narendra Modi. They want Modi to rule in Delhi and have Mamata in power in Kolkata. Not that people across the border have any say in deciding either of these outcomes.

In Bengal and Bangladesh, poll campaigns have always had a festive air about them. It is not unusual to see womenfolk in rural Bengal go to their polling booths on voting day, dressed in their finery as if they are attending a wedding. However, in Bangladesh, the decimation and virtual disintegration of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party of Khaleda Zia a decade ago has robbed the populace of competitive democracy and those aspects of it that are akin to a funfair.

Bangladeshis are, therefore, watching the forthcoming poll festival in Bengal as entertainment in their backyard: entertainment that they have been deprived of by the absence of any challenge to their incumbent government in three previous elections. Of all South Asian countries, it is Bangladesh that continuously runs on rumours and narratives that are often pure fiction.

These contribute to concerns about the common heritage and legacy of the two flanks of Bengal even as the desire for entertainment is strong in the midst of Bengal’s coming eight-phase election. For most Bangladeshis who visit India, Kolkata is home, the rest of India is a tourist destination. That is why, 147 years after Kolkata’s New Market opened as an exclusive preserve of the city’s British residents, approximately 40 per cent of its big-ticket customers are visitors from Bangladesh.

Kolkata’s hospitality industry today thrives on those who come from Bangladesh. Alcohol is available in Dhaka, but drinking is often a cloak-and-dagger business there. But in Kolkata, pouring out a libation is for Bangladeshis an exercise in freedom. In the Assembly polls, where the BJP has a chance of coming to power for the first time, the worry for Bangladeshis is whether such an outcome will change their Kolkata experience.

More worrying for them is a word-of-mouth-propelled narrative which has gained currency throughout Bangladesh that Bengal will increasingly trend towards speaking Hindi if the BJP is victorious on May 2. It did not help that the BJP released its first list of candidates only in English and in Hindi, not in Bengali, and the party’s press conference on that occasion was in Hindi. The candidates’ list of the Left parties was only in Bengali and Mamata’s own similar press conference was in Bengali.

Language is a highly emotive subject in Bangladesh. Dhaka’s Shaheed Minar in memory of East Bengalis who became martyrs in the fight for their language from 1952 till the creation of Bangladesh is standing proof of how Bangladeshis will view a BJP victory in Bengal in linguistic terms.

Bangladeshis are looking at the outcome of the elections in terms of checks and balances. They know that if a BJP CM succeeds Mamata seven weeks from now, they will probably get the Teesta waters denied to them. But the opportunity cost of not getting water, as seen from Dhaka, is that Muslims feel safe in West Bengal.

In recent years, parents in J&K have been sending their children to Bengal for education because they believe Mamata is a leader who will protect their children. Many of these Kashmiri students have now enrolled in universities in Bangladesh anticipating a BJP government.

Intelligence analysis in Dhaka points to a domestic threat to Bangladesh in case of a change in government in Bengal. In a series of assessments presented to national security officials in Dhaka, agencies tasked with tracking such issues have predicted that any rise in Hindu militancy in Bengal will have an equal reaction within Bangladesh of a rise in domestic Islamic radicalism.

Bangladeshis arriving in Kolkata with a homecoming feeling nurse a sense of hurt over the tougher questioning of their intent at immigration counters in recent years. That it is happening when infiltration and migration to India is falling because of better economic prospects in Bangladesh points to a disconnect in policy-making in New Delhi. At many Chinese airports there are special immigration counters for arriving Taiwanese with boards saying ‘Welcome to our Taiwanese brothers’. Something similar at entry points in Bengal — and similar psychological palliatives — will go a long way in dousing fears across the border if there is a change in government.